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Update · Feb 13, 2026, 01:11 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The detailed framing mirrors a broader, high-level agreement reported by multiple outlets rather than a binding contract text. In practice, the basis for the figure rests on statements by Treasury officials about a negotiated framework rather than a formal contract.
What progress exists: Public reporting indicates that China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the current season (through January 2026) and committed to purchases totaling 25 million metric tons annually for the following three years as part of a broader agreement reached in late 2025. Reuters and AP corroborate the near-term level, and AP notes the three-year 25 MMT annual commitment as part of the deal.
Current status and milestones: As of February 2026, the market-facing progress shows China resuming substantial U.S. soybean purchases and a stated framework targeting 25 MMT per year for three years, beginning with the current season’s 12 MMT. There is no public, formal multi-year contract disclosed that guarantees the exact annual flow beyond the declarative commitment reported by officials. Milestones to watch include actual shipments reaching 25 MMT per year in each of the 2026–2027, 2027–2028, and 2028–2029 crop years, and any adjustments related to tariffs or pricing terms.
Evidence and sources: The core claims are supported by coverage from Reuters (Oct 2025) and the Associated Press (Oct 2025 and Feb 2026), which cite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and describe the 12 MMT near-term purchases plus a 25 MMT annual target for the subsequent three years. The Treasury press materials reproduced in the article metadata also reference the framework. These are among the most reputable public sources available for this topic.
Reliability assessment: The sources are high-quality, mainstream outlets with standard fact-checking norms. Given the political and economic incentives surrounding U.S.-China trade and soybean farmers, readers should treat the 25 MMT figure as a stated commitment within a negotiated framework rather than an ironclad, legally binding obligation unless a formal contract is published. The status remains contingent on follow-through in actual monthly/quarterly purchases and any policy adjustments.
Follow-up note: Monitor official statements and trade data for 2026–2029 to verify whether annual purchases consistently reach or exceed 25 million metric tons and to confirm any changes to tariff regimes or verification mechanisms. Follow-up date: 2028-01-01.
Update · Feb 13, 2026, 11:32 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The broader public record around late-2025 framed a 25 MMT per-year target as part of a U.S.–China deal, with Treasury remarks tying the framework to such purchases. Public quotes from officials and outlets connected the 25 MMT figure to commitments through 2028.
Update · Feb 13, 2026, 09:13 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: A new trade framework allegedly obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public confirmations from late 2025 indicate China and
the United States agreed to a three-year framework under which China would buy 25 million metric tons annually, with an initial tranche of roughly 12 million tons by the end of the first period. Reporting from AP cites Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussing the 25 million-ton annual commitment, and notes the arrangement lasts three years. Market-focused coverage describes ongoing purchases and the rollout timing through early 2026, consistent with the three-year horizon.
Current status: As of February 2026, outlets frame the agreement as in effect and moving toward the full 25 MMT annual target, though public data show pacing challenges in late 2025. The AP piece explicitly states the three-year duration, starting with 12 million tons and continuing toward the 25 MMT annual target. Overall, there is no credible public information indicating cancellation or renegotiation, but progress may fluctuate with market conditions.
Milestones and reliability: Key milestones include the 12 million-ton initial purchase window and the 25 MMT annual target through 2028. Sources cited (AP, CNBC) are mainstream outlets; AP’s report quotes U.S. officials, lending credibility to the commitments. Given the absence of a formal independent ledger, reported progress should be understood as implementation of the framework rather than audited figures.
Source reliability note: The principal sources are AP News and CNBC, both reputable outlets with editorial standards. The claim relies on statements from U.S. officials and official USDA data; cross-checks show consistent progress toward the 25 MMT target through early 2026. Overall, reporting supports ongoing implementation rather than a concluded completion at this stage.
Update · Feb 13, 2026, 05:39 AMin_progress
What the claim stated: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. What the evidence shows about progress: Public reporting from AP News (Oct 2025) and subsequent coverage indicate China announced a commitment to buy 25 million metric tons per year for three years, with an initial tranche (roughly 12 million metric tons) to be purchased soon. Treasury remarks (Jan 8, 2026) reaffirmed the framework, but did not independently verify ongoing annual purchases beyond the stated commitment. What is known about milestones and status: The deal was reported as active in late 2025, with milestones involving an initial surge and a three-year commitment; as of early 2026, independent confirmation of year-by-year fulfillment beyond the initial tranche has not been consistently documented in major outlets. Reliability note: Reports come from AP News and U.S. Treasury remarks; coverage varies on whether the annual 25 million metric ton target has been met each year, reflecting the typical gap between announcements and verifiable shipment data.
Update · Feb 13, 2026, 03:56 AMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This commitment was described as binding for three consecutive years beginning with the current/near-term period.
Evidence of progress: AP News reported on Oct 30, 2025 that China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually for three years, starting with a 12 million-ton tranche to be purchased by January 2026, as part of the agreement. This provides an explicit near-term milestone and an ongoing commitment for the subsequent years. The Treasury press materials from January 8, 2026 also referenced the framework in the context of policy announcements, reinforcing that the agreement existed and was being cited by U.S. officials.
Current status and milestones: As of early 2026, a partial milestone had been reached with an initial 12 million metric tons slated for purchase by January 2026. The three-year, 25 million-ton annual target was described as the ongoing obligation for the subsequent years, but whether the full annual target has been met in each of the following years would require full-year purchase data and official confirmations for 2026, 2027, and 2028. Independent trade analyses noted the agreement as a three-year program, with markets watching for actual shipment and payment data.
Reliability and context of sources: The AP report is a widely used, reputable wire service with standard fact-checking practices. The Treasury press release page presents the speech content, but the speech itself appears to be part of a political address rather than a formal treaty or binding annex; nonetheless, AP corroborates the 25 million metric tons figure and the three-year framing. Given the policy incentives and stated commitments, the reporting aligns with the public claims; ongoing verification would benefit from official U.S. trade data and
Chinese import data when available.
Bottom line on the status: The claim is not fully completed as of 2026-02-12. There is an explicit near-term milestone (12 million metric tons by early 2026) and a stated annual commitment of 25 million metric tons for three years, which suggests progress is moving toward completion but remains pending for full annual fulfillment in each year. The available reporting labels the framework as in progress with milestones to be tracked through 2026–2028.
Update · Feb 13, 2026, 02:17 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: A new trade framework would obligate
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence: The Treasury release (Jan 8, 2026) states the 25 million metric tons per year figure within the framework; AP News coverage and other outlets reported the commitment as part of the agreement announced by Treasury officials. Status: No independently verified, year-by-year purchase totals for 2026–2028 have been published, so the completion condition remains unconfirmed and progress is best described as an agreement with an intended purchasing target rather than a completed delivery schedule.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 11:39 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article states that under a new U.S.-China trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress and evidence: Public reporting from late 2025 indicates China committed to purchases that would total at least 25 million metric tons per year through 2028, with an initial tranche of 12 million metric tons in late 2025 as part of the broader deal. Treasury remarks and subsequent coverage framed 25 MMT per year as the conditional target for 2026–2028, contingent on ongoing implementation. Key outlets reporting on this trajectory include AP (cited by Treasury and other outlets), CNBC, and Agri/business briefing sites.
Status as of 2026-02-12: The framework appears to be in place and progressing toward the 25 MMT annual target, but public confirmation of year-by-year deliveries for 2026 and beyond remains contingent on ongoing execution and verification of purchases. No definitive public record shows the full three-year milestone completed; the arrangement is described as in force with milestones tied to each year rather than a one-time completion.
Reliability and caveats: The core sources are Treasury press materials and major financial/news outlets reporting on U.S.-China trade commitments. While multiple outlets align on the 25 MMT annual target for 2026–2028, observers note that concrete shipment data and enforcement details are essential to verify completion. Given incentives on both sides (agriculture exports for the U.S.; broader trade and geopolitical considerations for China), ongoing verification remains important to assess true adherence.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 07:17 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The Treasury and White House communications tied to the deal have echoed a 25 million metric ton annual purchase commitment for a multi-year period. Key cited source material originates from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and accompanying press materials. (Treasury SB0353, 2026-01-08; AP coverage 2025-10 to 2025-12).
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 04:33 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article asserted that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public statements tied to this pledge originated from late-2025 reporting about a China-U.S. trade truce and were echoed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. The Treasury release frames the matter as part of remarks rather than a legally binding treaty, and subsequent coverage treats the commitment as an announced purchasing target rather than a verified, ongoing compliance regime.
What progress exists: Independent reporting confirms China resumed U.S. soybean purchases after late-October talks, with roughly 12 million metric tons bought by January 2026, fulfilling a pledged near-term target to reach that volume by February 2026. Reuters attributes the 12 million tonnes to state stockpilers Sinograin and COFCO, and notes the White House described the agreement as lasting three years with an annual 25 million-ton goal. AP corroborates the 25 million-ton figure but describes the initial 12 million-ton step as part of the same framework.
Completion status: As of mid-February 2026, publicly verifiable evidence shows partial progress—China had reached the 12 million-ton mark toward the near-term window—while no independent source confirms that China is reliably purchasing 25 million metric tons every year for 2026–2028. The consensus is that the 25 million-ton figure is the target, not a completed, enforceable intake to date.
Dates and milestones: October 2025 marked the initial framing of the 25 million-ton annual target for three years. By January 20, 2026, Reuters reported China had bought about 12 million metric tons, meeting a pledge to reach that volume by February 2026. The three-year commitment remains in progress with continued purchases anticipated but not independently verified for the full span.
Reliability of sources: The claim is corroborated by AP and Reuters, with Treasury remarks framing the figure as part of a framework rather than a binding obligation. Reuters provides a market-based account of purchases by state actors, strengthening the picture of partial progress rather than full execution.
Incentives and context: State actors and stockpiling dynamics shape the purchasing pattern, with incentives for China to stabilize imports and for the U.S. to secure farm demand. Ongoing verification will be needed to confirm whether the completion condition is met in subsequent years.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 02:32 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article’s claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The claim appears to originate from a Treasury speech in January 2026, which asserted that
Beijing would buy 25 million tons annually for 2026–2028. There is no publicly released text of a binding agreement or official multi-year purchase pact confirming such a framework at that time. Treasury remarks framed the expectation in a political context rather than a formal treaty document (SB0353 press content).
Evidence of progress: As of early February 2026, there is limited verifiable evidence that a binding three-year purchase commitment of 25 million metric tons per year has been implemented or publicly recorded. Private sector trackers and trade analysis have discussed China’s soybean purchases and possible targets, but they largely rely on USDA export sales data and private market signals rather than an official text. Agri-Pulse summarized private and government disclosures suggesting China had made substantial purchases in late 2025 and into 2026, but did not confirm a formal 25 Mt/year commitment for 2026–2028.
Completion status: There is no public confirmation that China has legally committed to purchase no less than 25 Mt of soybeans annually for three consecutive years as of February 2026. Public reporting indicates ongoing trading activity and sizable purchases, but no definitive document showing a three-year, calendar-year–aligned obligation has been released. Given the absence of a formal text and independent verification, the completion condition remains unmet or unverified to date.
Dates and milestones: The Treasury speech dated January 8, 2026, is the notable milestone articulating the 25 Mt/year figure. Reported market tracking in early 2026 notes ongoing purchases and price effects tied to private expectations, but they do not establish a formal milestone proving a binding three-year commitment. If a formal framework exists, it has not been publicly disclosed with a text or schedule that can be independently verified.
Reliability and sources: The central assertion relies on a political speech rather than an independently verifiable treaty or official trade agreement. The Treasury remarks (SB0353) are a primary source for the claim but reflect the speaker’s framing and incentives. Private sector trade coverage (e.g., Agri-Pulse) provides context on purchases but does not confirm a legally enforceable 25 Mt/year framework. Consequently, readers should treat the claim as unverified and contingent on future official documentation.
Follow-up note: Given the potential significance for
American farmers, a reliable update should be sought after a formal agreement text or official USDA/Commerce confirmation—target follow-up by 2027-01-01 to assess whether the three-year purchase commitment was completed or fell short.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 01:02 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The article claims that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: Reports from major outlets indicate that China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the current season and to purchase 25 million metric tons annually for the following three years, as part of a high-level trade agreement announced in late 2025 (e.g., Reuters; AP). These pieces place the commitment as starting with an initial 12 million by January and continuing at 25 million per year for three years.
Milestones and status: The agreement has begun implementation with an initial purchase, and the 25 MMT annual target is slated for the next three years. As of February 2026, the three-year window has begun but is not yet complete; a final completion cannot be declared at this time. The claim is plausibly supported by contemporaneous reporting, though exact contractual wording and compliance details may vary.
Source reliability note: Reuters and AP are reputable, with on-record attribution to Treasury officials and senior U.S. policymakers. They provide credible confirmation of the framework and milestones as of late 2025, though ongoing verification will be needed to confirm year-by-year adherence.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 11:18 AMin_progress
The claim asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, beginning with a three-year commitment. Publicly available reporting ties the figure to statements by Treasury officials describing an agreement with China on soybean purchases, including an initial year purchase and an annual target of 25 million metric tons for the following two years. The most widely cited articulation of the promise comes from Treasury remarks and contemporaneous coverage describing a three-year term.
Evidence of progress toward the promise includes contemporaneous confirmations that China agreed to 12 million metric tons in the initial period and a longer-term target of 25 million metric tons annually for the subsequent years, as reported by AP News and other outlets in late October 2025. Subsequent public posts and Treasury materials through early 2026 continue to reference the framework and the annual target, though they do not independently verify each month’s actual purchases. No authoritative, public update in early 2026 confirms consummation of the full annual 25 million-ton commitments for each year thus far.
Based on available sourcing, the arrangement appears to be an ongoing multi-year commitment rather than a completed, closed transaction to date. The 2025 AP report and Treasury remarks frame the deal as active and scheduled to run for three years, with a defined start and milestone purchases (including the initial 12 million tons). There is no public record of formal termination or renegotiation to date, but verifiable evidence of monthly or quarterly fulfillment beyond the initial period remains limited.
Key dates and milestones include the October 2025 reported agreement (starting purchases with 12 million tons) and the stated three-year duration, which would extend through late 2028. Concrete, verifiable milestones such as quarterly purchase totals or official confirmations from Treasury or the
Chinese side are not consistently available in public sources. The reliability of the claim rests on statements from Treasury officials and major outlets summarizing those statements, which are credible but require ongoing verification for yearly fulfillment.
Source reliability: The core claims derive from official U.S. Treasury remarks and high-quality, mainstream reporting (AP News). While AP provides timely, independent coverage, and Treasury materials are primary sources for the policy frame, there is still a need for independent validation of actual annual purchase volumes as the agreement progresses. Overall, the reporting supports the existence and structure of a three-year target, but definitive progress updates should be sought periodically from Treasury or the White House for precise fulfillment status.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 09:09 AMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts a new trade framework obligates
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Public reporting indicates a 12 million-ton buy in late 2025 and a stated goal of 25 million tons annually for 2026–2028 (AP News, 2025; farmdoc daily, 2025).
Progress indicators: Coverage shows China resumed sizable U.S. soybean purchases after the suspension, with the framework designed to sustain 25 MMT per year through 2028, subject to market and policy factors (AP News, 2025; Purdue center for commercial agriculture, farmdoc daily, 2025).
Completion status: As of 2026-02-11 there is no public evidence of formal completion or annual tallies confirming every year’s 25 MMT, but the arrangement remains described as a multi-year commitment rather than a completed, fixed-output contract.
Dates and milestones:
Milestones include the 12 MMT initial purchase in late 2025 and the ongoing three-year commitment through 2028, with official Treasury remarks framing the framework within broader economic policy (AP News, 2025; Treasury remarks, 2026).
Source reliability and incentives: Reports from AP News and Purdue’s farmdoc daily are credible; Treasury materials provide official framing but lack granular year-by-year shipment data. Incentives include U.S. farmers restoring access to China’s market and China securing feedstock for its livestock sector, making the continued 25 MMT objective plausible but not yet verified year-by-year.
Reliability note: The conclusion relies on credible public reporting and official framing; ongoing updates would be needed to confirm annual fulfillment through 2028.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 04:33 AMin_progress
The claim asserts a binding obligation for
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years under a new trade framework. Public reporting shows that the White House and Treasury officials framed a 25 MMT annual pledge as part of a late-2025/early-2026 trade truce, with China reportedly resuming purchases and meeting a 12 MMT target as of January 2026. While multiple outlets cite the 25 MMT annual commitment, there is no independently verifiable enforcement mechanism or final, formalized text confirming a legally binding three-year purchase requirement, leaving completion status uncertain. Ongoing coverage from Reuters and AP suggests progress on initial purchases, but the three-year commitment remains contingent on future actions and renewals.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 03:08 AMin_progress
What the claim states: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This was presented as an agreed-upon commitment to restore pre-impasse trade levels for U.S. soy exports to China.
Progress evidence: Public reporting indicates China’s commitment began with an initial purchase of about 12 million metric tons by early 2026, followed by an ongoing framework under which purchases would total at least 25 million metric tons annually for three years, as described by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in late October 2025 and reiterated by outlets including AP. The Treasury and White House framing around this deal appears in coverage from late 2025 and early 2026.
Milestones and current status: The key milestone is the start of deliveries—12 million MT of U.S. soybeans in the near term (through January 2026)—with the long-run obligation of at least 25 MT per year for the three-year period. Reports indicate the arrangement was designed to be in effect for three consecutive years, subject to the broader trade framework discussed during President Trump’s diplomacy efforts. As of February 11, 2026, the arrangement appears to be ongoing and not reported as canceled or completed.
Dates and concrete details: The initial 12 million MT tranche was described to occur by January 2026, with annual purchases of 25 million MT for the subsequent two years (i.e., through 2027). The framework was tied to a broader trade agreement announced during late-2025 discussions. These figures come from reputable outlets synthesizing Treasury remarks (AP, 2025-10-30; follow-up coverage in early 2026).
Source reliability note: The assessment relies on established reporting from Associated Press corroborating Treasury statements and public remarks, which are high-quality, nonpartisan outlets. While some outlets echoed the claim with varying framing, the AP coverage explicitly states the three-year commitment and the 12-million-ton initial tier, supporting the credibility of the status update. The Treasury press page (SB0353) provides contemporaneous official context, though the quoted line is embedded in remarks rather than a standalone treaty text.
Update · Feb 12, 2026, 01:27 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This framing appears in a Treasury remarks piece dated January 8, 2026, attributed to Secretary Scott Bessent, and is echoed in subsequent coverage of a 2025–2028 purchase commitment. The claim is presented as a binding condition within a stated framework, but independent verification of a formal, legally binding three-year obligation remains unclear.
Public reporting since late 2025 has described a deal in which China would buy at least 25 million MT annually through 2028, with earlier months detailing an initial ramp-up and a multi-year commitment. These accounts come from outlets including AP, CNBC, and farm-policy analyses, often citing White House or Treasury briefings and summaries. However, these reports differ in emphasis and precise drafting, and they do not consistently reflect a universally agreed text with enforceable terms.
As of February 2026, there is no widely corroborated, independently verifiable government document or international agreement posted publicly confirming a legally binding three-year minimum purchase total of 25
MT per year. While multiple outlets report the 25 MT figure as part of a broader deal, the absence of a formal, accessible text and later independent confirmations means progress toward completion remains uncertain and unconfirmed in the public record.
Reliability notes: the Treasury remarks page containing the asserted 25 MT framework is an official U.S. government source, but it is a speech rather than a formal treaty. Independent reporting (AP, CNBC, AgWeb, FarmDocDaily) references the same broad pattern but treats it as contingent on subsequent details and approvals. Given the lack of a publicly available, enforceable text and official updates confirming three consecutive annual commitments, the claim should be considered in_progress pending verifiable milestones or a formal instrument.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 11:13 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting in late 2025 described an agreement wherein China would purchase 25 million metric tons annually for the following three years, with some accounts noting an initial 12 million metric tons in late 2025 and a schedule to reach 25 million annually thereafter (AP News, Farmdoc Daily, DTN). The Treasury release itself asserts the framework and its terms, but does not independently confirm actual on-the-ground compliance dates or quantities beyond the stated commitment. The available sources indicate the framework was announced or described by U.S. officials and analysts, not that the full three-year purchase obligation has been completed or fully executed.
Current status: As of February 11, 2026, there is no widely corroborated public record showing China has definitively completed three consecutive years of purchases meeting or exceeding 25 million metric tons each year under this framework. Some reports reiterate the commitment and provide indicative timelines, but actual shipment and purchase data for 2026 remain unclear or not publicly verified. Independent farm-economic analyses acknowledge the policy as a stated goal rather than a completed, verifiable tranche of purchases.
Dates and milestones: The public discourse centers on an October 2025 framing of a 25 MMT annual purchase for three years, with initial 12 MMT in late 2025 referenced by multiple outlets. No confirmed official release or government-maintained milestone schedule beyond those press statements has been publicly verified as of early 2026. Market-focused analyses note price and volume expectations tied to those commitments, but concrete, independently verifiable milestones for 2026–2028 have not been publicly authenticated.
Source reliability: The Treasury press release provides the framing of the agreement, but the key factual detail—whether China has begun and will sustain purchases at 25 MMT annually—lacks independent verification in primary sources beyond media reporting. Reputable outlets (AP News, farm-policy specialists) provide context and analysis, though coverage largely reflects statements and interpretations rather than a documented execution log. Given incentives in political communications and trade negotiations, I treated the claim with caution and prioritized corroboration from multiple independent outlets when evaluating progress.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 08:41 PMin_progress
What the claim states: A new trade framework obligates
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. The underlying arrangement, as reported by major outlets, sets an initial 12 million metric tons purchase by early 2026 and commits to 25 million metric tons annually for the three-year span. This framing positions U.S. soybean sales as a central element of the broader deal with China. The claim, therefore, rests on an agreement announced in late 2025 and referenced by Treasury officials in early 2026.
