Administration says U.S. had negative net migration in 2025

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The statement is not 100% exact but close enough for a reasonable person (e.g., claimed 70% vs. actual 65%). Learn more in Methodology.

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Official U.S. migration statistics (e.g., DHS, Census) show net migration was negative for calendar year 2025 (more people leaving than entering).

Source summary
The White House published a 365-item list of achievements the administration says were completed during President Donald J. Trump’s first 365 days back in office. The claims cover a wide range of actions and outcomes — immigration enforcement and a declared border emergency; crime reductions and new law-enforcement measures; economic and trade policies; energy and environmental rollbacks; and multiple foreign-policy and national security actions. The document is a White House account of the administration’s priorities and asserted results.
Latest fact check

Multiple independent analyses (Brookings Institution estimate and several news outlets) conclude that net international migration in 2025 was very low and likely negative, with Brookings estimating net flows between -295,000 and -10,000 for calendar year 2025. Other credible sources (including a CBO demographic report and major media coverage) report different estimates and higher uncertainty — CBO’s January 2026 outlook implies positive net migration for 2025 (around +400,000) and thus conflicts with the claim. Because reputable expert estimates disagree and government data remain incomplete or methodologically adjusted, the statement that the administration definitively “achieved negative net migration in 2025” is close to accurate in some expert analyses but not conclusively established by official data and is disputed by other high-quality estimates. Verdict: Close — Brookings and several analysts support negative net migration in 2025, but CBO and other sources differ, so the claim is not unambiguously established by official statistics.

1 month, 16 days
Next scheduled update: Apr 01, 2026
1 month, 16 days

Timeline

  1. Scheduled follow-up · Apr 01, 2026
  2. Completion due · Apr 01, 2026
  3. Update · Jan 21, 2026, 01:17 AMClose
    Multiple independent analyses (Brookings Institution estimate and several news outlets) conclude that net international migration in 2025 was very low and likely negative, with Brookings estimating net flows between -295,000 and -10,000 for calendar year 2025. Other credible sources (including a CBO demographic report and major media coverage) report different estimates and higher uncertainty — CBO’s January 2026 outlook implies positive net migration for 2025 (around +400,000) and thus conflicts with the claim. Because reputable expert estimates disagree and government data remain incomplete or methodologically adjusted, the statement that the administration definitively “achieved negative net migration in 2025” is close to accurate in some expert analyses but not conclusively established by official data and is disputed by other high-quality estimates. Verdict: Close — Brookings and several analysts support negative net migration in 2025, but CBO and other sources differ, so the claim is not unambiguously established by official statistics.
  4. Original article · Jan 20, 2026

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