Analyses estimate roughly $50 billion in additional taxpayer savings from the new tax law

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Independent analyses or IRS data show aggregate taxpayer savings increase by about $50 billion attributable to the law (via larger refunds or lower 2026 tax liabilities).

Source summary

The White House says the Working Families Tax Cuts Act will produce the largest U.S. tax-refund season on record, with average refunds projected to rise by roughly $1,000 or more for many filers. Multiple news outlets and analysts cited in the statement (including CBS, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, Business Insider and CNBC) estimate increases ranging from roughly 15–30% and note some provisions are retroactive to the start of the year. The administration highlights provisions such as "No Tax on Tips," "No Tax on Overtime," and elimination of tax on Social Security benefits, and points taxpayers to IRS resources for filing guidance.

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Latest fact check

Oxford Economics (lead economist Nancy Vanden Houten) published an analysis in October 2025 saying that total taxpayer savings from the new tax law could amount to about $50 billion through larger refunds or lower 2026 tax bills; major news outlets (CBS News) and other analysts reported the same estimate. The IRS Data Book and IRS filing-season statistics support the baseline figure cited: the IRS reported roughly $275 billion in refunds to individuals in FY2024 (and IRS filing-season reporting for the 2025 filing season showed ~94 million individual refunds in that filing season), so the White House’s statement accurately reflects the Oxford estimate and the IRS refund totals used for the percentage calculation. Verdict: True — the $50 billion estimate is attributable to Oxford Economics and the IRS refund totals cited match public IRS data.

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Timeline

Update · Jan 27, 2026, 05:16 AMTrue
Oxford Economics (lead economist Nancy Vanden Houten) published an analysis in October 2025 saying that total taxpayer savings from the new tax law could amount to about $50 billion through larger refunds or lower 2026 tax bills; major news outlets (CBS News) and other analysts reported the same estimate. The IRS Data Book and IRS filing-season statistics support the baseline figure cited: the IRS reported roughly $275 billion in refunds to individuals in FY2024 (and IRS filing-season reporting for the 2025 filing season showed ~94 million individual refunds in that filing season), so the White House’s statement accurately reflects the Oxford estimate and the IRS refund totals used for the percentage calculation. Verdict: True — the $50 billion estimate is attributable to Oxford Economics and the IRS refund totals cited match public IRS data.
Original article · Jan 26, 2026
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