What evidence exists of progress: Public reporting indicates that China agreed to the 25 MMT annual target as part of an October 2025 agreement announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. AP notes that the initial 12 MMT was to be purchased by January 2026, with the three-year 25 MMT annual target continuing thereafter. Media coverage from late 2025 and early 2026 confirms the framework was in effect and being implemented. The Treasury press materials from January 8, 2026, reiterate the framework’s commitments.
Progress toward the completion condition: The arrangement is described as lasting three years, beginning with the initial shipments in late 2025/early 2026. As of February 2026, two key milestones are in play: (1) an initial 12 MMT tranche apparently underway by January 2026, and (2) an ongoing obligation to reach 25 MMT annually for each of the three years. There is no evidence yet that the three-year period has concluded; the status remains ongoing and contingent on continued adherence by both sides.
Dates and milestones: October 30, 2025 – China agrees to purchase 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans annually for three years, with 12 MMT to begin by January 2026 (AP reporting). January 8, 2026 – Treasury remarks reference the framework and its three-year purchase commitment. February 2026 – public reporting continues to describe the program as in progress, with annual 25 MMT targets for the three-year window.
Reliability and balance of sources: The key claim is corroborated by AP reporting on the October 2025 agreement and by Treasury remarks in January 2026 describing the framework. Coverage from other reputable outlets (e.g., AgWeb, Reuters-type summaries) aligns with the same core details, though AP remains the most direct contemporaneous source. Taken together, the sources present a consistent picture of an in-progress agreement with clearly stated purchase targets for the three-year period.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 07:18 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts a new trade framework obligates
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting frames this as a multi-year commitment tied to U.S.–China trade discussions, with 25 MMT annually beginning in the post-agreement period.
Evidence of progress: Reports in late 2025 attributed an agreement whereby China would purchase 25 MMT annually for three years, with Treasury and White House spokespeople highlighting the figure. Treasury remarks in January 2026 reiterate the framework and the purchase target, anchoring the claim in official statements. These items establish milestones but do not, by themselves, constitute independent verification of three full years of purchases.
Current status: There is explicit mention of the 25 MMT annual target in public briefings, but no independently audited, year-by-year purchase record for all three years available as of 2026-02-11. The completion condition—three consecutive years of at least 25 MMT—remains unconfirmed in high-quality sources, so the status should be described as in_progress.
Key dates and milestones: October 30, 2025 (initial reporting of the 25 MMT/three-year commitment) and January 8, 2026 (Treasury remarks reiterating the framework). Final verification would require official trade data or credible third-party analyses covering 2026–2028.
Reliability note: Coverage from AP and Treasury communications provides credible sourcing for the claim, but independent confirmation of annual purchase totals is needed to confirm completion. The incentives of political actors and institutions suggest careful interpretation of the stated commitments until audited data are available.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 04:39 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article claimed that under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: Public reporting in late 2025 indicated an agreement where China would buy 12 MMT initially and 25 MMT annually for the following three years (through 2028), with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent citing the deal. Reliability: AP and republished summaries corroborate the 25 MMT/year figure and three-year horizon, though official, contemporaneous government records are not unequivocally explicit in some passages. Status: The arrangement appears to be in a preparatory/implementation phase, with multiple outlets framing it as a three-year commitment but without a fully auditable public ledger of binding milestones to date. If realized, the completion would occur annually for three consecutive years starting after the initial purchases, but formal fulfillment dates are not clearly established in official documents available publicly. Follow-up note: Monitor primary coverage from AP and Treasury disclosures as the 2026–2028 period unfolds to confirm annual 25 MMT purchases.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 02:39 PMin_progress
Restated claim: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. The Treasury-linked framing in the source article aligns with later reporting that China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually for a three-year span, starting with an initial tranche of about 12 million metric tons. Multiple outlets have echoed this structure in late-2025 reporting.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 01:03 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The article asserts a new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The claim cites remarks by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent describing an agreement and is echoed in subsequent coverage. Evidence shows China began buying and a 12 million-ton initial tranche was expected, with the three-year frame to reach 25 million tons annually, but independent verification of a binding, three-year completion is not clearly documented as of early 2026.
Progress evidence: AP reported in late 2025 that China agreed to purchase 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with an initial 12 million tons to be bought by January 2026. CNBC noted resumed purchases and progress toward the 12 million-ton target by February 2026, while acknowledging the broader 25 million-ton annual target as part of the deal. Overall, volumes have been partial and evolving, with no definitive completion publicized by February 2026.
Completion status: The available reporting indicates partial progress rather than final completion. While the framework exists and initial purchases occurred, the three-year obligation to reach 25 million tons annually has not been publicly verified as completed for all three years by the current date. Ongoing trade talks and shipments remain the key factors.
Dates and milestones: The deal dates to late 2025, with 12 million tons planned by early 2026 and a three-year horizon for 25 million tons annually. Weather, harvest timing, and market dynamics can influence actual shipments, and official verification of full completion remains pending.
Reliability note: Reporting from AP and CNBC provides credible, corroborated context, but no single primary source confirms a legally binding, fully completed three-year fulfillment as of early 2026. Monitor USDA export data and new Treasury or White House statements for updates.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 11:15 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting in late 2025 indicated China agreed to a framework including annual purchases of 25 million metric tons, with Treasury officials and media outlets citing the arrangement (AP News, 2025-10-30; related coverage). The Treasury remarks dated 2026-01-08 reiterate the framework and the 25 MMT per year target for three years, but a fully public, binding contract has not been independently verified.
Current status and milestones: As of February 2026, the framework and its stated procurement target are acknowledged by officials and press accounts, yet there is no widely accessible binding agreement published by a government or third party confirming the three-year annual minimum 25 MMT purchases.
Source reliability: The claim rests on official Treasury remarks and reputable reporting (AP News,
US outlets). While these sources describe the framework and target, they do not present a complete, publicly verifiable contract, so the status remains best described as in progress pending formal documentation.
Follow-up: Continued monitoring of official Treasury releases and independent verifications will clarify whether the three-year 25 MMT obligation is legally binding and whether concrete purchases align with milestones when they occur.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 08:57 AMin_progress
What the claim states: The article asserts a new trade framework obligating
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Treasury confirms the framework and the annual 25 MMT commitment as part of an agreement reached by leaders, with China beginning purchases at an initial lower volume. The arrangement is described as a three-year pledge, not a finalized shipment schedule.
Progress and evidence: Public disclosures indicate an agreement was reached in late 2025, with officials presenting the 25 MMT annual figure for three years. AP coverage notes an initial phase of 12 MMT to be purchased by January 2026, followed by the 25 MMT annual level for the next two years, signaling the plan is in place (AP News, 2025).
Current status and milestones: There is no verified three-year tally by February 2026; the framework is in effect and being implemented, but year-by-year totals require ongoing confirmation. Market commentary through early 2026 aligns with the framework, yet independent verification of annual purchases remains limited in the cited materials (AP News, 2025; Treasury press release, 2026).
Dates and reliability: The Treasury release (Jan 8, 2026) and AP reporting (Oct–Dec 2025) are high-quality sources confirming the existence of the framework and its three-year horizon, including an initial 12 MMT tranche. They provide a solid baseline but do not, on their own, confirm complete fulfillment of the annual 25 MMT target for each year to date.
Incentives and interpretation: Coverage emphasizes trade leverage and agricultural policy aims, with incentives for U.S. farmers and signaling from U.S. officials. Given political framing, readers should monitor official confirmations or third-party data to assess progress toward the 25 MMT benchmark over the three-year period.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 04:44 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of a framework and a 25 million metric ton commitment appears in multiple outlets and official briefings from late 2025, with diverse phrasing about initial delivery and ongoing annual purchases. The Treasury release in January 2026 also references a framework linking China to 25 million metric tons per year for three years, reinforcing the stated commitment (Treasury remarks, 2026-01-08).
Progress evidence: Public reporting in late 2025 indicates an agreement or framework directing sizable soybean purchases by China, with sources noting 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025 and 25 million metric tons annually for the following years (AP News, 2025-10-30; AgWeb, 2025-11-03; CNBC, 2025-12-09). Market commentary and policy briefings contemporaneously framed the 25 million-ton figure as the ongoing target for 2026–2028.
Status of completion: As of 2026-02-10, there is no public confirmation that China has completed three full years of purchases at or above 25 million metric tons per year. Given the three-year horizon cited in the framework and the partial year reporting in late 2025, the commitment appears to be in progress rather than completed.
Dates and milestones: Reported milestones include an initial phase of purchases in 2025 (roughly 12 million metric tons) and a commitment to 25 million metric tons annually for 2026–2028, as echoed by White House/press briefings and subsequent Treasury remarks (AP News 2025-10-30; CNBC 2025-12-09; AgWeb 2025-11-03; Treasury 2026-01-08). The projected completion would be three consecutive years starting in 2026, concluding in 2028, contingent on actual purchases and verification by authorities.
Source reliability and incentives: Coverage relies on mainstream outlets with policy briefs and official Treasury remarks. Given the incentives in political framing around trade deals and agricultural markets, it remains prudent to corroborate with official purchase data from Treasury, Customs, or U.S. agricultural agencies as the weeks progress. The Treasury page cited here reinforces the framing but does not by itself verify year-by-year implementation beyond the general commitment.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 02:47 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: A new trade framework allegedly commits
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The Treasury press release and related remarks frame the 25 MMT figure as part of a continuing agreement. The core promise is that China will purchase no less than 25 million metric tons per year for three consecutive years beginning with the agreement period.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates China resumed some soybean purchases after late-2025 talks, with multiple outlets noting an initial 12 MMT in late 2025 and discussions of annual 25 MMT commitments through 2028. NBC News/CNBC-style analyses in December 2025 suggested actual purchases fell short of the 25 MMT target through that month, but signs of ongoing purchases persisted. A January 2026 Treasury remarks reference the framework and reiterate the 25 MMT promise as a continued objective of the agreement.
Evidence on completion vs. in_progress: As of February 2026, there is no verifiable, independently confirmed completion of three consecutive years at or above 25 MMT per year. Public sources describe progress and ongoing purchases, but credible, independently verifiable data showing full-year 2026, 2027, and 2028 fulfillment at or above 25 MMT each year are not readily available in the cited materials. The available reporting points to an in-progress status rather than a completed milestone.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones cited include the late-2025 initial purchases (around 12 MMT) and 2028-era framing of a 25 MMT annual target in various outlets. The Treasury page dated January 8, 2026, quotes the framework in a speech, but does not provide a concrete, independently verifiable annual tally for each of the three years. The most concrete public signals remain contingent on future quarterly/annual U.S. Department of Agriculture data releases.
Source reliability note: Coverage from AP News, CNBC/NBC analyses, and government materials (U.S. Treasury) is used here. While Treasury communications formally articulate the framework, independent confirmation of 25 MMT-per-year fulfillment over three full years remains limited as of the current date. Given the incentives in political/economic messaging, cross-checking with USDA soy imports data and official trade statistics is essential for a definitive status update.
Update · Feb 11, 2026, 01:55 AMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. Public reports in late 2025 describe an agreement in which China commits to 25 million metric tons per year for the following three years, beginning with an initial 12 million metric tons by early 2026 and then 25 million annually (through 2028).
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 11:23 PMin_progress
What the claim states: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Reports in late 2025 describe an agreement or framework with a 25 million metric ton annual purchase target, cited by Treasury Secretary statements and media coverage.
What happened since then: The Treasury remarks from January 8, 2026 frame the 25 million-ton figure as part of a negotiating framework; multiple outlets continued to reference the commitment. There is no publicly available codified treaty text affirming a binding annual purchase obligation as of February 2026.
Milestones and dates: The 25 million-ton target emerged in late 2025, with the first three-year period beginning within the framework. Early-year coverage notes initial purchases and expected volumes, but independent, official milestone data have not been published in a standardized docket.
Source reliability and caveats: The core claims rely on Treasury remarks and mainstream outlets (AP, CNBC, FarmDoc Daily). While reputable, the absence of a formal treaty text means the obligation is better understood as a stated commitment within a framework rather than a legally binding requirement at this time.
Follow-up: Monitor official Treasury releases and independent trade data for any codified text, formal buy commitments, or milestone shipment figures as the three-year window progresses.
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 09:25 PMin_progress
Claim restated: a new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence of progress: late-2025 reports indicate China agreed to 25 MMT annually, with 12 MMT to be shipped in the final months of 2025 and ongoing purchases into 2026. Current status: as of early 2026, the arrangement is being implemented, with annual targets set but contingent on execution and market conditions; no definitive completion by 2028 has been publicly verified. Reliability note: reports come from AP, CNBC, and Treasury statements; details depend on ongoing USDA export data and potential reporting lags. Overall assessment: the target remains in_progress rather than complete, pending verifiable yearly compliance and updated data.
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 07:25 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The claim asserts that under a new trade framework
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The Treasury remarks describing the framework appear in a January 2026 speech, and reporting from outlets has attributed a 25 million metric ton annual pledge to China. AP summarized the commitment as China agreeing to buy 25 million metric tons annually over three years. AP News attribution: 25 million metric tons annually for three years (AP, 2025–2026).
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 04:40 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence publicly available confirms that the 2025- era agreement envisioned a three-year commitment of 25 MMT per year, with an initial tranche of 12 MMT to be purchased by the end of 2025 and ongoing annual purchases thereafter. AP reporting corroborates a three-year duration and the 25 MMT annual target, with the first 12 MMT to be bought between now and January 2026.
Progress indicators: The Treasury and White House communications framed the arrangement as in effect for three years starting around late 2025/early 2026, with public confirmation that China would begin purchases immediately, starting with 12 MMT by the end of 2025 and reaching the 25 MMT annual level in subsequent years (through 2028). Treasury remarks (Jan 8, 2026) and AP coverage (late Jan–Feb 2026) reflect adherence to the framework and ongoing implementation.
Completion status: The three-year purchase commitment remains ongoing as of 2026-02-10, with the initial 12 MMT tranche already referenced as completed or underway and the 25 MMT-per-year target slated for each of the following two years. There is no public evidence yet of formal termination or cancellation, but the status depends on continued adherence by both parties.
Dates and milestones: The claim’s framing ties to a three-year window beginning in 2025/2026, with 12 MMT purchases by the end of 2025 and 25 MMT annually for 2026–2028. AP coverage documents the 25 MMT annual commitment and the start of the three-year period, while the Treasury speech (Jan 8, 2026) anchors the official framing of the agreement’s duration.
Source reliability note: Primary sourcing includes a U.S. Treasury press presence (official government channel), and AP reporting (a widely trusted wire service). Taken together, these sources present a consistent, non-partisan view of an officially stated three-year commitment with begun implementation, though elapsed time and ongoing compliance should continue to be monitored.
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 02:41 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress or milestones: The cited source is a Treasury page hosting remarks dated January 8, 2026, which states the 25 million metric tons figure but provides no accompanying formal agreement, milestones, or enforceable instrument beyond the speech excerpt.
Status assessment: There is no independent corroboration from reputable outlets or official documents confirming a binding framework or three-year purchase obligation. Public records do not establish completion or even formalization of such an agreement.
Reliability considerations: The Treasury speech lacks corroborating sources and may reflect messaging rather than a verifiable treaty or contract. Absent additional documentation from credible, nonpartisan outlets, the claim remains unverified.
Conclusion: Based on current public information, the claim is unverified and appears to be in_progress pending corroboration or a formal agreement with enforceable terms.
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 01:00 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article claimed that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The Treasury speech and subsequent reporting describe an agreement in which China would buy 25 million tons per year for three years, beginning with a 12 million-ton purchase in the current season and then 25 million tons annually thereafter. The core promise is a fixed, multi-year annual purchase target by China of 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting confirms an initial purchase schedule laid out by Treasury officials and corroborated by major outlets in late 2025. Reuters reported that China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons in the current season (through January 2026) and 25 million tons annually for the following three years as part of a broader trade agreement (Oct 30, 2025). AP News likewise covered the 25 million-ton annual commitment. These items indicate progress in designing and communicating the framework, with concrete early purchases amounting to 12 million tons and the long-term commitment in place.
Status of completion: As of February 10, 2026, there is no definitive evidence that China has already completed three consecutive years of 25 million metric tons each. Public accounts through December 2025 and early 2026 show an initial year with 12 million tons purchased and a stated commitment to 25 million tons annually for the subsequent years, but wholesale fulfillment across three full years remains underway or contingent on ongoing implementation and market conditions. Multiple outlets emphasize the commitment, but actual multi-year purchases at the 25 Mt level have not been independently verified as completed.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones include the October 30, 2025 claim of China agreeing to 12 Mt for the current season and 25 Mt annually for the next three years (per Reuters/AP coverage). The Treasury speech date (January 8, 2026) and subsequent media reporting through February 2026 provide the stated framework and ongoing implementation status. No public source shows three full years of 25 Mt completed as of the current date.
Source reliability and incentives: Coverage from Reuters, AP News, and other major outlets is consistent on the framework and initial purchases, lending credibility to the existence of the agreement. The sources also reflect potential incentive dynamics: sustaining large agricultural sales supports U.S. farmers, while political signaling drives leverage in U.S.-China trade. Given the policy and political stakes, continued monitoring of official updates and trade data is warranted to confirm fulfillment milestones.
Conclusion: The claim remains plausible and partially fulfilled—an agreement and initial purchases exist, with a commitment to 25 Mt annually for three years, but three consecutive years at or above 25 Mt have not yet been independently verified as completed by February 2026.
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 11:29 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China will buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years (2026–2028).
Evidence of progress exists in public statements and policy materials from late 2025. Reports quote Treasury and White House briefings indicating China agreed to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually as part of a broader agreement, with accompanying figures showing an initial 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025 and the 25 MMT annual commitment through 2028 (per White House fact sheets and coverage by AP and other outlets).
As of early 2026, there is public documentation of the commitment but limited independently verified shipment data for 2026. News outlets and the Treasury release frame the 25 MMT figure as a standing annual commitment rather than a one-time purchase, but concrete year-by-year shipment totals for 2026 have not been publicly confirmed in the sources available to this analysis.
Milestones and dates of note include: (1) October 2025 statements that China would purchase 25 MMT annually; (2) White House fact sheets and subsequent reporting aligning on the 25 MMMT annual target through 2028; (3) January 8, 2026 Treasury remarks reiterating the framework and commitment. The available sources describe progress toward a multi-year framework, but do not show a finalized, verifiable fulfillment for 2026 yet.
Reliability note: The claim stemmed from official Treasury remarks and White House briefings, corroborated by AP reporting and financial press. While the framing is consistent across multiple reputable outlets, independent verification of 2026 purchases (actual volumes, timing, and enforcement) remains incomplete in public records to date. Overall, the claim rests on an announced commitment rather than a complete, independently confirmed execution picture at this time.
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 09:05 AMin_progress
What the claim states: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. Progress evidence: Public sources indicate discussions and framing around a 25 MMT annual purchase, including AP reporting (Oct 2025) and a Treasury remarks page (Jan 8, 2026) that reiterates the framed commitment, but there is no publicly available formal, binding contract with explicit annual milestones. Completion status: No verifiable, legally binding agreement or confirmed year-by-year procurement totals have been publicly released; the claim remains a negotiated target rather than a completed contract. Dates and milestones: Public mentions cluster around late-2025 to early-2026, but there is no published start date or milestone schedule in primary documents. Source reliability and incentives: The cited materials come from reputable outlets (AP, U.S. Treasury), but they reflect political messaging and negotiating framing rather than a legally binding commitment; caution is warranted in interpreting the 25 MMT figure as completed. Follow-up: If a formal bilateral agreement or binding procurement framework appears, it should be verified against official diplomatic texts and subsequent shipment data.
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 04:48 AMin_progress
What the claim states: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The Treasury release itself frames this as part of a framework and asserts the commitment, but it does not bind the purchase to a formal, legally enshrined contract with explicit enforcement language.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting in late 2025 describes China resuming purchases of U.S. soybeans, with some accounts citing a pledge of 12 million metric tons for 2025 and a commitment to 25 million metric tons annually for the following three years (through 2028). A January 2026 Treasury remarks reiterate that China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons annually for the next three years, aligning with the ongoing narrative of the deal’s framework.
Current status and milestones: The available coverage indicates a phased commitment rather than an immediate, fully binding three-year purchase schedule starting in 2025. By early 2026, multiple outlets echoed the 25 million metric tons per year figure; however, there is no widely corroborated, independent verification of a legally binding purchase schedule or annual volumes executed for 2026 and beyond. The evidence points to a continuing framework with declared targets rather than a fully completed, enforceable delivery record.
Reliability and context: Key references include the U.S. Treasury press material (SB0353 and related remarks) and contemporaneous Reuters/AP coverage citing White House fact sheets and market analyses. The claims come from official/near-official sources and market analyses, but reporting on the exact enforcement and execution of annual volumes remains limited and somewhat inconsistent across outlets. Given incentives in political portrayals and farm-state messaging, independent verification remains essential for confirming concrete deliveries year by year.
Follow-up note: If progress tracking is desired, a follow-up should review actual soybean purchase data for 2026, 2027, and 2028 from U.S. Department of Agriculture export data and trade finance disclosures, plus any multilateral or bilateral implementation documents released by Treasury or the White House. A target reassessment date: 2028-01-01.
Update · Feb 10, 2026, 04:09 AMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates China committed to purchasing 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans each year as part of an agreement reached by
Chinese and U.S. leaders in late 2025, with an initial 12 million metric tons to be bought between now and January 2026. This framing appears in AP coverage of Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks and accompanying Treasury materials.
Status of completion: As of February 2026, there is no verified documentation showing the three-year commitment has completed or run its full course. The arrangement, if it remains in force, would span three consecutive years starting from the initial purchases noted in late 2025. Independent reporting treats the deal as ongoing rather than finished.
Dates and milestones: Key milestone cited is the start of purchases: 12 MMT to be purchased by January 2026, followed by 25 MMT annually for the next two years (2026–2028) per the reporting. The Treasury speech (January 8, 2026) also echoes the framework language, though exact, formal text from a binding agreement is not independently corroborated in a government treaty database.
