Important News

FHFA House Price Index® Up 0.4 Percent in October; Up 1.7 Percent from Last Year

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Key takeaways

  • FHFA HPI: U.S. house prices rose 0.4 percent in October 2025 (month-over-month).
  • Year-over-year: House prices increased 1.7 percent from October 2024 to October 2025.
  • September revision: the previously reported 0.0 percent change for September was revised to a 0.1 percent decline.
  • Regional range (monthly): seasonally adjusted monthly changes ranged from -0.4% (East South Central) to +1.0% (West South Central).
  • Regional range (12-month): 12-month changes ranged from -0.7% (West South Central) to +5.3% (Middle Atlantic).
  • Methodology: the flagship FHFA HPI uses seasonally adjusted, purchase-only data from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; FHFA provides additional indexes using other data sources.
  • Next release: the next HPI report is scheduled for January 27, 2026, and will include data through November 2025.

Follow Up Questions

What exactly is the FHFA House Price Index and how is it calculated?Expand

The FHFA House Price Index (HPI) is a set of numbers that tracks how prices of typical single‑family homes change over time in the U.S. It is a “weighted, repeat‑sales” index: FHFA finds homes that have sold (or been refinanced) more than once and compares their prices across time, then uses a statistical method to average those changes while controlling for differences in home quality. The flagship index uses data on conforming, conventional mortgages for single‑family homes that Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac have purchased or securitized since 1975, and it reports how much the value of a typical home in that sample has gone up or down over a month, quarter, or year.

What does "seasonally adjusted" mean in the context of the HPI?Expand

“Seasonally adjusted” means the index has been statistically corrected to remove regular, predictable patterns that happen at the same time every year—such as more home buying in spring and summer and less in winter—so that month‑to‑month changes mainly reflect underlying market moves rather than normal seasonal swings. FHFA does this using the U.S. Census Bureau’s X‑13 ARIMA procedure, the same type of method many government agencies use for other key economic data.

What does "purchase-only data" mean and why does FHFA use Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac data for the flagship index?Expand

“Purchase‑only data” means the index is based only on mortgages used to buy homes (purchase loans), excluding refinances where owners simply replace an existing loan. For the flagship FHFA HPI, the sample is limited to single‑family homes with conforming, conventional mortgages that Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac have bought or securitized. FHFA uses these data because, as the regulator of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, it has long‑running, detailed, and consistent nationwide records back to 1975, allowing it to build a large, stable, repeat‑sales index; other FHFA index variants add refinances, FHA loans, or county deed records, but the main “purchase‑only” series stays focused on actual sales.

Why was September's previously reported 0.0 percent change revised to a 0.1 percent decline?Expand

The September change was revised from 0.0% to a 0.1% decline because FHFA routinely updates past HPI values as more complete data arrive. There is a built‑in delay: new mortgages typically reach Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac 30–45 days after closing, and the Enterprises also buy some older (“seasoned”) loans. Each time a property shows up again in the data (through a sale or refinance), it can slightly change the estimated average price change for earlier periods, so recent months—like September—are often revised as additional transactions are incorporated.

How should homeowners or prospective buyers interpret a 1.7% year-over-year increase in house prices?Expand

A 1.7% year‑over‑year increase means that, on average, single‑family homes in the conforming‑loan market that FHFA tracks are estimated to be about 1.7% more expensive than they were 12 months earlier. FHFA notes that this “one‑year” change is its best estimate of how much the value of a typical property in the sample has risen over a year, but it is a national average (local markets can differ a lot) and it is not adjusted for inflation—so if consumer prices rose faster than 1.7%, real (inflation‑adjusted) housing values may have been flat or even down.

Which states are included in the West South Central and Middle Atlantic census divisions mentioned in the report?Expand

In the census divisions FHFA cites: • West South Central division: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas. • Middle Atlantic division: New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. These are the standard U.S. Census Bureau groupings that FHFA uses when reporting regional HPI figures.

How does the FHFA HPI differ from other house price measures like Case-Shiller or CoreLogic?Expand

All three (FHFA HPI, Case‑Shiller, and CoreLogic) are repeat‑sales home price indexes, but they differ mainly in data coverage and methodology: • FHFA HPI uses only conforming, conventional mortgages on single‑family homes that Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac purchased or securitized, so it excludes jumbo, FHA/VA, and most cash sales. It is equal‑weighted and provides very broad geographic coverage (nation, regions, states, 400+ metros, counties, ZIP codes). • S&P CoreLogic Case‑Shiller uses public records and related data on arm’s‑length sales of single‑family homes, including non‑conforming and higher‑priced homes; it value‑weights transactions so expensive homes have more influence and focuses mainly on a national index and large‑metro composites. • CoreLogic’s HPI uses public records plus servicing and securities data, covers a wide range of loan types (including many non‑conforming loans and nondisclosure states), and is also a value‑weighted repeat‑sales index available at national, state, metro, and ZIP‑code levels. Because FHFA’s index is limited to the conforming‑loan segment and equal‑weighted, it can show somewhat different growth rates from Case‑Shiller or CoreLogic, which capture a broader and more expensive slice of the market.

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