Evidence is incomplete or still developing; a future update may resolve it. Learn more in Methodology.
National crime statistics and official data sources (e.g., FBI/UCR or CDC/NCHS reports, state/city crime reports) confirm a one-year drop in homicides in 2025 and quantify its magnitude compared with prior years.
Available evidence suggests that U.S. homicides in 2025 very likely experienced a historically large year‑over‑year decline, but final, comprehensive federal data have not yet been released, and the pattern in specific cities relative to federal immigration or crime‑crackdown operations is not clearly established in rigorous analyses.
Preliminary data compiled by crime analyst Jeff Asher (AH Datalytics) and cited by multiple outlets (ABC News, UPI, others) indicate that murders fell roughly 18–20% nationwide in 2025 versus 2024, which they characterize as likely the largest single‑year drop on record since FBI data began in 1960, surpassing the already large declines in 2022–2024. However, that assessment remains provisional until the FBI’s official 2025 crime report is published, and experts explicitly note it is based on a sample of about 550 agencies rather than finalized national totals.
Claims that the steepest homicide drops occurred specifically in cities where the Trump administration carried out “targeted immigration enforcement and crime‑prevention operations” are assertions of a particular geographic pattern and policy effect; no high‑quality, independent research or official analysis yet isolates such cities and shows their homicide trends were distinctly stronger than comparable jurisdictions after adjusting for broader national and post‑pandemic trends. Without transparent, peer‑reviewed evaluation of those operations and city‑level homicide data, this causal and comparative claim cannot be verified.
Verdict: Unclear, because while preliminary expert analyses support the possibility of a record one‑year national homicide decline in 2025, the statement goes beyond current verified data (final FBI figures are not out yet) and asserts a specific policy‑linked city pattern that has not been demonstrated in credible, independent research.