Reliability note: The primary corroboration comes from the Associated Press reporting of Secretary Bessent’s statements and the Treasury press context. The AP piece explicitly situates the claim in late-2025 negotiations and describes it as a three-year commitment. While credible, any formal binding framework would benefit from official treaty or binding agreement language beyond press statements to confirm obligation and enforceability.
Follow-up context: Given the claim’s high-stakes incentives (agriculture, trade balance, and political signaling), monitoring official procurement reports and any later Treasury or White House attestations will be essential to confirm continued compliance through 2026–2028.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 10:51 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The Treasury speech embedded in the article cites a framework with a 25 million metric tons per year buy, a point echoed by several outlets.
What progress exists: Reports indicate China began resuming soybean purchases under the agreement in late 2025, with initial shipments around 12 million metric tons by December 2025 and a target of 25 MMT annually in 2026–2028. Coverage from CNBC and AP-type outlets describes a restart and a commitment structure toward 25 MMT annually.
Current status: By February 2026, multiple reputable sources describe the 25 MMT annual target through 2028, with 2026 as the active year in the first year of the three-year window. There is no public notice of reversal or cancellation in early 2026, though details depend on ongoing implementation.
Completion assessment: The stated completion condition—three consecutive years of at least 25 MMT—extends through 2027–2028. As of early 2026, the three-year window has not yet ended, so the claim is not complete but progressing under the agreed framework.
Reliability and incentives: The claim derives from a Treasury official and subsequent media reporting; corroboration exists but precise terms and enforceability may vary by source and date. The underlying incentives include restoring U.S. agricultural exports and signaling robust trade relations with China.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 08:58 PMin_progress
What the claim stated: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The Treasury press material itself echoed this commitment in remarks tied to the framework (SB0353/January 8, 2026) and described China agreeing to an annual minimum of 25 million tons for three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting confirms China resumed U.S. soybean purchases after late-October talks, with initial pledges reflecting 12 million metric tons to be bought by the end of February 2026. Reuters reported that by January 20, 2026 China had bought about 12 million metric tons, meeting a short-term target and signaling ongoing execution of the broader 25 million-ton commitment.
Evidence about completion status: As of February 2026, the 25 million tons per year target for 2026–2028 had not yet been demonstrated as fulfilled; the 12 million-ton milestone was reported as a partial step toward the annual 25 million-ton pledge. The White House framing indicated the three-year framework, but publicly verifiable year-by-year purchases beyond the initial 12 million were not yet confirmed.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones include the late-October 2025 agreement, the 12 million-ton purchases by January 2026, and the ongoing commitment for 25 million metric tons annually for three years starting in 2026, per multiple outlets (AP, Reuters). The Treasury framing (SB0353) anchors the promise in early January 2026.
Reliability and limitations of sources: The Treasury page provides the formal claim reference in its remarks. AP coverage confirms the 12 million-ton short-term target and the three-year 25 million-ton pledge. Reuters corroborates the 12 million-ton achievement and notes the ongoing 25 million-ton annual framework. Taken together, these sources establish a credible, albeit evolving, status with a clear progress milestone reached and a continuing fulfillment window for 2026–2028.
Follow-up note on incentives: The deal sits at the intersection of U.S. agricultural interests and China’s trade posture. Ongoing enforcement and real purchases will determine the incentive shifts for farmers and processors, especially if annual volumes converge toward the pledged 25 million tons each year.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 07:15 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting describes a late-2025 framework with a stated China purchase target of 25 million metric tons annually for the coming years; outlets such as AP and CNBC summarized the commitment and milestones tied to the deal. The Treasury release SB0353 (Jan 8, 2026) frames the arrangement as a framework and notes intended multi-year purchases.
Current status and milestones: By February 2026 there is no independently verified fulfillment of the full 25 MMT annual commitment for 2026–2028. Reports indicate the deal exists and includes annual targets, but actual purchase totals for the current year have not been confirmed as completed across sources.
Reliability and incentives: Reputable outlets report on the announced terms and the administration’s framing; independent verification of ongoing annual purchases remains limited. The framing emphasizes restoring U.S. agricultural access and broader trade objectives amid policy shifts, with durability depending on sustained
Chinese procurement.
Notes on completion: The completion condition—China purchasing no less than 25 MMT for three consecutive years—has not been independently confirmed as completed as of early 2026; the status is best described as in_progress.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 04:37 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: Reuters reported on Jan 20, 2026 that China had already purchased about 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, fulfilling a near-term target by the end of February and signaling continued purchases under the broader framework. The Treasury press release SB0353 (Jan 8, 2026) explicitly described an obligation for China to buy at least 25 million metric tons annually for three years, aligning with the stated framework.
Current status: As of Feb 9, 2026, only the initial 12 million-ton target had been publicly confirmed as met; the 25 million metric tons per year for 2026–2028 had not been independently verified as fully completed, but remains the stated commitment in official communications. The Reuters report indicates that the 12 million-ton milestone was reached early in the period, with further purchases expected to fulfill the annual 25 million-ton level in the following years, subject to market conditions and implementation details.
Dates and milestones: The trade framework was publicized by Treasury communications in early January 2026, with China’s 12 million-ton shipment target reported by Reuters to be met by January 2026; the three-year 25 MMT annual commitment is to run through 2028. The completion condition would be satisfied if China buys at least 25 MMT in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 02:34 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting from late 2025 described an agreement whereby China would buy 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028, effectively creating a three-year commitment beginning in 2026 (AP News; AGWeb; FarmDoc Daily).
News coverage in October–November 2025 indicated that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced China’s commitment to 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with an initial 12 million metric tons to be purchased by January 2026 (AP News; Yahoo Finance summary of AP report). This establishes a framework and milestones but does not independently confirm full execution of annual purchases for 2026, 2027, and 2028 beyond the publicized initial tranche.
As of February 2026, there is limited publicly verifiable evidence confirming that China has completed or continuously maintained the full 25 MMT annual purchases for the entire three-year period. The Treasury’s January 2026 remarks reiterate the framework, but do not provide a year-by-year verification of 2026–2028 purchases. Independent trade data and official import tallies extending into 2026–2027 have not yet been reliably corroborated in widely recognized outlets.
Key milestones reported include: (1) an agreement announced by late October 2025 with a 12 MMT initial buy by early 2026; (2) a stated commitment to 25 MMT annually through 2028; and (3) public framing of the deal in U.S. Treasury materials and major press outlets. These milestones indicate a negotiated framework rather than a fully documented fulfillment at this point.
Source reliability varies: AP News and other major outlets reported contemporaneously on the milestone event; policy details originated from Treasury statements and White House fact sheets. While these sources are credible, independent, verifiable trade data for the full three-year horizon remains essential to confirm ongoing fulfillment. Given the absence of corroborating import data for the full three-year horizon, the status is best characterized as in_progress rather than complete or failed.
Follow-up on this story should review international trade statistics for U.S. soybean exports to China for 2026, 2027, and 2028, along with any official White House or Treasury updates confirming year-by-year purchases under the agreed framework (e.g., annual import tallies, official press releases).
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 01:01 PMin_progress
Restatement of the claim: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years starting in 2026. Evidence of progress: By January 2026, public reporting indicated China had resumed U.S. soybean purchases, with about 12 million metric tons bought toward the yearly target and officials describing a pledge for 25 million tons annually over the next three years. Status of completion: The three-year, 25 million-ton annual target had not yet been completed as of February 2026; shipments and annual fulfillment are unfolding across 2026–2028. Key dates: late-October 2025 truce spurred purchases; January 2026 reports citing a 12 million-ton tally and an affirmed 25 million-ton-per-year commitment beginning in 2026; completion would be assessed after 2028. Source reliability: Reuters and AP provide independent corroboration of the 25 million-ton pledge and the early shipment progress; the Treasury page in the provided metadata aligns with the claim but lacks standalone corroboration and reflects a political framing. Follow-up will require monitoring 2026–2028 shipments to confirm annual fulfillment through 2028.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 11:15 AMin_progress
Restated claim: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The claim asserts three consecutive years of at least 25 million metric tons each year.
Progress evidence: I find no independent, official confirmation from credible policy or trade authorities that such a framework exists or has been implemented. The only near-quote appears in a Treasury-hosted transcript of a January 2026 speech, which does not constitute a formal agreement or binding framework with China.
Completion status: There is no verifiable milestone or completion date showing China has committed to or is already delivering 25 million metric tons annually. No corroborating public records, trade data releases, or official bilateral statements reflect this three-year commitment.
Source reliability: The Treasury page contains partisan political framing and a speech excerpt rather than a formal policy notification. Absent corroboration from independent, high-quality outlets or official bilateral documents, the claim remains unverified and uncertain. Given the lack of corroboration and the absence of a formal instrument, the status should be treated as unconfirmed and not completed.
Notes on incentives: If such a framework existed, it would hinge on bilateral negotiations and enforcement mechanisms that are not visible in credible public records. Without transparent, independent verification, claims centered on large agricultural purchase commitments should be viewed with skepticism pending official documentation.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 08:45 AMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China will buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Public reporting in late 2025 attributed to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated a 25 million metric ton annual commitment for three years, following a 12 million ton initial tranche. As of February 2026, three full years of purchases have not elapsed, so the status is not complete.
Progress evidence: News outlets reported that China agreed to purchase 25 million tons annually for three years, with an initial 12 million tons by the end of 2025 and annual purchases continuing through 2028 if the terms hold. This provides concrete milestones: first-year purchases around 12 million tons by January 2026, then 25 million tons per year in the subsequent years.
Completion status: The deal’s framework suggests a three-year commitment, but definitive year-end totals for 2026 and 2027 are not publicly verified in the sources consulted. The claim remains in_progress pending full year-by-year verification of supply and shipments.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones cited include 12 million tons by January 2026 and 25 million tons annually in 2026–2028. Public coverage from AP, CNBC, and FarmDoc Daily frames these milestones as conditional on the agreement’s continuation and implementation.
Source reliability note: The most reliable confirmations come from established outlets (AP, CNBC, FarmDoc Daily) reporting the deal terms. A Treasury page cited in the prompt appears inconsistent with standard Treasury communications; cross-checking with primary sources is advised for definitive confirmation.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 04:14 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Public discussion around a 25 MMT annual commitment circulated in late 2025, but there is no clearly verifiable, official government document confirming such a binding framework.
Reporting from AP News attributed the figure to statements by officials, yet those initial briefings did not produce a contemporaneous Treasury press release or other primary source clearly outlining enforceable terms. Several policy analyses summarized a 12 MMT in 2025 and 25 MMT annually in following years, but relied on secondary interpretations rather than primary disclosures.
As of 2026-02-08, no widely corroborated primary source confirms a legal obligation for China to buy 25 MMT each year through 2028. Market implications and headlines persist, but concrete milestones, timelines, or completion criteria remain unverified in government records.
Source mix shows some reputable outlets (AP), but the Treasury page cited in the claim appeared inconsistent with standard government communications. Given the lack of unambiguous official documentation, the status should be characterized as unconfirmed or disputed rather than completed.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 02:08 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: Public disclosures cite a framework or agreement in which China commits to 25 MMT annually, with an initial tranche (e.g., 12 MMT) to be purchased in the near term as part of the same package. AP News and other outlets summarize Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks confirming the 25 MMT annual target for three years, with early purchases referenced. Additional reporting (CNBC, AgWeb) aligns on the annual target and notes initial purchase volumes described in the timeline. Completion status: No independent, contemporaneous verification confirms 25 MMT has been purchased in each year of 2026 and 2027; fulfillment appears contingent on ongoing implementation and reporting. Dates and milestones: Public framing occurred in late 2025 into 2026, with initial purchases slated for late 2025/early 2026 and an ensuing three-year horizon. Sources reliability: Major outlets and AP provide credible framing of the commitment, though real-time verification of annual buy volumes remains limited.
Update · Feb 09, 2026, 12:26 AMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Late-2025 reporting quotes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with mentions of an initial 12 million-ton tranche. In January 2026, Treasury remarks reiterate the framework and the 25 MMT figure as the ongoing framework’s outcome (AP, CNBC summaries, and Treasury.gov remarks).
Current status: There is no widely corroborated public record showing full 25 MMT purchases for 2026 and 2027 or formal completion of the three-year commitment as of February 2026; independent verification and annual purchase data are not clearly published.
Milestones/dates: Key anchors are the October 30, 2025 reports of the 25 MMT annual commitment (with a starting tranche) and the January 8, 2026 Treasury remarks; no definitive post-2025 data confirm year-by-year fulfillment.
Reliability note: Treasury statements anchor the claim, but independent confirmation from trade data or follow-up official disclosures appears limited as of early 2026; coverage from AP and market outlets provides context but should be interpreted cautiously until publication of verifiable purchase totals.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 10:27 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting in late 2025 and early 2026 describes the 25 MMT figure as part of a bilateral agreement, with officials and outlets citing commitments for 25 MMT annually for a three-year window, beginning around 2025–2026. There is no independently verified shipment-by-shipment data or government-confirmed year-by-year totals for the full three-year period, so completion cannot be confirmed yet. The available sources frame the commitment as ongoing or planned purchases rather than a completed three-year procurement milestone. The reliability of the reporting is reasonable, derived from Treasury remarks and reputable outlets, but lacks auditable verification of the promised totals. As of 2026-02-08, the status remains in_progress pending transparent, verifiable procurement data.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 08:12 PMin_progress
Claim restated: A Treasury press release quotes a new trade framework under which
China would buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. The assertion appears within a speech included on the U.S. Treasury site, attributed to a presidential address rather than a binding treaty or contract.
Evidence of progress: Public documentation frames the 25 million metric tons figure as part of political messaging rather than a binding agreement. There is no official contract, government procurement record, or independent corroboration confirming a three-year, legally enforceable purchase obligation.
Current status and milestones: As of 2026-02-08, there is no widely reported, enforceable framework or milestones confirming the commitment beyond the speaker’s remarks. If a binding agreement exists, it has not been publicly disclosed in standard government or independent trade records.
Source reliability and notes: The claim relies on a speech excerpt hosted on the Treasury website, which may reflect political messaging rather than a verifiable policy instrument. Readers should treat it as a contingent assertion tied to the speaker’s rhetoric, not as established policy or a completed milestone.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 06:42 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public statements tied to the framework indicate a three-year commitment of 25 million metric tons per year, beginning with an initial tranche and continuing through 2028. AP coverage confirms the framework includes a three-year purchase obligation of 25 million metric tons annually, with initial purchases starting in late 2025.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 04:14 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: A new trade framework purportedly obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the following three years. The Treasury press materials and accompanying remarks echo this promise, framing it as a framework achievement and a concrete annual purchase target. While the source materials repeat the figure, they do not independently verify ongoing or completed acquisitions beyond the stated commitments.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting around late 2025 indicates initial
Chinese purchases near 12 million metric tons through January 2026, with an intent to reach 25 million metric tons annually for the subsequent three years. Coverage from AP and related agricultural-focused outlets notes that the 25 million figure reflects prior levels before the trade frictions, and that the deal includes removal of some retaliatory tariffs and resumed sorghum purchases. This suggests movement toward the target, but not full execution of the three-year annual minimum as of early 2026.
Evidence of completion, progress, or failure: As of 2026-02-08, there is no independently confirmed certification that China has consistently purchased at least 25 million metric tons every year for 2025–2027. Public reporting points to an initial tranche (roughly 12 million metric tons by early 2026) and to a promise of continued annual purchases, but does not show three consecutive completed years meeting the stated threshold.
Dates and milestones: The claim references a three-year period beginning with an agreed framework in 2025, with annual purchases reaching 25 million metric tons per year across 2025–2027. The AP coverage notes an initial 12 million metric tons through January 2026 and reiterates the target for subsequent years, but concrete year-by-year fulfillment data beyond early 2026 is not established in the available public records.
Source reliability and incentives: The Treasury press-release page reproduces the claim as part of remarks, but independent verification relies on AP reporting and agricultural policy analyses. AP is a reputable source for verification of agricultural commitments and market impacts, while the Treasury remarks reflect the policy framing of the administration at the time. Given the political incentives surrounding U.S.-China trade narratives, a cautious approach requires awaiting verifiable purchase tallies for each year to confirm completion status.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 02:20 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim and current status: The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting through early February 2026 references this figure in a Treasury speech, but there is no publicly verifiable, binding official agreement confirmed by both governments. The Treasury source ties the figure to a framework, but independent verification or formal instruments are not evident.
Evidence of progress or development: The Treasury address repeats the 25 Mt figure as part of a broader narrative, yet there is a lack of corroboration from the
Chinese government or other credible sources confirming a binding framework or milestones. Media coverage in late 2025 cites the commitment based on statements by U.S. officials, not on binding treaty language or enforceable texts.
Completion status assessment: As of 2026-02-08, there is no public, verifiable record of a legally binding agreement obligating China to buy 25 Mt annually for 2026–2028. The claim appears to be based on rhetoric or signal rather than an accomplished, verifiable treaty or contract.
Reliability and caveats: The primary cited material is a Treasury speech, which is a political/official quote rather than a binding instrument. Reports from AP and others discuss related statements, but none establish a formal, verifiable framework with milestones. The assessment favors treating the claim as in_progress pending formal confirmation or documentation.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 12:32 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public sources indicate a commitment to those purchase levels rather than a confirmed completion of deliveries. The White House fact sheet from November 2025 set the expectation of 25 MMT annually in 2026–2028, with a 12 MMT tranche in late 2025. Treasury remarks in January 2026 reference the framework and tied commitments but do not verify full execution of annual purchases for each year.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 11:12 AMin_progress
What the claim stated: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: reports in late 2025 indicated China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually as part of a broader U.S.–China trade agreement, with about 12 million tons purchased in the remainder of 2025 and commitments for at least 25 million tons per year through 2028. The public framing from Treasury/White House communications and subsequent media coverage described the arrangement as binding over a multi‑year window. Reliability note: coverage comes from reputable outlets (AP News, CNBC, AgWeb, FarmdocDaily) that cited official briefings, though a formal treaty text was not publicly located in standard repositories.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 09:02 AMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Progress evidence: Reports indicate a framework announced in late 2025 with China agreeing to buy 12 million metric tons by end-2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. The January 2026 Reuters report confirms about 12 million tons had been purchased and that higher volumes toward the 25 MMT annual target were continuing. Completion status: The three-year consecutive-purchase requirement has not yet completed, as the window runs 2026–2028 and the end-of-window milestone will be confirmed only after those years. Reliability: Reuters’ coverage provides concrete near-term purchase figures and the White House briefings outline the 25 MMT annual target through 2028; treasury remarks corroborate the broader framework, though some outlets summarize the commitment differently. Sources and context from Reuters (Jan 2026), AP (Oct 2025), and White House briefings underpin the assessment.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 04:16 AMin_progress
Brief restatement of the claim: A new trade framework allegedly binds
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years starting after the agreement. Public reporting indicates the figure was presented as part of a broader U.S.-China deal announced in late 2025. AP coverage and other outlets attribute the 25 MMT commitment to statements by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House disclosures tied to the agreement (AP, 2025).
Evidence of progress: Reports describe China resuming soybean purchases in late 2025, including a plan to reach at least 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025 and 25 million metric tons annually through 2028, per White House materials associated with the deal (AP, CNBC, 2025). U.S. sources framed the 25 MMT figure as part of the three-year framework, with ongoing procurement activity thereafter (CNBC, 2025).
Current status and completion: As of early 2026, the framework appears to be in the implementation phase rather than completed. Publicly available materials show a three-year commitment and ongoing purchases, but there is no widely recognized, legally binding treaty published by both governments confirming full, automatic annual purchases of 25 MMT each year for the three-year window (AP, 2025; CNBC, 2025).
Dates and milestones: Key milestones cited include China resuming imports in October 2025, a target of 12 MMT by the end of 2025, and the broader 25 MMT annual target through 2028 as part of the deal structure reported in late 2025 (AP, 2025; CNBC, 2025). The Treasury remarks on January 8, 2026 frame the arrangement as a framework with a three-year horizon, but do not specify additional legally binding milestones beyond those publicly stated targets (Treasury remarks, 2026).
Source reliability and neutral interpretation: Reported details come from a mix of high-profile outlets (AP, CNBC) and official Treasury remarks, which are generally considered reliable for policy announcements. Given the nature of political framing and the evolving status of trade agreements, cautious language is warranted: the 25 MMT commitment is portrayed as part of a framework with progress reported to date, but without confirmation of a formal, enforceable obligation across the entire three-year period (AP, 2025; CNBC, 2025; Treasury, 2026).
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 02:12 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Treasury remarks in January 2026 repeat the commitment as part of a broader trade framework, aligning with coverage that linked the figure to a late-2025 deal. However, independent reporting indicates that China’s 2025 soybean purchases shifted away from
the United States and toward
South America due to tariffs, with a rebound only later in late 2025 and into 2026, casting doubt on a firm, legally binding three-year obligation for 2026–2028. The exact legal status and enforceability of the pledge remain unclear, and progress appears contingent on ongoing negotiations and market conditions.
Update · Feb 08, 2026, 12:23 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public statements tie the commitment to an agreement reached by leaders in October 2025, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announcing the 25 million metric tons figure as part of that deal. Treasury communications in January 2026 reiterated the framework and the annual quantity target, cementing the stated obligation in official U.S. government materials.
Evidence of progress shows China resumed soybean purchases in late 2025 after the agreement, including reports that China would buy at least 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025 and then at least 25 million metric tons annually in the following years. Independent coverage from AP, CNBC, and farm- and policy-focused analysts corroborates the purchasing commitment and the buy-and-restock dynamics described by Treasury officials. While timelines indicate an ongoing program, concrete shipment-by-shipment data for 2026 remain to be fully available in public records.
As of early February 2026, the promise has not yet reached a formal, third-party-verified completion; the three-year annual-25-million-ton target is scheduled to run through 2027, with a projected completion date contingent on the exact start and yearly uptake. Some sources extend the commitment through 2028, depending on the formulation of the deal and subsequent follow-through, but verification remains limited to initial announcements and Treasury remarks. The status therefore remains best characterized as in_progress rather than completed or failed.
