Treasury International Capital Data for October

The Treasury International Capital (TIC) system is the U.S. Treasury’s reporting system that tracks cross‑border portfolio investment between U.S. residents and foreign residents. It collects monthly and quarterly data on:

• Purchases and sales (flows) of long‑term securities such as U.S. Treasuries, agency bonds, corporate bonds, and stocks, and foreign bonds and stocks
• Holdings (positions) of those securities over time
• Banks’ and other institutions’ cross‑border dollar claims and liabilities, including many short‑term instruments

These data are used to measure how much foreign investors are investing in U.S. financial assets (and vice versa), and feed into official U.S. balance‑of‑payments and international investment‑position statistics.

A “net TIC outflow” means that, in that month, more portfolio capital left the United States than came in, once you add up:

• Foreigners’ net purchases of long‑term U.S. securities,
• Changes in foreign holdings of short‑term dollar‑denominated U.S. securities and related custody liabilities, and
• Changes in U.S. banks’ own net dollar liabilities to foreigners.

In the TIC table this is line 30, “Monthly Net Dollar‑Denominated Portfolio Inflows.” A positive number is a net inflow; a negative number is a net outflow. For October 2025, line 30 is –$37.3 billion, which Treasury describes as a “net TIC outflow of $37.3 billion.”

In TIC data:

• Foreign official institutions are foreign public‑sector investors: mainly central banks, finance ministries/treasuries, other government agencies, and some international and regional organizations that manage official reserves or government funds.
• Foreign private investors are all other foreign holders: commercial banks, broker‑dealers, mutual funds, pension funds, insurers, corporations, hedge funds, and individuals.

TIC tables report separate “private, net” and “official, net” figures for securities and short‑term instruments, reflecting this split between public‑sector and private‑sector foreign investors.

In TIC, custody liabilities are mainly the dollar‑denominated liabilities that U.S. banks and broker‑dealers owe to foreign clients whose assets they hold in custody. This includes foreigners’ holdings of short‑term U.S. securities (like Treasury bills and some other negotiable instruments) and certain “selected other liabilities” managed by U.S. institutions.

Line 22 in the TIC table (“Increase in Foreign Holdings of Dollar‑Denominated Short‑Term U.S. Securities and Other Custody Liabilities”) tracks monthly changes in these amounts. Rising custody liabilities mean foreigners are increasing their short‑term dollar assets held in the U.S., which is an additional source of funding for the U.S. and a signal of demand for safe, liquid U.S. instruments; falling custody liabilities indicate the opposite.

“Banks’ own net dollar‑denominated liabilities” are U.S. banks’ and U.S.‑based broker‑dealers’ net funding position in dollars vis‑à‑vis foreigners, excluding custody balances. It reflects, on a consolidated basis:

• Their dollar liabilities to foreign residents (such as foreign deposits, borrowings, and short‑term securities they have issued), minus
• Their dollar claims on foreign residents (such as loans to foreigners or deposits placed with foreign banks).

In the TIC table this is line 29, “Change in Banks’ Own Net Dollar‑Denominated Liabilities.” A decrease of $76.3 billion in October 2025 means U.S. banks ended the month less net‑indebted to foreigners in dollars than they began. This can happen if, for example, foreign clients withdraw deposits, banks repay or reduce borrowings from abroad, banks shift funding to domestic or non‑dollar sources, or banks expand their dollar lending/claims on foreigners faster than their dollar liabilities rise.

The basic TIC securities data are built from reported cash purchases and sales. Some real‑world ways of acquiring securities do not involve a cash transaction that gets reported to TIC—for example, merger‑related stock‑for‑stock swaps, where a foreign company acquires a U.S. company and pays with its own shares.

Without corrections, TIC would:

• Under‑record foreign acquisitions of U.S. equities via such swaps, and
• Misstate U.S. purchases of foreign equities via similar deals.

Treasury therefore applies statistical adjustments (shown in footnote /5) that add estimated foreign equity acquired through stock swaps, subtract estimated U.S. equity acquired through swaps, and incorporate a few other non‑cash items. These adjustments change the reported net foreign purchases of long‑term securities so they better line up with observed changes in holdings in surveys and in the TIC SLT dataset.

Monthly TIC data show how much foreign capital is moving into or out of U.S. securities and bank funding, but they are backward‑looking (released with about a six‑week lag) and are only one influence on markets.

Interpretation in practice:

• Persistent strong inflows (large positive net TIC inflows) generally indicate solid foreign demand for U.S. assets. Over time this tends to support the U.S. dollar and helps keep U.S. long‑term interest rates lower than they would otherwise be.
• Persistent outflows can signal weaker foreign demand for U.S. assets and, all else equal, can put upward pressure on yields and downward pressure on the dollar.

However, research and market commentary emphasize that:

• Many other factors—Federal Reserve policy, inflation, growth data, and risk sentiment—usually dominate day‑to‑day moves in interest rates and exchange rates.
• Because TIC is delayed, it more often explains past moves or confirms trends than causes immediate price changes, though bond and FX traders may react if the data are very different from expectations.