Administration says real private-sector weekly earnings are on track to rise 4% (about $1,100) in the president's first full year

False

Credible evidence contradicts the statement. Learn more in Methodology.

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Check official earnings and inflation-adjusted compensation statistics for the referenced 12-month period to confirm a 4% increase in real private-sector weekly earnings and an estimated $1,100 real wage gain.

Source summary

The White House cites new BLS data showing core inflation came in below economists' expectations and says inflation is under control while real wages are rising. The administration attributes lower inflation and faster wage growth to President Trump’s policies, noting headline and core inflation running at 2.4% and projected real private-sector weekly earnings up about 4% (roughly $1,100) in his first full year. Bloomberg is quoted as describing the lower core inflation as a sign of cooling price growth and noting vehicle prices have declined.

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Latest fact check

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data do not support the claim that real private‑sector weekly earnings are “on track to rise 4%” in President Trump’s first full year in office, nor that this implies about an $1,100 real wage gain for the average private‑sector worker.

The official BLS Real Earnings release for December 2025 – the latest data covering essentially Trump’s first full calendar year in office – reports that for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, real average weekly earnings rose 1.1% from December 2024 to December 2025, not 4%. For production and nonsupervisory workers, real average weekly earnings increased 1.0% over the same period.

Earlier in the year, the January 2025 Real Earnings release showed real average weekly earnings up 0.7% year‑over‑year (January 2024–January 2025). Across 2025, the pattern in BLS releases is of real weekly earnings increasing by roughly 1% over the year, not approaching 4%.

Moreover, to generate an inflation‑adjusted gain of about $1,100 per worker from a 4% rise in real weekly earnings would require a baseline of around $27,500 in real annual earnings (because 4% of $27,500 ≈ $1,100). BLS data for average weekly earnings of all private‑sector employees in current dollars show December 2025 nominal average weekly earnings of about $1,266, or roughly $65,800 annualized, and real weekly gains of about 1.1% in 1982‑84 dollars; these figures are inconsistent with the claim of a 4% real increase translating into $1,100 per worker.

Given that the best available official data show approximately a 1% real increase in private‑sector weekly earnings over Trump’s first full year, not 4%, and that the implied $1,100 gain is not supported by BLS levels, the statement is factually incorrect.

Verdict: False, because official BLS statistics show real private‑sector weekly earnings rising by about 1% over Trump’s first full year in office, far below the claimed 4%, and the implied $1,100 real wage gain does not align with the BLS earnings levels.

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Update · Jan 13, 2026, 11:13 PMFalse
Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data do not support the claim that real private‑sector weekly earnings are “on track to rise 4%” in President Trump’s first full year in office, nor that this implies about an $1,100 real wage gain for the average private‑sector worker. The official BLS Real Earnings release for December 2025 – the latest data covering essentially Trump’s first full calendar year in office – reports that for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, real average weekly earnings rose 1.1% from December 2024 to December 2025, not 4%. For production and nonsupervisory workers, real average weekly earnings increased 1.0% over the same period. Earlier in the year, the January 2025 Real Earnings release showed real average weekly earnings up 0.7% year‑over‑year (January 2024–January 2025). Across 2025, the pattern in BLS releases is of real weekly earnings increasing by roughly 1% over the year, not approaching 4%. Moreover, to generate an inflation‑adjusted gain of about $1,100 per worker from a 4% rise in real weekly earnings would require a baseline of around $27,500 in real annual earnings (because 4% of $27,500 ≈ $1,100). BLS data for average weekly earnings of all private‑sector employees in current dollars show December 2025 nominal average weekly earnings of about $1,266, or roughly $65,800 annualized, and real weekly gains of about 1.1% in 1982‑84 dollars; these figures are inconsistent with the claim of a 4% real increase translating into $1,100 per worker. Given that the best available official data show approximately a 1% real increase in private‑sector weekly earnings over Trump’s first full year, not 4%, and that the implied $1,100 gain is not supported by BLS levels, the statement is factually incorrect. Verdict: False, because official BLS statistics show real private‑sector weekly earnings rising by about 1% over Trump’s first full year in office, far below the claimed 4%, and the implied $1,100 real wage gain does not align with the BLS earnings levels.
Original article · Jan 13, 2026
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