Key milestones cited include the October 30, 2025 announcement of the 25 million metric tons per year commitment, the subsequent resumption of purchases, and the January 8, 2026 Treasury remarks that frame the commitment within the administration’s trade agenda. These milestones provide a reasonable basis to track progress, though independent, transparent shipment data and annual totals through 2027 are essential to confirm ongoing compliance. The reliability of sources ranges from official Treasury statements to widely reported coverage from AP and major business outlets.
Given the incentives at play—support for agriculture and trade certainty for U.S. exporters, and China’s strategic diversification of supply chains—the framework is plausibly maintainable if both sides uphold the agreement and market conditions allow continued purchases. However, the available reporting does not prove automatic fulfillment; it indicates an ongoing policy commitment with early indicators of progress but requires more complete data to confirm sustained annual totals over the entire three-year window. Stakeholders should monitor official U.S. and
Chinese trade disclosures for yearly totals and shipment-level details.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 10:27 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting from late 2025 indicates China agreed to 25 million metric tons annually, with an initial shipment of 12 million tons and ongoing annual commitments through 2028, as described by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and reported by AP and trade outlets.
Current status and milestones: As of early 2026, there is no widely corroborated evidence of termination or reversal; the three-year commitment appears to be in effect or ongoing, with the timeline extending through 2028. Specific 2026 milestones and enforceability remain lightly documented beyond Treasury remarks and industry analyses.
Source reliability and caveats: The main references come from credible outlets (AP, AgWeb, FarmDocDaily, DTN) and the Treasury press context. However, the claim originates from political messaging rather than a formal treaty text, so verification and updates are prudent as trade volumes flow.
Bottom line: The claim remains in_progress, with evidence pointing to an ongoing three-year commitment through 2028 rather than a completed arrangement or clear cancellation. Obtain year-end 2026 or mid-2027 trade data to confirm continued adherence.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 08:18 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting in late 2025 and January 2026 describes a framework that includes a 25 MMT-per-year target starting in 2026, with initial purchases occurring as part of that agreement. Reports from Reuters, AP, and CNBC corroborate the framing and initial steps of the deal, though actual monthly totals have varied as implementation unfolds.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 06:38 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim and baseline: The claim asserts a binding framework requiring
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. The Treasury remarks page (Jan 8, 2026) repeats the 25 MMT figure as part of a framework, but does not present public bilateral documentation.
Evidence of progress: Reports from late 2025 described China agreeing to 25 MMT annually, with some sources noting phased or year-by-year commitments rather than a simple three-year fixed mandate. Independent analyses highlighted variability in reported figures and timelines before public confirmation.
Current status and milestones: As of 2026-02-07, there is no widely published, verifiable White House fact sheet or formal bilateral treaty tying China to a three-year, 25 MMT per year obligation. The Treasury remarks alone do not establish a publicly verifiable completion milestone.
Reliability and caveats: Official government sourcing confirms the figure but lacks accompanying public, independently verifiable enforcement documentation. Reputable outlets reported in 2025 on related commitments; however, gaps remain between initial announcements and publicly filed bilateral instruments.
Synthesis and incentives: The narrative around a three-year purchase mandate intersects political messaging and agricultural policy goals. The absence of a formal, publicly accessible completion document limits confidence in a guaranteed, year-by-year fulfillment beyond rhetoric within statements.
Follow-up plan: Monitor for a White House fact sheet, bilateral agreement text, or verified milestones from the U.S. Department of the Treasury or U.S. Trade Representative in the coming months to confirm binding status and specific year-by-year purchases.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 04:12 PMfailed
The claim derives from a line in a 2026 Treasury release (SB0353) stating that
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. There is no corroborating evidence of a formal, enforceable trade framework or binding commitments with concrete milestones from official trade agreements or independent reporting. As of 2026-02-07, the claim remains unsubstantiated and not reflected in publicly verifiable trade documents.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 02:17 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Reports in late 2025 described a China–U.S. agreement including a 25 million metric tons per year commitment, with initial purchases of about 12 million tons slated for the current season and continued purchases planned for 2026 onward.
Current status: By early 2026, coverage indicates continued implementation toward the 25 million ton annual target, though exact 2026–2028 purchase totals depend on ongoing shipments and confirmations.
Milestones and dates: Notable markers include the Oct 30, 2025 agreement announcement and subsequent reports through December 2025 and January 2026 outlining the path to 25 million tons annually.
Reliability and incentives: Coverage from AP News, CNBC, Farmdocdaily, and Treasury communications align on the central target, but independent verification of yearly totals requires official export data and future Treasury/White House briefings.
Follow-up note on sources: AP News (2025-10-30), CNBC (2025-12-09), Farmdocdaily (Nov 2025), US News (2025-10-30), Spectrum Local News (2025-10-30), Treasury press release (2026-01-08).
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 12:41 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The Treasury remarks describe a framework and assert the 25 million metric tons annual commitment, but they are presented as part of a speech rather than a formal, codified agreement. There is no widely published, official treaty or binding contract publicly confirming a legally enforceable three-year procurement obligation. Evidence of progress comes from contemporary reporting that China resumed soybean purchases and from statements by Treasury officials linking the 25 MMT figure to an agreed framework, but these are based on statements rather than verifiable, binding commitments.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 11:12 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting in late 2025 indicated an agreement or framework wherein China would buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually, with attribution to actions by U.S. officials and White House communications. Reports reference a 25 MMT annual target through 2028 as part of the discussions.
Current status: As of February 2026, reputable outlets framed the 25 MMT-per-year commitment as part of an ongoing framework rather than a finalized, legally binding contract. Treasury remarks in January 2026 echoed the framework but did not present a formal, closed instrument with a fixed completion date, suggesting the arrangement remains in-progress or evolving.
Dates and milestones: October 30, 2025 is the public point at which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated China agreed to purchase 25 MMT annually. Subsequent coverage describes a continuing framework rather than a completed deal, with implied horizons through 2028 in summaries.
Source reliability and incentives: Reports from AP, CNBC, Farmdoc Daily, and Treasury communications are reputable; however, the public record does not show a finalized binding agreement with explicit remedies or enforcement. Given political and negotiation incentives, independent verification of binding terms remains limited in public materials.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 09:01 AMin_progress
What the claim states: Under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. What the evidence shows about progress: late-2025 reporting indicates China committed to 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually in 2026–2028 as part of the deal; subsequent coverage through early 2026 describes resumed purchases and a path to the 25 MMT/year target. What is known about completion status: the three-year 25 MMT/year commitment appears to be active for 2026–2028, but complete year-by-year execution data for 2026 are still developing and should be monitored as trade data arrive. Reliability of sources: reports from AP, CNBC, and trade-documents summarize the deal terms and observed purchasing activity, though some outlets rely on White House/Deal-term briefings; cross-source corroboration strengthens the assessment.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 05:03 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. The Treasury press release SB0353 (Jan 8, 2026) is the primary reference for the claim, but public reporting and independent sources have not corroborated this specific purchase obligation. As of 2026-02-06, there is no accessible, corroborated public record showing a signed framework or enforceable annual soybean purchase minimum tied to China.
Progress evidence: I did not locate credible, independent sources confirming that such a framework exists, has been signed, or that any milestones (signing, implementation, or annual purchase data) have been publicly reported. A lack of corroborating coverage from major, reputable outlets and government-facing materials raises questions about the claim’s current status. The Treasury page referenced in the claim could not be retrieved for detailed verification in the available feeds.
Completion status: No concrete evidence demonstrates that China is obligated to buy 25 million metric tons each year for three years, nor that any progress or completion milestones have been achieved. Absent official confirmation, the claim remains unverified and speculative, and could reflect a misinterpretation or miscaptioning of a different policy discussion.
Source reliability note: The instruction cites a Treasury press release as the basis, but publicly verifiable details could not be retrieved in this check. When evaluating such claims, it is essential to rely on primary documents (signed framework text) and independent, high-quality reporting. Given the absence of verifiable milestones, caution is warranted in treating the claim as current fact.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 02:59 AMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article stated that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: In late 2025, U.S. officials indicated China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons in the current season and committed to 25 million tons annually for the following three years; Treasury remarks in January 2026 reiterated the annual 25 million-ton commitment. Milestones and current status: The 12 million-ton current-season purchase occurred in 2025–2026, with the three-year 25 million-ton commitment spanning roughly 2026–2029, so the status is still in_progress. Reliability and incentives: Reporting from Reuters, AP, and the Treasury memo provide corroboration of the commitment, though actual purchases depend on bilateral implementation and market conditions.
Update · Feb 07, 2026, 01:05 AMin_progress
What the claim states: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This framing suggests firm annual intake targets that would extend through 2028 if undisrupted. The claim relies on statements from U.S. Treasury officials about a
Chinese commitment tied to high-level negotiations.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting confirms an agreement reached in late 2025 that China would buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans per year for three years, with an initial tranche of 12 million tons to be purchased by January 2026. The AP paraphrase and Treasury remarks corroborate the 3-year duration and the annual target, while the White House/White House-backed analyses have echoed the 12-month-into-2026 start. This establishes a concrete, verifiable framework and near-term milestones.
Current status and milestones: As of early February 2026, the arrangement is framed as active and in the implementation phase. Reports indicate China began with a 12 million-ton purchase window by January 2026, and the three-year commitment remains in effect through 2028, assuming no material policy shifts or disruptors. The completion condition—annual purchases of at least 25 million metric tons for three consecutive years—has not yet been fulfilled, given the ongoing three-year horizon.
Source reliability and caveats: Coverage from AP News and Treasury communications is consistent and cross-checked. While the agreement has clear stated milestones, actual export volumes can be sensitive to weather, market dynamics, or policy shifts; remaining period risk factors should be watched. Overall, public sources treat the claim as active policy with defined targets rather than a completed transaction to date.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 10:52 PMin_progress
Restatement of the claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This framing appears in the Treasury-linked material and related postings that cite a 25 MMT annual commitment through 2028. The White House fact sheet from November 2025 explicitly framed the deal as China agreeing to purchase at least 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans in 2026, 2027, and 2028, alongside other trade actions. In short, the claim rests on an official-framed commitment rather than a purely voluntary market outcome.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 09:07 PMin_progress
What the claim states: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This framing has been reported as part of a deal announced by U.S. officials, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicating China’s commitment to buy about 25 MMT annually for three years and an initial surge of purchases beginning immediately.
Progress and evidence: Public reporting identifies an October 30, 2025 announcement in which Bessent said China would immediately buy more than 400 million bushels and commit to roughly 1 billion bushels per year for three years, equating to about 25 MMT annually. Multiple outlets (AP, DTN, and Treasury communications) cite the 25 MMT figure as the core commitment for 2026–2028, with earlier purchases amounting to about 12 MMT in late 2025 as part of the deal’s phased delivery.
Current status of completion: As of February 6, 2026, the three-year annual purchase target has not yet elapsed; the arrangement is framed as beginning with immediate shipments and continuing through 2026–2028. There is no publicly verified endpoint or formal enforcement milestone indicating the three-year target has been completed; observers describe the situation as a multi-year commitment that is in progress rather than finished.
Milestones and dates: Key milestones include the October 2025 announcement of a 25 MMT annual commitment and an initial tranche of purchases (roughly 12 MMT in late 2025). The January 8, 2026 Treasury press release referencing the framework corroborates the ongoing nature of the agreement, not finalization.
Reliability note: Reports from authoritative sources (AP coverage of the Bessent statement, DTN policy reporting, and the Treasury press release) converge on the core terms (25 MMT annually for three years) and identify the October 2025 announcement as the origin of the commitment. Given the early stage of a multi-year agreement, the sources also indicate progress is underway but not yet complete. The assessment uses the best available public records and frames the status accordingly.
Follow-up: None
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 07:08 PMin_progress
What the claim states: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The claim is anchored to statements from U.S. officials and coverage of a negotiated framework. The key promised metric is 25 million metric tons per year, for three consecutive years starting after the agreement.
Progress evidence: Public reporting indicates China and U.S. officials announced a framework in which China would buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually for three years, with initial purchases to begin promptly (AP reports describe a 12 million ton tranche initially, followed by the 25 MMT annual commitment for the subsequent years). Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in remarks dated Jan 8, 2026, reiterated the 25 MMT annual pledge as part of the framework. These sources establish the declared commitment but do not confirm enforceable performance milestones beyond the stated promises.
Current status of completion: There is no publicly verifiable evidence that China has completed three years of purchases at or above 25 MMT annually by the current date (Feb 6, 2026). The available reporting centers on the announced framework and initial shipments; a three-year completion condition would require sustained annual purchases, which has not been independently confirmed as completed. Absent a follow-up verification showing three consecutive years of 25 MMT, the status remains incomplete or in_progress.
Dates and milestones: The core milestone is the start of the agreement and the three-year commitment to 25 MMT per year. Reported milestones include an initial 12 MMT purchase window and the ensuing annual 25 MMT framework, with the completion date contingent on three successive years of fulfillment. The Treasury press materials (Jan 8, 2026) and AP reporting (late 2025) provide the best-documented milestones to date, but do not show final completion as of early 2026.
Reliability and balance of sources: The claim is supported by an official Treasury remarks page and corroborated by AP News reporting detailing the same framework, lending credibility to the asserted commitment. Coverage from additional outlets (CNBC, AgWeb, FarmDoc Daily) reflects the same policy frame but vary in emphasis on timing and initial shipments. Overall, sources are from reputable outlets, but public evidence of sustained, three-year fulfillment beyond announcements is not yet verifiable.
Incentives note: The framing emphasizes agricultural export benefits for U.S. farmers and broader trade-certainty goals touted by the administration. If policy incentives shift (e.g., changes in leadership or trade tensions), the incentive structure for maintaining multi-year, fixed-volume purchases could change, affecting the likelihood of three consecutive years meeting the 25 MMT target. This context matters for assessing the durability of the pledge.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 04:30 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years starting presumably in 2026. Public reporting since the announcement has framed the commitment as a high-level agreement tied to
Sino-American trade talks, but there is no publicly available, legally binding contract published by a primary government source confirming an obligation has been codified and remains enforceable. Independent analyses and wire reports have described the arrangement as a commitment discussed by leaders, not a fixed treaty text with verifiable annual delivery guarantees.
Evidence of progress includes media reports that China agreed to purchase 25 million metric tons per year in the following three years as part of the deal announced in late 2025. AP coverage in October 2025 cited Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent describing the commitment, and industry analyses highlighted that the framework aimed to resume and boost U.S. soybean exports to China. Reuters' February 2026 coverage notes ongoing discussions and potential state-actor purchases to please political leadership, but does not confirm a binding annual 25 MMT pledge has been legally locked in or reliably executed for 2026 onward.
Conversely, concrete milestones showing completion of the promise are not clearly documented in official U.S. government releases or China’s public trade data within the period through early 2026. Reuters emphasizes price pressures and the logistical costs of additional U.S. soybeans for China, suggesting that while purchases are possible, they are not guaranteed nor necessarily at the stated 25 MMT level each year. Independent farm-policy analyses (e.g., FarmDoc Daily) summarize the deal as including 12 MMT in the near term and 25 MMT annually in the subsequent years, but these sources reflect interpretation and market context rather than a verifiable, enforceable specification.
Reliability note: the core claim originates from a Treasury press environment and high‑level briefings, with subsequent reporting drawing on statements by U.S. officials and market observers. While multiple reputable outlets (AP, Reuters) discuss the framework and likely purchasing trajectories, there is insufficient public evidence of a codified, enforceable annual 25 MMT commitment that has been independently verified as completed for 2026–2028. Ongoing trade developments should be monitored for a formal, documented completion status.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 02:32 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Source framing and timing indicate this is tied to a formal agreement announced by U.S. officials. The Treasury release and contemporaneous reporting describe a three-year commitment of 25 million metric tons per year starting with an initial 12 million move toward the target by early 2026.
Progress evidence: The Treasury press materials (SB0353, Jan 8, 2026) explicitly state the framework obligates China to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years. AP reporting (dated late 2025–early 2026) echoes that China would begin with a 12 million metric ton tranche before settling into the 25 million per year level for the term. CNB/CNBC and farm-policy outlets also note the deal’s design to resume and sustain U.S. soybean exports to China under the agreement.
Current status: As of 2026-02-06, the arrangement is framed as established and in the early stage of implementation, with initial purchases underway and a three-year commitment in place. No authoritative public record indicates cancellation or outright failure of the framework, though actual annual purchases can be influenced by market conditions, weather, and bilateral negotiations. Completion, defined as three consecutive years of at least 25 million metric tons, has not yet occurred.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones include (1) the agreement framing announced by Treasury officials in late 2025, (2) an initial 12 million metric tons to be purchased by China by January 2026, and (3) the expectation that 25 million metric tons per year would be sustained for 2026–2028 (per reporting and the Treasury press release). Milestones beyond 2026 remain contingent on ongoing implementation and market dynamics.
Source reliability note: Coverage comes from the U.S. Department of the Treasury press release (SB0353) and Associated Press reporting, both of which are high-quality, reputable outlets for official statements. Additional trade-coverage outlets corroborate the framework’s existence and the 25 MMT annual target. The combination of official documentation and major, non-partisan reporting supports a cautious, fact-based assessment here.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 12:44 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The article asserts a new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence of progress: A White House fact sheet (Nov 2025) outlined a 12 MMT purchase in 2025 and at least 25 MMT annually in 2026–2028. In January 2026, Reuters reported China resumed U.S. soybean purchases and upheld the 25 MMT annual commitment through 2028, indicating continued adherence to the framework. Milestones and status: By early 2026, the 12 MMT target for 2025 had been met, with the ongoing 25 MMT/year commitment still in effect, but a three-year completion hinges on subsequent annual purchases. Reliability and incentives: The primary sources are official statements (White House fact sheet) and independent reporting (Reuters), which together provide a coherent view of commitments and execution; the actual realization depends on year-by-year demand and political dynamics. The incentives suggest a bargaining outcome aimed at stabilizing agricultural exports and broader trade relations, with compliance measured by annual purchase totals.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 11:19 AMfailed
Brief restatement of the claim: A new trade framework allegedly obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. The claim was attributed to a January 8, 2026 Treasury press engagement describing China’s commitments under that framework.
Progress evidence: Public official statements and credible reporting do not show verifiable, corroborated evidence that China began or agreed to purchase 25 million metric tons annually for three years. The primary source appears on the U.S. Treasury site, but subsequent reporting from major outlets did not produce independent confirmation of a binding three-year purchase obligation (and some coverage framed the figure as a purported summary of remarks rather than a formal, public treaty or agreement).
Completion status: There is no reliable public record confirming completion or even formal execution of a three-year, 25 million metric ton annual pledge. With no corroboration of a binding agreement or enforceable framework beyond unverified remarks, the claim remains unverified and likely not enacted as of 2026-02-06.
Dates and milestones: The claim cites a three-year commitment starting with an initial tranche, but no concrete milestones (shipment dates, contracting parties beyond public remarks, or official frameworks) are corroborated by standard sources. The lack of independent verification and absence of confirmatory government announcements or trade data weaken the credibility of any deadline-based progress.
Source reliability note: The Treasury press-release page contains the explicit claim, but there is insufficient corroboration from independent, high-quality outlets or primary trade data to establish a proven, actionable commitment. Reported summaries in outlets reference the claim but rely on the same unconfirmed remarks.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 09:09 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The claim asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The key source backing this is a January 2026 Treasury remarks speech that describes the framework, and prior reporting that framed the agreement as lasting three years starting with an initial 12 million metric tons in the near term (with the 25 million figure applying to the following three years).
Evidence of progress: Public reporting from October 2025 (AP) states China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually as part of a leaders’ agreement, with 12 million tons to be purchased in the initial period. The January 8, 2026 Treasury remarks reiterate the framework and the promised annual purchase level for the subsequent years, pointing to ongoing implementation rather than a completed, final shipment schedule.
Current status vs. completion: There is explicit intent and stated commitment, but no public confirmation of a fixed, completed annual purchase for all three years as of February 5, 2026. The arrangement is described as a multi-year framework with an initial season and annual targets, rather than a single completed contract with guaranteed annual quantities.
Milestones and reliability of sources: The most authoritative pieces are the Treasury remarks (official U.S. government source) and AP reporting summarizing the deal (reputable outlet). While AP notes an arrangement to buy 25 million metric tons annually through 2028, and Treasury speeches describe the framework, the exact, year-by-year purchase realizations in 2026–2028 remain contingent on ongoing negotiations and market conditions. Overall, sources are credible and consistent on the existence and structure of the commitment.
Reliability note: The follow-up relies on official statements and major wire reporting; there is no independent, audited disclosure of quarterly purchase totals yet, so interpretation should reflect the framework rather than a fully verified shipment ledger.
Scheduled follow-up · Feb 06, 2026
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 04:35 AMin_progress
Summary of the claim and current status: The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. Public reporting ties the promise to a three-year horizon beginning with a multi-year agreement reportedly reached by leaders, with an initial tranche of purchases to start immediately. Evidence shows China began purchases under the framework, with an initial 12 million metric tons to be bought by early 2026 and an annual target of 25 million metric tons through 2028, but the status remains ongoing rather than completed.
Progress evidence: Treasury remarks and subsequent coverage indicate the 25 MMT-per-year target for the three-year window, plus an initial 12 MMT purchase. AP, CNBC, AgWeb, and The Gazette all reference the framework and the 25 MMT commitment, with multiple outlets noting start-up purchases and the three-year timeline.
Completion status and milestones: As of February 2026, the framework has not been shown as fully completed; observers cite ongoing purchases and the three-year target rather than a formal close of the commitment. Concrete year-by-year verification through 2026–2028 is needed to confirm full compliance each year.
Reliability note: The claim is based on Treasury remarks and major outlets (AP, CNBC, AgWeb, The Gazette). While multiple sources corroborate the initial tranche and annual target, independent verification of each year’s actual purchases is required to confirm full achievement by 2028.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 02:50 AMin_progress
The claim states: under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting confirms a three-year commitment of 25 million metric tons annually, with early deliveries to begin at a lower volume (12 million metric tons) as the agreement ramps up. Multiple reputable outlets report the framework and the promised annual level, citing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and official communications. The evidence suggests progress toward the target, but final annual totals for each year depend on ongoing shipments and implementation.
Update · Feb 06, 2026, 01:03 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: A public AP News report from late October 2025 states that China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually as part of the deal, with an initial 12 million metric tons to be purchased by January 2026 and the three-year term ensuing. The AP piece specifically quotes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the 25 million metric ton annual commitment and the three-year duration. The Treasury’s January 8, 2026 remarks page also references the framework and the annual 25 million metric ton purchase for three years, reinforcing the claim as an official position cited by U.S. officials.
Completion status: Based on the reporting, the framework grants a three-year commitment of 25 million metric tons per year, beginning with an initial tranche and extending through 2028. As of February 2026, the arrangement appears to be underway (in progress) rather than completed, with ongoing purchases and public statements confirming the commitment’s scope and duration.
Milestones and dates: Key milestones cited include the initial 12 million metric tons by early 2026 and the annual 25 million metric tons through 2028, as described by AP and echoed in Treasury remarks. No independent government press release or White House fact sheet beyond these public statements is readily available in the provided sources to independently verify every milestone date, but the combination of AP reporting and Treasury remarks supports a multi-year commitment in effect.
Source reliability note: The Associated Press is a widely respected, independent wire service with standard editorial controls. The Treasury page (speeches/remarks) provides primary-source confirmation from a U.S. government official. Taken together, these sources offer a coherent view of the claim’s status, though the lack of a dedicated formal treaty document means interpretation rests on official public statements rather than a standalone binding instrument.
Follow-up: If needed, monitor Treasury remarks, White House briefings, and any formal trade framework updates for 2026–2028 milestones; scheduled follow-ups could be set for 2026-12-31 and 2027-12-31 to confirm continued annual purchases.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 10:49 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates a framework with high-level commitments and resumed purchases in late 2025, including a stated 25 million metric tons per year target and interim milestones through 2028. Milestones cited include China resuming soybean purchases in October 2025 and Treasury framing of the 25 MMT-per-year target, with initial 2026 data showing purchases below the full target in the early months. Reliability: Reports come from AP and major outlets (CNBC/NBC summaries) and Treasury remarks, which together support ongoing implementation rather than a finished completion as of early 2026. Status: The claim remains in_progress as of 2026-02-05, contingent on verifying year-by-year totals through 2026–2028 to meet the three-year commitment.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 08:53 PMin_progress
What the claim states: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public statements identified an initial 12 million metric tons purchase by early 2026 to start the framework, with 25 million metric tons annually through 2028 as the broader target. Progress evidence: Late-2025 briefings and White House materials described the 12 MMT near-term goal and the 25 MMT annual target for 2026–2028; by January 2026, Reuters reported about 12 MMT had been purchased, indicating ongoing execution toward the annual target. Current status: The three-year, 25 MMT-per-year commitment is in progress, with some purchases already fulfilled and ongoing shipments expected; final annual totals for 2026–2028 will determine completion. Milestones and dates: October 2025 trade-truce framing; November 2025 White House fact sheet detailing 12 MMT by end-2025 and 25 MMT annually through 2028; January 20, 2026 Reuters update confirming 12 MMT delivered and continuation toward the three-year target. Reliability note: The claim is supported by treasury and White House materials and corroborated by AP and Reuters reporting, indicating credible progress, though year-by-year fulfillment remains contingent on ongoing purchases. Follow-up: 2028-12-31
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 07:13 PMin_progress
Brief restatement of the claim: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. The evidence base shows an agreement reached by
Chinese and U.S. officials in late 2025, with an initial 12 million metric tons to be bought by January 2026 and a three-year framework for 25 MMT annually. Treasury remarks in January 2026 publicly framed the arrangement as part of President Trump’s trade policy, aligning with the reported deal structure. External reporting from AP corroborates the 25 MMT annual figure for three years and notes the initial 12 MMT tranche.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 04:34 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, beginning with a three-year commitment.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting in October 2025 indicated China agreed to start with about 12 million metric tons in the near term and commit to at least 25 million metric tons annually for the following three years, effectively tying future U.S. soybean exports to a multi-year schedule (AP, 2025-10-30; subsequent trade analyses).
Current status and milestones: As of early 2026, outlets describe China’s commitment lasting through 2028, with purchases already underway in late 2025 and annual purchases projected at 25 MMT per year for the subsequent years; independent verification for each year remains limited.
Reliability and caveats: Core verifiable elements include the initial 12 MMT window in late 2025 and a three-year, 25 MMT-per-year framework attributed to senior U.S. officials; coverage appears from AP and industry analyses rather than a single binding legal document with year-by-year accounting.
Incentives and context: The narrative situates policy incentives to bolster U.S. agriculture and leverage in bilateral talks, with China signaling a return to higher import levels; implications include price stability for U.S. soybean growers and potential planting decisions for upcoming seasons.
Notes on sources: Core details come from AP News reporting (AP, 2025-10-30) and subsequent trade-press coverage and analyses (FarmDoc Daily, AgWeb). These sources support a progress narrative but show varying emphasis and limited public year-by-year verification.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 02:31 PMin_progress
What the claim states: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. The claim is anchored to reports that a China–U.S. agreement set a 25 MMT annual target for 2026–2028, beginning with an initial 12 million metric tons by January 2026. Public summaries and follow-up coverage have described the commitment, but there is no universally verifiable, contemporaneous record of an enforceable mechanism or formal implementation details beyond initial announcements. (AP News; FarmDoc Daily; CNBC/coverage of the White House fact sheet).
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 01:03 PMin_progress
The claim states that a new trade framework obligates
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Public records indicate the administration framed a target of 25 million tons annually and China resumed purchases after a trade deal, with 12 million tons forecast for late 2025 and higher volumes discussed for 2026. Independent reporting shows progress toward higher U.S. soybean sales, but verifiable, year-by-year confirmation that China will meet the full 25 MMT annually for three consecutive years remains incomplete as of now. The reliability of sources ranges from Treasury remarks to AP and CNBC analyses, all noting both movement toward the target and uncertainties about whether the full three-year commitment is being met in practice.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 11:19 AMin_progress
What the claim states: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: A late-2025 deal reportedly commits China to 25 million metric tons annually for 2026–2028, with an initial 12 million-ton tranche by the end of 2025. Multiple outlets (AP, Reuters, CNBC) describe the framework and initial deliveries.
Current status: By early 2026, reports indicate China had begun meeting the pledge volumes, with the Treasury reaffirming the 25 MMT annual commitment for three years. Public coverage shows the 12 MMT milestone completed and ongoing annual purchases.
Milestones and dates: Key milestones are: October 2025 agreement; end-2025 12 MMT; 2026–2028 at least 25 MMT per year. Subsequent reporting through January 2026 tracks progress toward annual targets.
Reliability and incentives: Coverage from AP, Reuters, CNBC, and Treasury remarks provides triangulated confirmation, though implementation remains subject to verification and compliance in each year.
Follow-up note: A formal check in late 2026 or early 2027 would confirm whether the 25 MMT target was met in each year of the three-year period.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 08:54 AMin_progress
What the claim states: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
What evidence exists of progress: AP News reported that China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually, with an initial tranche of about 12 million metric tons before January 2026 and continuing at 25 million tons per year for the following three years. Treasury materials also reference the framework and its terms in early 2026 press content.
Current status and milestones: As of early 2026, multiple outlets describe the framework as in the execution phase for the three-year term, with annual purchases anticipated to recur each year under the agreement. Completion hinges on yearly procurement data and any contingent conditions around implementation.
Reliability and caveats: AP News is a reputable source for the claimed commitment and duration. Cross-checking with official agricultural export data and Treasury/White House statements would bolster verification and clarify any changes to milestones.
Follow-up: To determine whether China meets each annual purchase for the full three-year window, monitor 2026–2028 soy exports data and any official confirmations; a follow-up date could be 2028-01-01.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 04:45 AMin_progress
What the claim states: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, beginning under the stated agreement. The claim has circulated in official remarks and media reporting as the framework's stated pledge (25 million metric tons annually for three years). The key question is whether this commitment has been codified, is being measured in practice, and whether actual purchases have matched the pledge so far (by year and quarter).
Evidence of progress: Public summaries from U.S. Treasury remarks and subsequent reporting indicate that talks produced a framework with the 25 million metric ton commitment for three years, with initial purchases projected to begin within the coverage period (e.g., statements describing 12 million tons in the initial period and 25 million annually thereafter) (Treasury remarks, AP coverage).
What is completed, in progress, or unclear: As of early February 2026, there is no independently verifiable quarterly shipment ledger publicly published by the U.S. government confirming all three years of 25 million tons have been delivered. Treasury remarks frame the arrangement as active, but concrete, year-by-year shipment data and enforcement details have not been released in widely accessible, neutral records. Some outlets described the deal as part of a broader trade framework, with initial purchases and ongoing commitments folded into the administration’s public messaging (Treasury remarks, Jan. 8, 2026; AP coverage).
Dates and milestones: The claim references a three-year window beginning with the framework’s implementation, with reporting around 12 million tons in the initial period and 25 million tons annually thereafter (AP, 2025; Purdue/AgWeb summaries). No formal, government-published completion certificate or annual purchase tally has been issued to date (Feb 2026). If the arrangement proceeds on its stated schedule, milestones would include annual purchase tallies reaching or maintaining 25 million metric tons per year over three consecutive years.
Source reliability and incentives: The principal sources are U.S. Treasury press materials and reputable wire-service reporting (AP). Treasury remarks carry official weight but did not, in the cited materials, present a fully auditable buy ledger or enforceable contract terms publicly. Given the high-stakes nature of U.S.–China trade framing, scrutiny should rely on independent data releases (agriculture export statistics from the USDA and Treasury/IIP filings) to confirm ongoing purchases and any deviations. Overall, the available materials support the existence of a pledged framework, but concrete, independently verifiable progress data remain limited as of February 2026.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 03:12 AMin_progress
The claim states under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Public reporting indicates the framework sets 25 MMT annually with an initial 12 MMT tranche by early 2026 and full 25 MMT thereafter for the three-year period. Evidence of progress includes Treasury remarks (Jan 8, 2026) and AP reporting confirming the multi-year target; no final completion by Feb 2026 is documented. The completion condition would occur after three consecutive years (roughly through 2028), but verification depends on annual U.S. soy exports data. Source reliability is high (AP News, Treasury) though some outlets frame the deal in broader political context; ongoing monitoring is needed to verify year-by-year purchases.
Update · Feb 05, 2026, 01:28 AMin_progress
What the claim states: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The framing in Treasury remarks and White House materials presents 25 million metric tons annually through 2028 as the stated commitment.
Update · Feb 04, 2026, 11:09 PMin_progress
The claim restates a three-year obligation for
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually under a new trade framework. Public reporting indicates an initial 12 million metric tons purchase to occur between late 2025 and January 2026, followed by 25 million metric tons annually for 2026–2028 (AP News; Treasury SB0353 briefing).
As of early 2026, there is limited public verification that the full 25 MMT yearly commitments have been fulfilled, and status depends on ongoing implementation and market conditions. Independent, audited trade data confirming all three annual purchases have not been publicly released.
The reliability of the claim rests on statements from Treasury officials and media summaries; no comprehensive, contemporaneous third-party confirmation has been published. The situation remains contingent on ongoing negotiations, enforcement, and calibration of
Chinese purchases.
Follow-up should track actual annual purchases and any official confirmations or revisions to the commitment once complete trade data become publicly available.
Update · Feb 04, 2026, 08:47 PMin_progress
Claim restated: A new trade framework allegedly obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The claim originated from public remarks attributed to Treasury officials and was echoed in media reports in late 2025. As of early 2026, there is no widely publicized, binding government agreement with enforceable terms confirmed by multiple independent authorities.
Update · Feb 04, 2026, 07:20 PMin_progress
Claim restated: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly stated that China would buy 25 million metric tons annually as part of the agreement, with an initial tranche of 12 million metric tons to be purchased by January 2026, and the arrangement described as lasting three years (AP News, 2025-10-30; Treasury remarks, 2026-01-08).
Current status: The 25 MMT annual commitment is described as ongoing, with the first-year purchases already underway or planned, but no final completion has occurred. The three-year period extends into 2028, and there has been no reported termination or cancellation of the framework as of early 2026.
Milestones and dates: Initial 12 MMT tranche to be purchased by January 2026 was highlighted, followed by aggregate annual purchases of at least 25 MMT for each of the three years of the agreement (AP News, 2025-10-30; SB0353 press release, 2026-01-08).
Source reliability note: Reporting from AP News is corroborated by the Treasury’s January 8, 2026 remarks, which frame the commitment as a three-year framework linked to U.S. agriculture and policy priorities. Both sources are consistent and come from widely respected outlets for factual policy reporting.
Follow-up considerations: Given the three-year horizon, monitoring quarterly or annual
Chinese purchases and any changes to the framework would be prudent to determine full completion or adjustments to the pledge.
Update · Feb 04, 2026, 04:30 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article claimed that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The Treasury press release (Jan 8, 2026) asserts the framework includes a pledge for China to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years, starting in 2026. Independent verification as of early February 2026 shows progress on the commitment is partial and developing rather than fully completed.
What progress exists: Reuters independent reporting (Jan 20, 2026) states China has already purchased about 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, meeting a U.S.-stated target to buy that volume by the end of February, with purchases by Sinograin and COFCO. Reuters also notes the White House statement that China had agreed to buy at least 25 million metric tons annually over the next three years, beginning in 2026. This indicates progress toward the annual target but not full fulfillment for the entire three-year period yet.
Current status of the promise: As of Jan–Feb 2026, China had resumed purchases and hit the 12 million-ton mark for the first cycle, but the annual 25 million metric ton target remains in the early stages of implementation. The three-year completion condition (no less than 25 MMT each year for three consecutive years) is still in progress, with only partial annual execution observed so far according to Reuters summaries.
Dates and milestones: The initial pledge is referenced in late-October 2025–early-2026 diplomatic communications and reiterated by U.S. officials in late 2025–January 2026. The 12 million-ton achievement occurred by January 2026, with continued shipments expected through February and beyond, aiming toward the 25 MMT annual target in each of the following two years if sustained. The Treasury page itself provides the framing, while Reuters provides the independent milestone reporting.
Reliability of sources: The Treasury press release is an official U.S. government source outlining the agreement. Reuters is a major, reputable news outlet with direct sourcing from traders and market participants; it notes both the 12 million-ton delivery milestone and the stated 25 MMT annual pledge. Taken together, these sources support the claim’s existence and current progress while indicating the status remains in progress rather than complete.
Follow-up note: If the three-year framework is intended to run through 2028, a follow-up should assess whether China sustains at least 25 MMT annually by the end of 2026 and 2027, with a final verification by 2028-12-31.
Update · Feb 04, 2026, 02:29 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: multiple reputable outlets reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an agreement wherein China would buy 25 million metric tons annually as part of a three-year deal, with initial purchases of about 12 million metric tons to start between late 2025 and early 2026 (AP News, 2025-10-30). Additional reporting indicated that China resumed soybean purchases in late 2025, supporting the existence of ongoing commitments (CNBC, 2025-12-09). Interim assessments suggest the 25 MMT annual target covers a three-year window through 2028, with the initial tranche aligning with the start of 2026 (AgWeb, 2025-11-03; Farmdoc Daily, 2025-11-17). Completion status: as of 2026-02-04, the deal is in its early phase; three full years have not yet elapsed, and no final year-by-year milestone has been publicly closed out, so the promise remains in_progress rather than completed. Reliability note: coverage comes from AP, CNBC, AgWeb, and Farmdoc Daily—generally reputable outlets; the Treasury page linked to the claim likewise frames the arrangement as a multi-year commitment.
Update · Feb 04, 2026, 12:48 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts a new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. It frames this as a binding commitment that would run for three consecutive years, starting within the near term.
Evidence progress: Public reporting indicates an agreement was announced by late 2025, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating China would buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years. Initial purchases were described as starting with about 12 million tons to be shipped between now and January (2026 in some reports), signaling the deal has moved from negotiation to implementation steps (AP, Oct 2025; AP follow-up Jan 2026). Treasury remarks explicitly reference the three-year commitment in early 2026.
Current status: As of February 4, 2026, there is no public, independently verifiable data showing China has consistently purchased the full 25 million metric tons in each of the three years. The available reporting confirms the framework and an initial tranche (12 million tons) was expected, but does not confirm year-by-year fulfillment for the entire period. The three-year window, per sources, would extend through 2028 if the agreement began in late 2025.
Milestones and dates: Key milestones include the announced deal in October 2025, the initial 12 million-ton tranche planned through January, and January 2026 Treasury remarks reiterating the 25 million tons per year for three years. These items establish a framework and early progress but not final completion data for all three years.
Reliability and sources: Core details come from high-quality outlets and official statements, notably The Associated Press coverage of the announced deal and Treasury remarks (AP, 2025–2026) and corroborating summaries (CNBC, Spectrum/Local News, FarmDoc Daily). The Treasury page publishing Secretary Bessent’s remarks provides the clearest official articulation of the framework, though independent verification of ongoing purchases remains limited.
Incentives note: The claim sits at the intersection of political signaling and agricultural economics. The incentives for China include securing soybean supplies and stabilizing agricultural markets, while U.S. incentives center on supporting farmers and maintaining leverage in trade talks. As policy and market conditions evolve, the incentive structure may shift the likelihood of sustained, annual 25 million-ton purchases.
Update · Feb 04, 2026, 08:59 AMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Late-2025 reporting indicated China agreed to 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaling the commitment. Treasury remarks in January 2026 reiterate the 25 MMT figure as part of the framework.
Milestones and timeline: The three-year commitment would cover 2025–2028 per 2025 announcements, with annual purchases of at least 25 MMT. Publicly available data confirming year-by-year purchases for 2026 and 2027 remained limited by February 2026.
Current status: As of early 2026, the framework exists as an agreed target, but independent verification of completed annual purchases for each year had not been published. Coverage attributes the arrangement to ongoing negotiations and implementation rather than a closed-book fulfillment.
Sources and reliability: Key disclosures come from U.S. Treasury material and contemporaneous reporting (AP News, farmdoc daily). Cross-checks with official purchase tallies were not widely available in early 2026, so conclusions rely on official statements and credible media coverage.
Update · Feb 04, 2026, 04:54 AMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: Reports describe an arrangement under which China would begin with 12 million metric tons by January 2026 and then buy at least 25 million metric tons annually for three years, according to Treasury remarks and coverage of the agreement.
Current status and completion: The arrangement is active but unfinished by the current date; the three-year purchase commitment spans 2026–2028, with initial 12 million tons in early 2026 and annual 25 million-ton targets to follow. There is no documented final completion date beyond the three-year horizon in the cited sources.
Milestones and reliability: Milestones include initial 12 million tons by January 2026 and 25 million tons annually through 2028; reliability is supported by Treasury statements and major news coverage, with cross-source corroboration though limited public contractual text.
Reliability note: The Treasury release and credible outlets (AP summaries, academic briefings) align on the numeric framework, reinforcing the reported figures while noting the absence of a widely publicized, formal binding text beyond official statements.
Update · Feb 04, 2026, 03:41 AMin_progress
The claim rests on a framework that
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Public records show the commitment was announced with a three-year horizon, including 25 MMT per year for 2026–2028, and an initial 12 MMT purchase in late 2025. This combination of White House fact sheets, Treasury remarks, and corroborating reporting indicates a formal pledge and underway purchases but not yet a fully verified, completed fulfillment as of early 2026.
Update · Feb 04, 2026, 01:56 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting confirms a late-2025 agreement that includes 12 million metric tons in the remainder of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually for 2026–2028, effectively restoring higher import levels (AP News). The White House fact sheet corroborates the 25 MMT annual target through 2028, indicating progress toward the promised framework. As of February 2026, the three-year completion window has not elapsed, with ongoing purchases anticipated under the agreement.
Update · Feb 03, 2026, 11:55 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article states a new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. Public reporting indicates the structure includes an initial 12 million metric tons in late 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually for the following three years, aligning with statements attributed to U.S. officials. This framing is echoed in AP and CNBC coverage from late 2025.
Evidence of progress: Reports show China resumed U.S. soybean purchases after the deal was reached, with 12 million tons slated for late 2025 and expectations for 25 MMT per year into 2026–2028. USDA-tracked data and Treasury remarks have framed the deal as progressing toward the promised annual pace, though actual monthly totals through late 2025 did not yet meet the 25 MMT annual target.
Current status and milestones: By early 2026, the framework was publicly described as in effect and on track, with the 25 MMT-per-year target framed as the three-year commitment starting in 2026. Independent reporting notes that initial purchases fell short of the full annual pace in late 2025, suggesting the 25 MMT target remains a forward-looking goal rather than a completed annual outcome for that period.
Reliability and interpretation: The principal milestones derive from AP reporting on the deal terms and timing, corroborated by CNBC’s tracking of actual shipments against targets. Given incentives on both sides, corroborating data from USDA soy export figures and Treasury confirmations are essential to assess adherence beyond initial announcements.
Notes on sources and follow-up: This assessment draws on AP News coverage (Bessent soybean agreement), CNBC reporting on actual purchases versus targets, and the Treasury press release context. A formal update would require the latest USDA export data and a Treasury/White House confirmation of milestones through 2026 and beyond. Follow-up date: 2026-12-31.
Update · Feb 03, 2026, 08:34 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This framing mirrors public summaries of a late-2025 agreement in which a 25 MMT-per-year target was discussed as part of a broader deal with China, rather than a fixed, legally binding contract published in early 2026. Treasury materials describe a framework and an aspirational target, but do not publicly publish a year-by-year binding purchase schedule for 2026–2028.
Update · Feb 03, 2026, 07:16 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article claimed that under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence of progress: In late October 2025, leaders framed a deal re-opening
Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans, with the White House saying China would buy at least 25 million metric tons annually for three years. By January 20, 2026, Reuters reported about 12 million metric tons had been bought, fulfilling a 12 million-ton target by February and signaling ongoing purchases (likely to continue into the next months). Treasury remarks from January 8, 2026 reiterate the 25 MMT annual pledge, anchoring the framework in U.S. policy commentary.
Progress status: The core commitment to 25 MMT annually remains a stated objective, but actual purchases in early 2026 show partial execution rather than full three-year compliance. Completion by year three has not been demonstrated and relies on continued purchases through 2028. Completion date: No fixed date beyond the three-year annual target; the window is defined by ongoing annual purchases.
Milestones and dates: The October 2025 negotiation framed the 25 MMT annual target; January 2026 reporting indicated 12 MMT had been purchased to date, with shipments scheduled Dec–May. The Treasury materials from Jan 8, 2026 reaffirm the pledge, but do not confirm full-year fulfillment. Market reporting from Reuters corroborates the ongoing nature of the commitments and the seasonal nature of soybean shipments.
Source reliability: Official U.S. Treasury remarks provide the governing framing, while AP News and Reuters offer contemporaneous verification and market-theory context. Taken together, they support a picture of an objective in motion rather than a completed obligation.
Follow-up note: Given the three-year pledge window and the current pace, reassess after the 2026–2028 period to determine whether China sustains purchases at or above 25 MMT annually. Follow-up date: 2026-12-31.
Update · Feb 03, 2026, 04:27 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, beginning with a commitment that China will buy no less than 25 million metric tons each year for three consecutive years.
Evidence of progress: Reporting from reputable outlets in late October 2025 described an agreement in which China would purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, with the initial purchases beginning around January 2026. AP coverage (Oct 30, 2025) attributed the figure to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, noting a start with 12 million metric tons by January and outlining the three-year run.
Current status: As of February 3, 2026, there is no publicly verified confirmation that China is meeting or fully delivering the 25 million metric tons per year for the full three-year period. Public, high-quality sources indicate the agreement existed and was framed as a multi-year commitment, but ongoing purchases and compliance details have not been independently corroborated in the record available up to now.
Milestones: The prominent milestone cited is the January 2026 start of the program, with the three-year horizon running through 2028. Independent confirmation of year-by-year fulfillment beyond initial purchases has not been documented in mainstream, verifiable sources available publicly.
Source reliability: The claim originated from high-profile outlets citing Treasury officials, with initial reporting corroborated by AP and other major outlets in late 2025. The Treasury page linked in the prompt contains remarks of a political nature and should be weighed separately from formal policy documents; it does not independently establish the factual basis for the specific purchases. Given the lack of verifiable, up-to-date fulfillment data, the assessment remains cautious and status-labeled as in_progress.
Update · Feb 03, 2026, 02:34 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting confirms a deal structure that secures 25 million metric tons per year, but the three-year period began only after the agreement was reached in late 2025, so the full three-year requirement has not yet elapsed as of early 2026.
Evidence of progress includes the October 30, 2025 agreement announcement reporting that China would buy 25 million metric tons annually and that an initial 12 million metric tons would be purchased in 2025/early 2026, with the three-year commitment to follow. AP coverage also notes that the arrangement runs for three years, contingent on ongoing implementation and market conditions (AP News, 2025). Treasury remarks from January 2026 reiterate the framework’s existence but do not confirm three-year completion.
As of February 2026, the arrangement is in the early phase of implementation: China has been reported to start with an initial purchase tranche (about 12 MMT) and the annual 25 MMT commitment remains in force for the subsequent years (2026–2028) per the deal terms referenced by multiple outlets (AP, 2025; Market/Policy analyses). No independent payment-by-payment ledger is publicly available to verify every purchase milestone in real time.
Concrete milestones to watch include confirming sustained annual purchases of 25 MMT in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028 and any official disclosures from Treasury or trade partners about actual volumes traded monthly or quarterly. If the three-year cycle completes with at least 25 MMT purchased each year, the claim would approach fulfillment; if volumes fall short, the status would shift toward partial progress or failure depending on the deviation.
Source reliability: coverage from AP News and independent policy analyses provides initial, corroborated detail on the agreement and its claimed volume commitments. Treasury press materials confirm the existence of the framework, but ongoing execution data remains best tracked through official U.S. government updates and commodity-market reporting rather than a single public ledger.
Update · Feb 03, 2026, 12:39 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting in late 2025 indicates China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons per year for the following three years, with an initial 12 million metric tons slated for late 2025/early 2026 and the 25 MMT annual pace to commence thereafter (AP News, 2025; FarmDocDaily, 2025).
Current status and milestones: As of early 2026, independent analyses describe the framework as in effect or underway, but concrete, verifiable year-by-year purchase totals for 2026 and 2027 are not publicly cataloged in a centralized, official ledger. The available reporting suggests the 25 MMT annual commitment exists, but exact execution data (shipments, receipts, and volumes by quarter) remain incomplete or not uniformly disclosed. In short, the arrangement appears to be in progress rather than completed.
Reliability and context: Major outlets (AP News) and agricultural policy analyses (FarmDocDaily; AgWeb summaries) provide the core details on the claimed commitment, reinforcing that the 25 MMT annual target is tied to an overarching framework announced in late 2025. The Treasury press material in early January 2026 references broader trade themes but does not independently verify quarterly purchase data. Given the incentives and political framing around agricultural exports, it is prudent to treat verifiable progress as partial and ongoing until official purchase records are released.
Notes on sources: The claim aligns with AP reporting (Oct 2025) and subsequent policy analyses that describe a 12 MMT initial purchase with 25 MMT annually for the next three years, rather than a fully documented, year-by-year traceable commitment through 2028. These sources are used here to establish the status of the commitment; no single official government purchase ledger publicly confirms all milestones to date.
Follow-up: If available, request official quarterly/annual procurement data from U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Trade representatives to confirm 2026–2028 purchases against the 25 MMT annual target.
Update · Feb 03, 2026, 11:04 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting in late October 2025 described an agreement in which China would buy 25 million metric tons annually, with initial purchases beginning earlier in the year, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (AP, 2025-10-30). Subsequent coverage and fact sheets from other outlets reinforced the 25 million metric ton annual target for three years, though details on the exact start date and whether the three-year window has begun vary by account (AP, 2025-10-30; AgWeb, 2025-11-03). There is no independently verified, government-authenticated schedule confirming that China has met the full annual milestone for each of the three years as of February 2026.
Update · Feb 03, 2026, 10:17 AMin_progress
What the claim states: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. What progress exists: Public reporting indicates China resumed U.S. soybean purchases after a late-October meeting, with about 12 million metric tons bought by late January 2026 as part of the broader truce. The White House and Treasury have framed the arrangement as a three-year commitment to 25 million metric tons annually, but initial shipments reflect a phased entry rather than a fixed annual total from day one. Has the promise been completed or canceled: No; three full years have not elapsed and the annual target has not been conclusively met as a standing annual total, with ongoing purchases and verification. Relevant dates and milestones: late October 2025 leaders’ meeting; by January 20, 2026 Reuters reported roughly 12 million tons delivered with an expectation of continued purchases toward the 25 million figure annually; the Treasury remarks on January 8, 2026 frame the target as three-year commitment. Source reliability: Reuters and AP are reputable outlets; Treasury remarks provide official framing of the arrangement. Follow-up considerations: Future reporting should track quarterly trade data and official clarifications to determine whether 25 million metric tons annually is sustained through 2026–2028.
Update · Feb 02, 2026, 10:38 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates China agreed to resume purchases and that an initial 12 million metric tons were to be bought by the end of 2025, with a framework promising 25 million metric tons annually in 2026–2028 per White House fact sheets and reputable outlets (AP, CNBC).
Current status: As of early February 2026, the commitment exists as part of a publicized agreement, with initial 2025 shipments and a stated longer-term annual target. Independent verification for 2026 remains limited, so the completion condition (three consecutive years at or above 25 MMT) cannot be confirmed yet.
Milestones and dates: 2025-10 to 2025-12 saw the announcement of 12 MMT in late 2025 and the 25 MMT annual target through 2028; 2026 public statements reaffirm the framework, but concrete 2026 and 2027 procurement data is not fully verified.
Reliability and incentives: The cited sources (AP, White House fact sheet, CNBC) are standard for tracking major trade commitments, but the absence of detailed shipment metrics means cautious interpretation. Given political incentives around messaging, independent trade statistics will be important to confirm ongoing adherence to the 25 MMT target.
Update · Feb 02, 2026, 08:30 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Treasury remarks citing this framework were made in early January 2026, but independent records show a broader, multi-year commitment rather than a single three-year window starting from that date.
There is evidence of progress consistent with a multi-year commitment. Reuters reported in January 2026 that China had bought about 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, fulfilling a pledge to reach that volume by the end of February 2026. This followed a late-October 2025 truce that led to resumed purchases.
The White House fact sheet from November 2025 explicitly states that China will purchase at least 12 million metric tons in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028. AP coverage likewise described a 25 MMT annual target for three years within a broader framework.
CNBC and other outlets corroborate the 25 million metric tons per year target through 2028, tying it to the same overarching deal that began with a 12 million-ton near-term purchase. The consistency across Reuters, AP, and White House materials supports the interpretation of a multi-year framework rather than a straight three-year cliff from 2026.
Given the public reporting, the completion status is best described as in_progress: shipments and purchases are ongoing across 2026–2028, with concrete deliveries already occurring and annual targets in place. There is no fixed, single completion date beyond the 2028 horizon, and ongoing updates will determine whether the target is met each year.
Reliability note: sources include Reuters, AP, CNBC, and White House fact sheets, which collectively provide a credible, cross-verifiable picture of the multi-year commitment. The January 8, 2026 Treasury remarks echo the same framework but offer less contractual specificity than the independent reporting and official White House materials.
Update · Feb 02, 2026, 07:04 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This language appears in Treasury remarks and has been echoed in White House and other reports tied to a late-2025 trade agreement. The underlying framework is presented as a three-year annual commitment to purchase 25 MMT from
the United States.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates China resumed substantial purchases of U.S. soybeans in late 2025 as part of the agreement. The White House and multiple outlets referenced an arrangement restoring pre-crisis trade volumes, with a stated goal of 25 MMT per year through 2028. By December 2025, outlets noted purchases aligned with the tripwire of the deal, including an initial tranche of imports and a longer-term commitment spanning several years.
Current status and milestones: As of early February 2026, the framework remains in effect with the stated annual target of 25 MMT through 2028, though exact quarterly milestones beyond the annual target are not consistently delineated in public summaries. Reports from major outlets and official briefings corroborate the existence of the agreement and ongoing soybean purchases, but detailed year-by-year confirmations beyond the initial years are limited in public records.
Source reliability and incentives: Coverage includes AP, CNBC, and White House/official summaries, which are credible for policy-level claims but vary in specificity about purchase cadence. Given incentives in messaging from Treasury remarks and the White House, public emphasis has been on commitments and resumed trade flows rather than granular, independently verifiable shipment-by-shipment data. Where possible, cross-checks with official fact sheets or bilateral statements would strengthen validation.
Update · Feb 02, 2026, 04:29 PMin_progress
The claim asserts that a new trade framework obligates
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting frames the agreement as China committing to 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025 and 25 million metric tons annually through 2028, with a three-year horizon beginning in 2025 (AP, 2025-10-30; AgWeb, 2025-11-03).
As of early 2026, there is no independently verifiable, public ledger confirming full, year-by-year fulfillment for 2026 and 2027; trade activity has included initial purchases under the broader deal, but ongoing, committed annual volumes beyond 2025 remain subject to confirmation (CNBC, 2025-12-09; AP, 2025-10-30).
Sources emphasize that the framework’s key milestone is China’s sustained annual intake of 25 MMT, but coverage and verification of year-over-year compliance are not uniformly documented across outlets. The U.S. Treasury and White House communications tied to the deal have reiterated the 25 MMT figure as a long-term commitment, yet independent verification of shipments through 2026–2028 is limited in public reporting (AP, 2025-10-30; AgWeb, 2025-11-03).
Given the date of the Treasury press release (January 8, 2026) and subsequent coverage, the arrangement appears to be moving from announcement to implementation, with early-stage purchases aligning with a three-year commitment period. However, there is no definitive, public accounting of complete fulfillment for the 2026 and 2027 years. Therefore, the status is best described as in_progress rather than completed or definitively failed (Yahoo Finance/AP, 2025-10-30; AgWeb, 2025-11-03).
Reliability notes: major outlets (AP, CNBC, AgWeb) reported the terms and timelines, but independent verification of ongoing annual volumes is sparse. The Treasury’s own press materials and the accompanying remarks frame the deal as a binding, multi-year commitment, but they do not provide an auditable, year-by-year shipment record. Readers should treat public judgments of progress as contingent on forthcoming shipment data and quarterly or annual verification reports (AP, 2025-10-30; CNBC, 2025-12-09).
Incentives and interpretation: the deal aligns U.S. agriculture interests with a large, durable buyer in China, potentially stabilizing soybean prices and export volumes. The incentives for both sides—China to secure supply and U.S. farmers to maintain steady demand—support continued pursuit of the 25 MMT target, but political and economic developments could affect actual purchases over the three-year window (AP, 2025-10-30; AgWeb, 2025-11-03).
Update · Feb 02, 2026, 02:30 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that a new trade framework obligates
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Current publicly verifiable evidence for such a precise purchase commitment is not found; the Treasury page cited appears to be a general remarks document rather than a formal, enforceable agreement with a staged completion date. Available sources do not corroborate a binding three-year, 25-million-ton annual commitment by China as described. If new official text emerges, its completion status should be reassessed against concrete milestones.
Update · Feb 02, 2026, 12:52 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: Reporting confirms an initial tranche and a three-year commitment, with Treasury remarks in late 2025 and early 2026 indicating China would buy 25 million metric tons annually and an initial 12 million metric tons due through January 2026. Status: There is no public verification that China has sustained 25 million metric tons in each year of the three-year period as of 2026-02-02; ongoing monitoring is required. Dates and milestones: Key items include the October–December 2025 announcements of the framework and the January 2026 initiation of purchases. Reliability: Sources include the U.S. Treasury press release and AP coverage, both credible and consistent about the framework and initial buy activity, though they do not confirm full-year fulfillment for all three years yet. Incentives note: Coverage aligns with official framing of a negotiated deal and initial implementation, with continued reporting needed to assess steady-state compliance across the three-year term.
Update · Feb 02, 2026, 11:16 AMin_progress
What the claim states: The Treasury-promoted framework would require
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
What progress there is: Public statements in late 2025 described an agreement in which China would buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the 2025–2026 season and at least 25 million metric tons annually thereafter through 2028, with the 25 MMT figure cited as the annual commitment in some accounts and fact sheets.
What is completed or still in flux: There is no public, independently verified record that China has legally or contractually agreed to lock in 25 MMT every year for three consecutive years starting in 2026. Initial purchases around the 2025–2026 season have existed at lower levels (e.g., 12 MMT for the current season), but a firm, three-year 25 MMT-per-year completion remains unconfirmed and not evidenced by a binding multi-year contract.
Dates and milestones: October 2025 reports describe the 12 MMT near-term purchase and a broader 25 MMT annual target through 2028 per some White House/fact-sheet summaries. January 2026 Treasury remarks reiterate the framework’s existence but do not show a completed three-year, 25 MMT-per-year track record. Reliability: coverage from AP, Reuters, and Treasury statements aligns on the framework’s existence and the near-term purchases, but there is no independent verification confirming three consecutive years of 25 MMT purchases as of 2026-02-02.
Reliability note: The cited sources include AP News, Reuters, and Treasury communications, which are consistent about the framework but do not establish a binding, multi-year 25 MMT commitment.
Follow-up rationale: Given the absence of a confirmed binding three-year 25 MMT commitment, a future update should verify actual purchase volumes for each subsequent year.
Update · Feb 02, 2026, 08:44 AMin_progress
What the claim stated: The article claimed that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. What the evidence shows progress has been made: multiple outlets reported that, in late October 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced China had agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years as part of a broader agreement; subsequent reporting highlighted a staged rollout beginning with significant purchases (including 12 million tons by the end of 2025) and ongoing talks for the annual 25 million-ton level through 2028 (e.g., AP, CNBC, farm policy outlets). The Treasury’s January 8, 2026 remarks also reiterated the commitment in talking points about the framework. When and how the promise stands now: as of February 2026, there is public acknowledgment of the framework and the stated annual target, but public verification of consistently meeting the 25 million tons each year beyond the initial 2025-2026 period remains limited to official statements and third-party analyses. Reliable milestones: October 30, 2025 announcement of the 25 million tons annual target; December 2025 reporting of resumed U.S. soybean purchases by China; January 8, 2026 Treasury remarks restating the framework and commitment. Reliability of sources: coverage from AP News, CNBC, Illinois FarmDoc (policy analysis), and Treasury communications provides a mix of primary (Treasury remarks) and independent reporting, aiding cross-check of the claim, though independent verification of year-by-year tonnage through 2028 is still emerging. Overall assessment: the claim corresponds to an announced commitment and early progress, but a conclusive determination that China has consistently purchased ≥25 million metric tons annually for three consecutive years has not been independently verified as of early February 2026.
Update · Feb 02, 2026, 04:14 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: Under a new framework,
China is obligated to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: reports indicate China fulfilled an initial 12 MMT purchase and that the three-year, 25 MMT annual target was set to run through 2028, with early 2026 data showing substantial purchases and public statements confirming ongoing commitment. Completion status: as of 2026-02-01 the full 25 MMT per year for all three years had not been conclusively completed; policy shifts and changing incentives in U.S. trade policy introduce risk to the longer-term commitment. Dates/milestones: October 2025 framework; initial 12 MMT by January 2026; 25 MMT annually for 2026–2028, with ongoing uncertainty due to policy dynamics. Source reliability: coverage from official Treasury/press materials and reputable outlets (AP News) provides contemporaneous reporting and caveats about policy risk; assessments from farm/economics outlets corroborate the deal’s structure and potential volatility.
Update · Feb 02, 2026, 02:11 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The underlying assertion traces to a late-2025 agreement referenced by Treasury officials and summarized in multiple outlets, indicating China would buy 25 million metric tons each year for a three-year period beginning around the end of 2025. Independent analysis has echoed the size and duration of the commitment, though details vary on implementation timing and milestones (e.g., initial purchases by January 2026).
Evidence of progress centers on the negotiated framework and reported near-term purchases rather than a long-running, verifiable stream of shipments. AP News quoted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in late October 2025 saying China had agreed to the 25 million metric tons annually, with reporting suggesting steps to begin with a 12 million metric ton tranche by early 2026 or by the end of 2025 in some summaries. Agricultural policy analysts have discussed the deal as a return to higher
Chinese purchases after a period of reduced imports, but concrete, year-by-year shipment data for 2026 has not been independently verified in major outlets as of early February 2026.
As of 2026-02-01, there is no publicly verifiable record confirming that China has consistently purchased 25 MMT in each of the three calendar years starting 2025 or 2026. Market-tracking outlets and farm policy analyses note the agreement and describe expected milestones (e.g., 12 MMT by January and 25 MMT annually through 2028), but definitive purchase tallies for 2026 appear unavailable in high-quality, independent reporting at this time. The Treasury press page likewise reiterates the framework but does not publish ongoing shipment totals. This places the claim in_progress rather than complete or failed.
Dates and milestones cited in the reporting include the October 2025 public statements about the 25 MMT annual commitment and subsequent analyses that framed the deal as lasting through 2028 (three-year horizon from the late-2025 agreement). The most concrete near-term milestone referenced is the initial 12 MMT tranche or start of the annual 25 MMT flow by/through early 2026, with continued purchases anticipated through 2028 depending on the agreement’s interpretation by policymakers. Given the absence of corroborated year-by-year shipment data for 2026, the status remains best characterized as in_progress, pending verifiable import volumes for the current year.
Update · Feb 02, 2026, 12:22 AMin_progress
Claim restated: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, starting with a 12 million-ton purchase by January and continuing at or above 25 million tons each year for three consecutive years.
Evidence of progress: Reporting indicates an agreement reached by China and U.S. leaders in late October 2025, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaling a 25 million metric ton annual commitment for three years and an initial 12 million-ton tranche by January 2026. AP summarized the arrangement as lasting through 2028, with corroboration from agriculture policy briefs.
Current status and milestones: By February 2026, the initial 12 MT shipment window had begun, and the three-year term would extend through 2028. Public records do not show completion of three full years at or above 25
MT each year, but the framework appears in progress toward the target.
Reliability of sources: The claim is supported by AP reporting and Treasury remarks, which provide direct quotes and milestones. The Treasury page also places the framework in the context of official policy announcements, reinforcing the same core commitment.
Incentives context: The deal links U.S. agricultural export incentives to
Chinese supply assurances, potentially stabilizing markets for U.S. farmers while offering China predictable soybean imports. Ongoing verification will be needed to confirm annual volumes and any deviations.
Update · Feb 01, 2026, 10:13 PMin_progress
The claim restates a pledge that
China would buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years under a new trade framework. As of late January 2026, public reporting indicates China had purchased about 12 million metric tons toward meeting that broader target by the end of February, signaling progress but not yet the full annual 25 MMT for each of the three years. Independent verification of the full 25 MMT annual commitment for all three years remains incomplete as of the current date. Ongoing trade data releases and official statements are needed to confirm completion. The strongest near-term evidence comes from Reuters reporting on the 12 MMT milestone and the Treasury framing of the pledge; the claim thus appears plausible but not fully confirmed at this time.
Update · Feb 01, 2026, 08:10 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The agreement was publicly framed as requiring China to buy 25 million metric tons each year for 2026–2028, with an initial note that 12 million metric tons would be purchased in late 2025 as part of the phased implementation (per White House fact sheet accompanying the deal) and then 25 million metric tons annually thereafter. This framing relies on a multi-year commitment rather than a single-year target.
Evidence of progress includes a late-2025 rollout where China was reported to purchase 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the final two months of 2025, setting the stage for broader annual purchases. Public statements from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and accompanying White House materials described the deal as enabling at least 25 million metric tons per year beginning in 2026 and continuing through 2028. Independent analysis and media coverage at the time reinforced the 25 MMT annual target for the subsequent years, contingent on implementation.
As of February 1, 2026, there is no publicly available, official, month-by-month export data confirming that China has fully met the 25 MMT per year target for 2026 or that the three-year completion condition has been satisfied. The framework and commitments are in place, and initial 2025 deliveries occurred, but verification of ongoing 2026 shipments and compliance for 2027–2028 remains to be observed. Treasury materials (SB0353) refer to the framework and confirm the three-year horizon but do not provide quarterly progress metrics.
Key milestones include the October 30, 2025 announcements of the deal and the White House fact sheet outlining the 12 MMT in 2025 and 25 MMT annually through 2028, with the formal Treasury briefing published January 8, 2026. The stated completion condition—China purchasing no less than 25 MMT each year for three consecutive years—depends on ongoing exports and verification data that have not yet been publicly published for 2026. Reliability notes: the claim plates the official government briefings and press materials from Treasury and the White House; independent outlets have reported on the framework, but there is limited public, granular data on month-by-month shipments for 2026 to date.
Update · Feb 01, 2026, 06:37 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence from late 2025 shows China committed to 25 million metric tons annually, with initial deliveries and a three-year duration; reports noted an initial 12 million metric tons by end of 2025 and ongoing purchases into 2026, but full annual 25 million ton commitments for all three years have not been independently verified as completed as of February 2026.
Update · Feb 01, 2026, 04:12 PMin_progress
What the claim states: The article claims that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. The language appears in Treasury remarks dated January 8, 2026, as part of SB0353. There is no corroborating independent confirmation of binding purchases beyond this framing.
Progress evidence: The Treasury page presents the framework and the 25 MMT figure, but no public contract, procurement schedule, or yearly purchase data have been independently verified. Early media coverage in search results references the claim, yet none provides concrete milestones or enforceable commitments. Verification from official sources such as USDA/FAS or subsequent Treasury updates is lacking as of 2026-02-01.
Status and reliability note: The primary source is an official Treasury remarks page, which confirms the claim’s framing but not guaranteed execution. Given the absence of independent, milestone-based verification, the claim remains unproven and in_progress pending further corroboration.
Update · Feb 01, 2026, 02:19 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The article claims that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years starting in the framework’s effective period.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates a phased pledge related to U.S. soybean purchases. Reports in late 2025 described China agreeing to buy about 25 million metric tons annually as part of a broader deal (AP, Reuters coverage cited in late 2025 and early 2026).
By January 2026, Reuters reported China had purchased roughly 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, with a path to reach higher volumes by the end of February 2026, suggesting the 25 MMT annual target was not yet fulfilled for the period beginning in 2026.
Status of completion: As of February 1, 2026, the 25 MMT-per-year commitment had not been fulfilled for a full year; the reported purchases to date fell short of the annual target. The Treasury press materials from January 8, 2026 reference the framework, but independent outlets indicate progress toward the 25 MMT target is ongoing rather than complete.
Dates and milestones: The public narrative around the deal centers on an initial pledge of 25 MMT annually for three years, with a near-term milestone of achieving 12 MMT by late January 2026 and ramping toward 25 MMT in subsequent months (Reuters Jan 20, 2026; AP Oct 30, 2025).
Source reliability: The most relevant, timely disclosures come from high-quality outlets (Reuters, AP) and the U.S. Treasury press office. Reuters’ reporting provides concrete purchase figures and timing; AP aggregations reflect the stated framework. The Treasury page confirms the framework language but is less explicit about milestone execution to date; cross-referencing with independent coverage supports a cautious, in-progress assessment.
Update · Feb 01, 2026, 12:30 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China must buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of the framework and initial commitments emerged in late 2025, with reporting from multiple reputable outlets indicating China agreed to purchase 25 million metric tons each year for a three-year window (through 2028).
Independent summaries and analyses note an initial phase of purchases totaling around 12 million metric tons in late 2025, followed by ongoing annual commitments of at least 25 million metric tons as the framework progresses. Key milestones include the October 2025 media coverage and subsequent logistics reporting on ongoing purchases into early 2026.
Sources include AP News, CNBC, and Purdue Agricultural resources that tracked the deal and its claimed purchase volumes.
Update · Feb 01, 2026, 11:06 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, starting from the agreement date.
Progress evidence: Public sources indicate China resumed substantial purchases after the agreement, with initial actions including a 12 million metric ton tranche by the end of January 2026 and commitments to reach 25 million metric tons annually for the three-year period (AP News; CNBC reporting on the deal terms). The Treasury Department press materials accompanying the agreement corroborate a three-year window with annual commitments around 25 million metric tons. NBC/USDA data cited by outlets through December 2025 also framed 12 million metric tons in late 2025 and the annual 25 million target through 2028 (AP News; CNBC; NBC News analyses).
Completion status: As of 2026-02-01, the arrangement is active and being worked toward the three-year annual target. However, there is no evidence of full three-year completion yet, since the three-year period runs through 2028 and only the initial year’s progress has been publicly documented. The available reporting portrays a ramp-up phase rather than a finished milestone.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones include the agreement date (late October 2025), a 12 million metric ton initial purchase by early 2026, and a plan for China to buy at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. Treasury remarks on the program frame the commitment as lasting three years, with ongoing evaluations of progress in subsequent quarters (Treasury remarks, AP News coverage).
Source reliability note: Coverage comes from major outlets and official Treasury communications, including AP News and CNBC summaries of the deal, which themselves cite USDA data and public statements by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. While the framing is consistent across sources, early-stage progress should be interpreted cautiously given evolving trade dynamics and potential financial incentives to actors in both markets.
Update · Feb 01, 2026, 09:03 AMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, effectively starting with commitments arranged in late 2025. This pledge was publicized by U.S. officials and echoed in Treasury remarks on January 8, 2026 (SB0353).
Evidence of progress: Public reporting from late 2025 indicates China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years as part of an broader accord, with initial purchases and trade signals occurring in the October–December 2025 window. News coverage noted the 12 million metric tons in the near term and the plan for 25 million annually thereafter, and observers tracked actual shipments against these goals (AP, CNBC recaps).
Current status by 2026-01-31: While the framework’s terms were publicly announced and subsequent reporting suggested ramp-ups in soybean purchases, there is no independently verifiable confirmation that China had consistently met or surpassed the 25 million metric tons per year threshold for each of the three consecutive years within the period beginning with the arrangement. Reports describe ongoing purchases and targets, but concrete, year-by-year verification for the three-year commitment remains incomplete in public records as of late January 2026.
Dates and milestones: The cornerstone announcement appears in late October 2025, with continued discussion and partial purchases reported through December 2025. Treasury remarks in January 2026 reiterated the framework. Milestones to confirm would include verifiable annual USDA export data showing 25 million MT shipments to China for each of the three years, which public sources had not uniformly provided by January 31, 2026.
Source reliability note: Coverage from the U.S. Treasury (official press materials), AP, and major business outlets (CNBC) is used to gauge official commitments and market signals. Cross-checking with USDA export data and formal texts would strengthen verification. The claim’s framing relies on governmental announcements; ongoing market reporting should be monitored for precise fulfillment data.
Scheduled follow-up · Feb 01, 2026
Update · Feb 01, 2026, 04:09 AMin_progress
Brief restatement of the claim: A new trade framework obligates
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Progress evidence: Public reporting in late 2025 and January 2026 described China agreeing to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans each year for the following three years, suggesting a formal commitment as part of a broader negotiation (AP News, Jan 2026; Farmdoc Daily analysis, Nov 2025). Current status: As of January 31, 2026, the agreement is described as in effect or under implementation, with ongoing market monitoring and political messaging surrounding the commitment. There is no independently published, government-issued milestone checklist confirming binding enforcement beyond media and academic analyses. Dates and milestones: The agreement surfaced around late 2025; January 2026 reporting indicates a three-year annual target of 25 MMT, potentially covering 2026–2028. No definitive, public government document with quarterly milestones has been issued to verify enforcement, creating ambiguity about progress and completion conditions.
Update · Feb 01, 2026, 02:17 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence of progress shows China resumed purchases in late 2025 and public summaries indicated a 25 million metric ton annual target through 2028, with Reuters confirming a 12 million ton target earlier and the 25 MMT commitment thereafter. Status: The arrangement appears ongoing, with no public evidence of cancellation or completion by January 2026; multiple outlets describe the target as current and in effect. Key milestones include late-2025 talks, 2026 resumption of purchases, and the 2026–2028 annual 25 MMT commitment. Source reliability is reasonable, drawing from U.S. Treasury communications and independent outlets (Reuters, AP, AgWeb).
Update · Feb 01, 2026, 12:17 AMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
The Treasury release itself presents a speech, but independent reporting framed the assertion as part of a China-U.S. soybean deal with a three-year term at 25 MMT annually.
Public reporting in late 2025 and early 2026 framed the agreement as lasting three years with an annual 25 MMT target, starting in 2026.
Progress evidence: By January 2026, reporting indicated China had resumed U.S. soybean purchases and had fulfilled an initial 12 million metric ton target by early 2026, with further purchases planned for shipment through May 2026.
Reuters noted China met or was on track to meet a 12 MMT target by February 2026 and cited the White House claim of a 25 MMT annual commitment for three years. AP corroborated the 25 MMT figure as part of the announced deal, but described the immediate shipments as beginning with 12 MMT.
Current status as of 2026-01-31: The three-year 25 MMT annual obligation is publicly cited, but first-year progress shows 12 MMT achieved so far, not the full 25 MMT for the 2026 year.
Because the bulk of purchases for the first tranche were reported within the 2025–2026 window, the milestone remains in_progress until the full annual target is met for 2026 and each subsequent year.
Reliability note: The claim rests on statements attributed to Treasury officials and White House communications, corroborated by AP and Reuters. The Treasury press release appears as a speech transcript with political framing, requiring cross-checking with independent reporting for full context. Overall, the 25 MMT annual target is reported, but as of 2026-01-31 the evidence shows partial progress rather than completion.
Follow-up: 2026-12-31
Update · Jan 31, 2026, 10:09 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting around late 2025 framed this as a three-year commitment tied to a broader agreement, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying China would buy 25 million tons annually (AP, Reuters) and that initial purchases would total about 12 million tons in the near term (AP, Reuters). The Treasury remarks from January 2026 reiterate the 25 million-ton annual figure for three years, but they come from a speech rather than a formal treaty or binding contract (Treasury press remarks). Given the sources, the promise appears to be a politically salient commitment rather than a legally binding obligation with independently verifiable enforcement (AP, Reuters; Treasury remarks).
Update · Jan 31, 2026, 08:07 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years.
Evidence of progress: Reports indicate the framework was announced in late 2025, with China pledging substantial purchases (including an initial 12 million metric tons by end-2025 and 25 million metric tons annually thereafter) per Treasury/White House summaries cited by outlets.
Current status: As of early 2026, purchases resumed in late 2025 but public reporting shows actual volumes were below the 25 MMT annual target in the initial period. The three-year, 25 MMT per year obligation remains the stated goal, but independent confirmation of three consecutive years of compliance is not demonstrated in sources reviewed.
Milestones and dates: October 30, 2025 – Treasury Secretary Bessent announces China’s commitment to buy U.S. soybeans under the framework. December 2025 – reporting notes progress toward a 12 MMT interim target; 2026 targets are discussed but full-year compliance is not yet verified.
Source reliability and incentives: The principal corroboration comes from AP and CNBC reporting, anchored by the Treasury press page. Given framing around policy aims and incentives, the available sources treat the 25 MMT obligation as a goal rather than a proven, binding, multi-year fulfillment to date.
Follow-up note: A concrete determination should await full-year purchase data for three consecutive years; a focused check on 2026-02-28 would clarify whether the pace is on track toward the stated target.
Update · Jan 31, 2026, 06:33 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts that under a new trade framework
China must buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting since 2025 indicates an agreement to purchase 25 MMT annually through 2028, with China resuming purchases after prior disruptions. The available material suggests the framework exists and has begun implementation, but independent verification for each of the three years remains incomplete as of January 2026.
Update · Jan 31, 2026, 04:10 PMin_progress
Restatement of the claim: The article’s claim is that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates that after the framework was announced in late 2025, China resumed soybean purchases and pledged to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years. Initial milestones referenced include a 12 million metric ton buy by the end of 2025 and ongoing purchases in early 2026, with U.S. officials describing the 25 MMT figure as the three-year goal (AP, CNBC, White House/treasury statements).
Current status and milestones: As of January 2026, tangible purchases in the first year have been reported at lower levels (e.g., 12 MMT by the end of 2025 and roughly 2.9–3.0 MMT since October per USDA data cited by NBC/CNBC analyses), with later statements reiterating the three-year 25 MMT annual target. The completion condition—three consecutive years of at least 25 MMT each year—has not yet been met by the date in question, so the status is in_progress.
Dates and milestones: Key dates include the announced framework in late 2025 (leaders’ agreement), the December 2025 purchasing activity (12 MMT in late 2025), and ongoing 2026 activity discussed in January 2026 coverage. The January 8, 2026 Treasury remarks explicitly cite the 25 MMT annual target for a three-year window, but no independent three-year completion has occurred as of the current date.
Source reliability note: Coverage comes from high-quality outlets and official statements (AP, CNBC, and the U.S. Treasury remarks). While the Treasury quote reinforces the stated target, independent verification shows purchases in the low tens of millions for year one, not yet meeting the full 25 MMT annual threshold. Overall, sources are reputable, but the completion condition remains unmet at this date.
Update · Jan 31, 2026, 02:11 PMin_progress
Restatement of the claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The claim traces to remarks and a White House fact sheet circulated after late-2025 negotiations and reinforced by Treasury remarks in January 2026. Credible reporting has centered on a 25 MMT annual commitment beginning in 2026 and continuing through 2028.
Update · Jan 31, 2026, 12:27 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The article describes a new trade framework in which
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years, beginning with an initial delivery of 12 million metric tons by January. Evidence progress: Treasury and White House communications publicly framed the 25 million metric ton commitment, with January 8, 2026 remarks reiterating the framework; AP coverage notes the 25 million per year target as part of the agreement reached in late 2025. Available data since October 2025 show purchases have begun and are intended to ramp up toward the 25 million per year target, but early quarterly data indicate purchases have not yet reached the full annual goal. Reliability note: Treasurys’ and AP’s reporting provide credible, contemporaneous accounts of the framework and milestones, while market-tracking outlets corroborate ongoing progress and short-term gaps.
Update · Jan 31, 2026, 10:45 AMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article claims that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, effectively binding China to buy that amount each year.
Evidence of progress: Publicly released materials show that an agreement was announced in late 2025, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that China would purchase 25 million metric tons annually for three years, and that an initial tranche would begin with 12 million metric tons by early 2026 (AP coverage of the claim). The Treasury Department’s January 8, 2026 remarks also reference the 25 million metric tons per year framework as part of the administration’s trade stance.
Status of completion or ongoing status: As of January 31, 2026, the framework had been announced and was described as lasting three years, with an initial 12 million metric tons to be purchased by China soon after the agreement. There is no public evidence of full completion of three years yet, and the three-year completion condition remains in the future.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones include the October 2025/January 2026 public statements announcing 25 MMT annually for three years, and an initial 12 MMT purchase to be executed by China by the end of 2025 or early 2026. The official Treasury remarks (January 8, 2026) reiterate the three-year commitment. Source reliability: The AP report provides contemporaneous coverage of the claim with quotes from Treasury officials; the Treasury press remarks provide official confirmation of the framework. Both sources are high-quality, with AP widely regarded as a credible wire service and the Treasury as the primary government issuer of the policy.
Note on reliability and incentives: The claim stems from official U.S. government communications and is framed around a formal trade framework tied to political leadership and agricultural policy. Given the incentives of the U.S. administration to showcase a fiscal-trade agreement and to support
American farmers, cautious interpretation should monitor the actual purchasing volumes over the three-year window as reported by official sources over time.
Update · Jan 31, 2026, 09:06 AMin_progress
The claim asserts that a new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting in late 2025 framed this as a three-year commitment tied to a Trump-era trade framework, with Secretary Scott Bessent stating China would buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years. Initial reporting also indicated a starting tranche of 12 million metric tons to be purchased by early 2026. Overall, the claim rests on an announced target rather than a fully proven, ongoing execution as of January 2026.
Evidence of progress shows the core agreement existed and was publicized by late October 2025, with media attributing the 25 MMT annual target to China’s pledge under the deal. AP News summarized that China would buy 25 MMT annually for three years, beginning with a 12 MMT purchase in the near term, citing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. CNBC and NBC News analyses in December 2025 and early 2026 suggested China had resumed purchases but had not yet met the full 25 MMT annual target, noting actual shipments were significantly below that figure in the initial months. These reports indicate the trajectory toward the 25 MMT annual goal, but not full execution by January 2026.
Assessment of evidence for completion shows no confirmation that China has legally or practically locked in 25 MMT purchases for each of three years as of 2026-01-30. The AP account describes a three-year commitment, and subsequent trade coverage notes that only a subset of the target had materialized in late 2025 and early 2026. Given the three-year horizon and ongoing purchase activity, the milestone remains in progress rather than completed. No credible primary source confirms full, year-by-year fulfillment for all three years yet.
Key dates and milestones include the announced October 30, 2025 agreement pledging 25 MMT annually for three years, with an initial 12 MMT to be purchased by January 2026. Public reporting through AP on October 2025 and follow-up coverage through December 2025 and January 2026 provide the best available milestones, but actual shipment totals in early 2026 fell short of the 25 MMT annual pace, suggesting partial progress rather than completion. The reliability of sources centers on AP for the core claim; other outlets (CNBC, NBC/MSNBC iterations) offered corroboration with caveats about current purchase levels.
Reliability note: AP News is a widely respected source for breaking economic and policy reporting, though figures cited depend on Treasury and White House statements. Coverage from CNBC/NBC analyses provides market-context interpretation but also notes gaps between targets and actual purchases in the near term. Treasury press materials in early January 2026 appear to reflect the claim, but a direct, verifiable record of ongoing, year-by-year purchases sustaining 25 MMT annually for three years requires additional official data releases from USDA and Treasury beyond January 2026. Given these factors, the claim is best understood as a stated target with partial, not yet-confirmed, progress as of 2026-01-30.
Scheduled follow-up · Jan 31, 2026
Update · Jan 31, 2026, 04:44 AMin_progress
Restatement of the claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Late-October 2025 reporting quoted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying China had agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually as part of a leadership-level deal. Some coverage also described an initial 12 million-ton purchase by early 2026, with the 25 million-ton annual level to follow for three years.
Assessment of completion status: By January 2026 there is no widely verified public record confirming three consecutive years of 25 million metric tons per year. Media reports describe the agreement and milestones, but independent confirmation of year-by-year fulfillment remains unavailable.
Dates and milestones: The reported pathway included 12 million tons by end of 2025 or early 2026 and at least 25 million tons annually for the subsequent three years, through 2028, though concrete shipment totals have not been independently published.
Source reliability and incentives: The principal reference is an AP report summarizing a U.S. official’s statement; Treasury press materials and other outlets echoed similar language. Given incentives in U.S.–China trade talks, caution is warranted until official trade data or
Chinese customs records verify ongoing purchases. A follow-up should verify annual U.S. soybean export data and any Chinese procurement records when available.
Update · Jan 31, 2026, 03:15 AMin_progress
The claim restates that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Public reporting confirms an agreement was announced in late 2025, with China committing to buy 25 million metric tons annually as part of the deal (initial purchases to begin with 12 million metric tons by early 2026) (AP News, Oct 30, 2025; AP News, Jan 2026).
Evidence of progress shows the framework was publicly disclosed, and early purchases were specified (12 million MMT to be bought by the end of January 2026). However, as of 2026-01-30 there is no publicly verified data showing that China has begun or completed the full 25 million MMT annual purchases for the first year; the available reporting indicates a phased start rather than immediate full-year compliance (AP News, Jan 2026; AP News, Oct 2025).
The completion condition (three consecutive years at or above 25 MMT) is not met by the current date. The three-year window would run 2026–2028 if the agreement remains in force, but verification of year-by-year purchases for 2026, 2027, and 2028 remains pending in public records, with the strongest public signal being the initial 12 MMT start and the stated annual target (Illinois Farmdoc Daily, Nov 2025; AP News, Oct 2025).
Dates and milestones cited in reporting include the announced deal in late October 2025, the commitment to 25 MMT annually, and an initial 12 MMT to be purchased by January 2026. The reliability of sources is high for the factual claims (AP News is a widely respected outlet; Farmdoc Daily provides economic analysis and cites the deal specifics). The Treasury press materials surrounding the claim are inconsistent in presentation, so the primary corroboration rests with AP’s reporting on the deal terms (AP News, Oct 2025; AP News, Jan 2026).
Overall, there is a verifiable trade framework and a pledge to 25 MMT annually, with documented phased initiation (12 MMT by early 2026). But the formal requirement of three consecutive years at or above 25 MMT remains unfulfilled as of 2026-01-30, pending subsequent annual purchases to complete the three-year obligation (AP News, Oct 2025; AP News, Jan 2026).
Sources and reliability note: The Associated Press is the central, high-quality source confirming the 25 MMT commitment and the initial 12 MMT start. Supplementary economic analysis from Farmdoc Daily provides context on the deal’s structure. Government-backed materials appeared inconsistent in this instance, so the AP reporting is the primary basis for the current status.
Update · Jan 31, 2026, 01:16 AMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This is presented as a binding purchase commitment beginning immediately and continuing for three consecutive years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting in late 2025 indicated that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a China purchase agreement totaling 25 million metric tons per year for three years, with initial purchases slated to begin soon (roughly 12 million metric tons in the near term). Multiple outlets, including AP News, reported this claim as part of an announced deal under the administration at that time. This signals a formal framework had been described by late 2025, though follow-on payment and delivery milestones were not always itemized in every report.
Current status: As of January 2026, reporters and analysts noted that the pact remained in the early implementation phase. There is reporting that China had begun or intended to fulfill portions of the initial quantity, but there is no publicly verifiable, sustained three-year fulfillment record to confirm that the 25 million metric tons per year target has been consistently met for three consecutive years yet. The available coverage emphasizes the agreement’s existence and initial steps rather than a completed, multi-year track record.
Milestones and timelines: The core milestone is the annual 25 million metric tons commitment for three years starting from the agreement date in late 2025. Reported early steps included a first tranche (e.g., initial purchases around 12 million metric tons) and the broader annual goal for the following years. Concrete, verifiable yearly totals for 2026 and 2027, however, are not clearly established in the publicly available sources at this time.
Source reliability and incentives: Coverage draws on reputable outlets (AP News, CNBC, and related financial press), which reference statements by Treasury officials. While these outlets are considered credible, the specifics of enforceability, penalties for under-purchasing, and bilateral enforcement mechanisms are not uniformly detailed across sources. The incentives driving the claim appear to be political and diplomatic—as part of trade normalization and agricultural support—so the reliability of the stated obligation hinges on formal contract language and official ratification, which are not exhaustively documented in the current public record.
Update · Jan 30, 2026, 10:55 PMin_progress
Claim restated: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, beginning with a pledge announced in late 2025. Evidence of progress: outlets reported the initial agreement with a plan for China to buy 12 million metric tons in late 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028, implying a three-year horizon (AP 2025-10-30; Purdue extension analysis 2025-11-14).
Milestones and status: by early 2026, reporting indicated the deal had commenced but noted China’s purchases were subject to market conditions and may involve diversification toward other suppliers (USA Today 2026-01-27). Reliability note: sources include AP, academic analysis, and major outlets, reflecting a credible but evolving situation rather than a fixed, completed timetable.
What progress exists: the core commitment to 25 MMT annually was publicly stated and covered by multiple outlets, with an initial year and a three-year cadence outlined. What remains uncertain: the exact annual fulfillment, timing of shipments, and whether China adheres to the minimum amid market shifts and supplier diversification.
Reliability summary: AP News provides the initial pledge; Purdue analysis offers independent assessment of deal terms; other outlets highlight market dynamics affecting fulfillment. The reporting suggests credible progress but not definitive completion.
Follow-up context: given incentives and market volatility, ongoing verification should track annual U.S. soybean exports to China and any shifts in procurement through 2028.
Update · Jan 30, 2026, 08:38 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: The White House fact sheet from November 1, 2025, states China will purchase at least 12 million metric tons in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons per year in 2026, 2027, and 2028. Reuters, citing traders, reported that China had bought about 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by January 2026 to fulfill near-term targets under the same framework.
Current status: The three-year annual 25 MMT pledge has not yet been completed, as 2026 begins and deliveries for that year are ongoing. The first year’s target is in progress, with subsequent years tied to the same commitment.
Evidence reliability: The claim rests on a White House fact sheet (official government source) and corroborating reporting from Reuters. Other outlets have summarized the arrangement, but the central commitments originate from the White House document and subsequent market reporting.
Milestones and dates: November 1, 2025 — White House fact sheet confirms the 25 MMT annual commitment (and 12 MMT in late 2025). January 2026 — Reuters notes 12 MMT purchased in the near term under the framework, with the 2026–2028 annual target in effect.
Incentives note: The deal links agricultural exports to broader trade concessions, reflecting policy incentives to restore U.S. agricultural access and reduce friction with China. Follow-up monitoring will assess whether annual purchases reach the 25 MMT target in 2026–2028.
Update · Jan 30, 2026, 06:57 PMin_progress
Brief restatement of the claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress to date: Public statements and reporting confirm China and
the United States reached an agreement in late 2025–early 2026. AP reports that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with purchases beginning by January 2026 and lasting through 2028. Treasury press materials from Jan 8, 2026 also reference the framework and the 25 million metric ton commitment.
What is completed, what remains: The framework and the 25 million metric ton per year commitment appear to be established, but actual monthly/annual purchases in 2026 have not been independently verified as of Jan 30, 2026. Initial shipments or volumes would ramp up in early 2026, but concrete year-by-year totals for 2026 and beyond are not yet confirmed in primary sources. The completion condition (three consecutive years of at least 25 million) cannot be judged complete until 2028, and as of early 2026 the second and third years remain in the future.
Dates and milestones: The key milestone is the three-year commitment beginning in 2026 and running through 2028/2029 depending on framing; media coverage cites 12 million tons in late 2025 and 25 million annually through 2028. These sources collectively establish the existence of the framework and the three-year volume target, with ongoing verification required for yearly totals.
Reliability note: The most authoritative signals come from Treasury statements and AP/CNBC reporting, which cite official briefings and interviews. Given incentives around trade and farming, continued monitoring of actual trade data and official confirmations will be necessary to confirm sustained compliance.
Update · Jan 30, 2026, 04:20 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: Public reporting in late October 2025 described an agreement for China to buy 12 million metric tons in late 2025 and then 25 million metric tons annually for the following three years, beginning in 2026. By early 2026, reporting indicated China had begun fulfilling the 12 million-ton tranche and was positioned to continue toward the 25 MMT annual target, with the White House and Treasury discussions cited by outlets.
Current status: As of January 30, 2026, the 25 MMT per year portion of the commitment is not yet completed; the initial 12 MMT tranche has been executed or is underway, and the annual 25 MMT purchases are expected to run from 2026 through 2028 under the framework.
Milestones and dates: Key milestones include the October 2025 announcement of a three-year framework (12 MMT near term, 25 MMT annually for 2026–2028) and Reuters/AP reports in January 2026 confirming ongoing implementation and shipments toward the 25 MMT annual target.
Source reliability and incentives: The claim relies on reputable outlets (AP, Reuters) and official statements referenced by Treasury coverage. While incentives and political framing vary by outlet, the public record shows an ongoing procurement plan with a multi-year commitment.
Update · Jan 30, 2026, 02:23 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The article asserts a new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. It also implies the three-year commitment will be fulfilled each year at or above 25 MMT. The Treasury remarks and subsequent reporting present the 25 MMT figure as a formal pledge tied to a three-year period.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates an initial step of 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans to be purchased between late 2025 and January 2026, with the broader 25 MMT annual commitment described as enduring for three years (AP coverage quotes Scott Bessent on China agreeing to 25 MMT annually). Treasury materials corroborate that a framework was announced and described by officials in early 2026; the press release itself emphasizes the framework but does not show completed year-by-year shipment data.
Current status and milestones: As of 2026-01-30, there is public acknowledgment of the framework and its terms, including the claimed 25 MMT annual target, but concrete annual purchase data beyond the initial 12 MMT tranche have not been independently verified for 2026 or the subsequent two years. News outlets note the agreement and its stated duration, while government sources emphasize the policy framework rather than a detailed delivery ledger. Independent verification of year-by-year adherence remains limited.
Dates and milestones: The claim centers on a three-year covenant starting from the agreement date, with an initial 12 MMT allotment reported to occur by early 2026 and the full 25 MMT annual purchases to follow under the three-year term. Key milestones cited include the October–November 2025 announcements and the January 2026 statements casting the framework in motion. The absence of a publicly available tally for 2026 and 2027 purchases leaves completion status uncertain.
Reliability and incentives: The sources include the U.S. Treasury press materials and major outlets (AP, CNBC). AP’s reporting is the most explicit on the 25 MMT annual pledge, though it also notes the initial 12 MMT tranche; Treasury remarks frame the agreement but do not provide granular transaction data. Given policy claims can be influenced by political incentives and public messaging, cautious interpretation is warranted until verifiable shipment tallies for each year are published by authorities or corroborated by independent traders.
Follow-up note: If available, a concrete year-end purchase tally for 2026 and 2027 should be reviewed to determine whether China met or exceeded the 25 MMT annual covenant. A follow-up assessment is due on 2026-12-31, at which point the three-year commitment period would be nearing completion.
Update · Jan 30, 2026, 12:44 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article claim says
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years under a new trade framework. Available reporting suggests an agreement or framework where China would buy 25 MMT annually, with early milestones indicating volumes at 12 MMT in the near term and an intended path to 25 MMT annually through 2028. There is no independently verified, enforceable completion of three consecutive 25 MMT years as of January 2026.
Evidence of progress: Public statements from late 2025 indicate China agreed to 12 MMT in the current season and at least 25 MMT annually through 2028, signaling progress toward the claimed framework. U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, framed the deal as restoring large-scale purchases by China.
Completion status: The promised annual purchases have not been independently confirmed as completed for three consecutive years by January 2026. Reporting indicates ongoing implementation and transition phases rather than a finished three-year obligation fulfilled.
Key dates and milestones: 2025-10-30: reports of 12 MMT in the near term and 25 MMT annually through 2028; 2025-12-09: media coverage reiterating the 25 MMT commitment; 2026-01-08: Treasury press materials referencing the framework.
Reliability note: Coverage comes from major outlets (AP, Reuters, CNBC) and Treasury communications, but the situation hinges on evolving bilateral arrangements and enforcement details, warranting continued monitoring.
Update · Jan 30, 2026, 11:08 AMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
What evidence exists of progress: Late-2025 reporting described an agreement in which China would purchase 25 million metric tons annually through 2028, with an initial 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025 and continued annual purchases thereafter (AP, AgWeb, FarmDocDaily). Officials including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent framed the arrangement as restoring substantial U.S. agricultural trade with China (AP, CNBC, Yahoo Finance). The Treasury site carried remarks referencing the framework in early 2026, indicating ongoing implementation rather than final completion.
Completion status: As of 2026-01-30 there is no verified completion of the three-year 25 MMT-per-year obligation. Public sources describe the framework and targets, but do not confirm that all three years have elapsed with full compliance or that actual shipments meet the 25 MMT target every year.
Reliability and milestones: Reported milestones center on the 25 MMT annual target through 2028 and an initial year of 12 MMT in 2025, with independent coverage corroborating the commitment. Given the political framing in many outlets, verification hinges on official shipment data for 2026–2028; no such data are publicly published in the sources reviewed. Follow-up will be most informative after a full year of 2026 purchases and subsequent years.
Update · Jan 30, 2026, 09:12 AMin_progress
Claim: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence of progress is limited to official statements; independent, year-by-year data confirming shipments reaching 25 million metric tons annually is not publicly verified as of early 2026. The Treasury press release and remarks anchor the claim but do not provide corroborating data from customs or
Chinese authorities. The completion window (three consecutive years) remains unconfirmed due to lack of verifiable milestones. Given the reliance on initial pledges and promotional statements, the status should be treated as in_progress pending independent trade data confirmation.
Update · Jan 30, 2026, 04:38 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article claimed that under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of the framework and promise: a White House fact sheet from November 2025 and subsequent reporting describe China agreeing to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028, with an initial 12 million metric tons in late 2025, suggesting a three-year annual commitment. Additional coverage from AP News (Oct 2025) cites Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that China had agreed to the 25 MMT annual level as part of a leaders’ agreement. Status as of 2026-01-29: there is no independently verifiable delivery data confirming that purchases have begun or progressed for 2026, nor confirmation that the three-year annual target has been consistently met. Reliability note: sources include official statements and reputable outlets (White House, AP); however, the claim depends on government messaging and media interpretation without a contemporaneous, verifiable trade-flow record.
Update · Jan 30, 2026, 02:36 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts a new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: Public reporting in late October 2025 attributed Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with saying China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually, tying it to a broader trade framework. By January 2026, coverage from Reuters and other outlets indicated China had resumed purchases and had reached about 12 million metric tons in the prior months, with the White House signaling the 25 million-ton annual pledge for the three-year period beginning in 2026. The Treasury remarks from January 8, 2026 reference the framework and the 25 million-ton figure as part of the negotiated outcome.
Current status: As of late January 2026, China has not publicly completed the full three-year commitment of 25 million metric tons per year. Reported progress shows a near-term milestone of about 12 million metric tons purchased by January–February 2026, with ongoing purchases expected to sustain the annual pace. The three-year completion condition remains contingent on continued execution through 2026–2028.
Reliability note: The claim is anchored in U.S. government communications and reputable wire services (AP, Reuters). Given the evolving nature of trade commitments, ongoing official updates and shipment data will be needed to confirm full compliance over the three-year window.
Update · Jan 30, 2026, 12:58 AMin_progress
What the claim states: Under a new trade framework,
China would buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: late‑2025 reporting indicated China agreed to 25 million tonnes annually as part of a leaders’ agreement, with an initial tranche of about 12 million tonnes to be purchased by January 2026 and the 25 million-tonne annual target through 2028. Treasury communications in January 2026 echoed the 25 million metric ton per year commitment for the three-year period. Multiple reputable outlets (AP, CNBC, US News, AgWeb) framed the deal as an active framework rather than a completed action.
Update · Jan 29, 2026, 11:09 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting surrounding the framework indicates an explicit commitment for China to buy 25 million metric tons annually, with initial shipments of around 12 million metric tons in the near term and the three-year horizon running through 2028. The AP report (Oct 30, 2025) quotes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirming the 25 million metric ton annual commitment for three years, and subsequent coverage reaffirmed that structure while noting the start of purchases in late 2025. Treasury materials from January 2026 reiterate the framework and its stated terms.
Current completion status: There is no formal declaration that the three-year commitment has completed. Given the three-year horizon, the timeline would run from late 2025 through late 2028; as of January 2026, the arrangement appears to be in progress, with ongoing purchases and no published end-date or cancellation of the framework. Independent analyses and media reports treat the deal as an ongoing framework rather than a completed transaction.
Milestones and dates: Key milestones cited include an October 2025 statement of the 25 million metric tons per year for three years, and a January 2026 Treasury remarks document that repeats the framework. The most concrete near-term milestone reported was China’s initial purchase of about 12 million metric tons to begin the arrangement, followed by the annual 25 million metric ton target. The reliability of sources ranges from AP reporting to official Treasury statements, both providing contemporaneous verification of the framework and its scope.
Source reliability and incentives: Primary sources include the U.S. Treasury press materials (SB0353, January 8, 2026) and AP reporting, which are high-quality and contemporaneous. The claim aligns with official U.S. framing of the deal and with contemporaneous coverage suggesting China agreed to the 25 million metric ton annual target for three years, though progress data (monthly or quarterly purchases) is not fully consolidated in a single source. Overall, reporting indicates the framework exists and is being implemented, with no clear evidence of cancellation or completion as of early 2026.
Update · Jan 29, 2026, 08:33 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting ties this framework to late-2025 announcements, which described an initial 12 million metric tons for the near term and at least 25 million metric tons per year starting in 2026 through 2028. This creates a three-year annual target beginning in 2026 rather than an immediate, one-time sale.
Update · Jan 29, 2026, 07:03 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Credible reporting in late 2025 signaled that China had agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with an initial 12 million metric tons expected in the 2025–2026 season followed by the annual 25 million figure through 2028. Progress evidence includes public statements from Treasury officials and contemporaneous market analysis showing the framework and its intended annual volume; however, there is no publicly posted binding contract or completion ledger publicly confirming full execution for all three years.
Update · Jan 29, 2026, 04:26 PMin_progress
What the claim states: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The framework’s completion condition is that, for three consecutive years, China buys no less than 25 million metric tons each year. The article and cited remarks tie this promise to a three-year period beginning with an agreement reached in late 2025.
Evidence of progress: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly described China’s commitment to buy 25 million metric tons annually as part of an agreement reached by its leaders in October 2025, with an initial purchase tranche of 12 million metric tons by January 2026. The Treasury remarks (Jan 8, 2026) frame the commitment as a framework with a three-year duration, and AP summarized the deal as lasting three years with a start-up tranche.
Current status: As of late January 2026, the formal commitment to purchase 25 MMT annually for three years is publicly stated, and an initial 12 MMT purchase was planned to begin by January 2026. There is publicly available reporting on the agreement and the promised milestones, but clear, verifiable data confirming 25 MMT purchases in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028 has not been independently verified in the sources consulted.
Milestones and timelines: Key milestones include the October 2025 agreement announcement that China would buy 25 MMT annually, the initial 12 MMT tranche slated for January 2026, and the three-year duration of the commitment. No final completion date is given beyond the three-year horizon. The available reporting suggests progress toward the milestone, with ongoing vigilance over actual quarterly purchase volumes.
Reliability notes: The core claim originates from Treasury statements and reputable reporting (AP coverage of the Bessent remark, and Treasury remarks on Jan 8, 2026). While these sources are credible, independent verification of year-by-year purchase totals beyond the initial tranche is limited in the immediate post-announcement period. Overall, sources cited present a credible, if still evolving, status toward the promised framework.
Update · Jan 29, 2026, 02:31 PMin_progress
Claim restated: A new trade framework with
China obligates China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The commitment covers 2026 through 2028, with an initial 12 million metric tons planned for late 2025 to start the arrangement (White House fact sheet). Public reporting corroborates the commitment and its three-year cadence (WH, AP).
Update · Jan 29, 2026, 12:33 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This pledge was presented as a three-year commitment tied to a broader agreement with
Chinese leadership, with initial deliveries slated to begin promptly and annual purchases to reach 25 million metric tons each year for the following two years.
Evidence of progress: Public statements indicate China agreed to a 25 million metric ton annual target, with initial shipments (about 12 million metric tons) expected to occur between late 2025 and January 2026. Reporting from AP confirms the 25 million metric tons per year framework and notes the three-year duration, citing Treasury Secretary remarks. Treasury remarks posted Jan 8, 2026 explicitly reference the 25 million MT annual purchases over three years.
Current status: As of late January 2026, multiple outlets reported that China had agreed to the 25 MMT annual target and had begun or planned an initial 12 MMT tranche, but there is no public record of the three-year target being completed or fully fulfilled for any year beyond the initiation period. Evaluations from industry outlets in November–December 2025 describe the agreement and its expected timeline, but do not show completion of three full years.
Dates and milestones: The Treasury remarks were dated January 8, 2026, signaling official endorsement of the framework. AP coverage (late 2025–early 2026) noted China’s agreement to purchase 25 MMT annually over the following three years and an initial 12 MMT window to start by January 2026. Independent analysis (e.g., AgWeb, FarmDoc Daily) reiterates the three-year annual 25 MMT target, occurring after an initial 12 MMT year. No milestone confirms year-by-year fulfillment beyond the start window.
Source reliability note: The assessment relies on a mix of high-quality outlets (AP News, CNBC, AgWeb, FarmDoc Daily) and the U.S. Treasury press materials. AP is a widely respected wire service for international economics and policy; Treasury communications provide official framing. Where outlets discuss interpretations or forecasts, they are clearly labeled as such and cross-checked against the Treasury remarks.
Conclusion: The claim is still in the in_progress phase. The framework appears to have been announced and partially initiated (including an initial 12 MMT window), but three full years of 25 MMT annual purchases have not yet been completed by the current date.
Update · Jan 29, 2026, 10:42 AMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The claim hinges on a deal described as establishing annual 25 MMT soybean purchases in 2026, 2027, and 2028, with an initial allocation of 12 MMT in late 2025. This framing presents a three-year, floor-based commitment rather than a one-time shipment target.
Progress evidence: Independent reporting and official material published in late 2025 and early 2026 corroborate the core numeric commitment. A White House fact sheet (Nov 2025) explicitly states that China will purchase at least 25 MMT in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028. AP coverage (Oct 2025) also reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced China would begin with 12 MMT in the final months of 2025 and then 25 MMT annually for the following three years. These sources establish both the initial tranche and the multi-year floor.
Current status as of 2026-01-29: The arrangement appears to be in force for the 2026–2028 period, with the 25 MMT annual target codified by official communications. However, the first year’s delivery is not yet complete by late January 2026, and progress depends on China’s ongoing purchases and any implementation details negotiated between administrations. The evidence indicates a formal commitment, not a completed three-year tally, at this point.
Milestones and dates: Key milestones include (a) October–November 2025 reporting that China would purchase 12 MMT in late 2025 and at least 25 MMT annually in 2026–2028, (b) official White House communication outlining the 25 MMT per year for 2026–2028, and (c) early 2026 acknowledgment that the agreement is in place and operative for the 2026–2028 window. The available materials do not show a finalized, year-end tally for 2025 beyond the initial 12 MMT tranche, nor a published, retroactive verification of 2026 shipments to date.
Update · Jan 29, 2026, 08:49 AMin_progress
What the claim states: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This aligns with a contemporaneous White House fact sheet outlining
Chinese commitments to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in 2026, 2027, and 2028. Independent reporting later summarized that China had agreed to these annual volumes as part of a broader economic-trade deal (e.g., AP and CNBC coverage).
Update · Jan 29, 2026, 04:31 AMin_progress
Claim restated: The article claims that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting surrounding late-2025 disclosures indicates an agreement for 25 MMT per year with an initial ramp to start immediately and continue through the three-year term. Progress appears to be moving toward that target, but independent verification of year-by-year fulfillment remains incomplete. The completion condition is thus not yet met as of early 2026.
Update · Jan 29, 2026, 02:45 AMin_progress
The claim asserts that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Public reporting in late 2025 and early 2026 described an agreement committing 25 million metric tons per year for that period, with a phased 12 million tons in 2025 and at least 25 million annually thereafter, but the binding nature and exact implementation details remain unclear. Evidence of progress includes media accounts and Treasury statements acknowledging the framework and its targets, yet there is limited official, independently verifiable purchase data for each year to confirm full fulfillment. Overall, the policy pledge remains credible but unproven in terms of concrete, verifiable deliveries to date.
Update · Jan 29, 2026, 12:56 AMin_progress
The claim asserts that under a new trade framework,
China will buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public sources tie the commitment to a late-2025/early-2026 truce and subsequent statements by U.S. officials, with Reuters noting China had pledged to purchase 25 million metric tons annually for three years starting in 2026. The U.S. Treasury speech on January 8, 2026 explicitly stated this 25 MMT-per-year framework as part of the agreement with China.
Evidence of progress shows concrete purchases underway in early 2026. Reuters reported that by January 20, 2026, China had purchased about 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, meeting a 12-million-ton target by the end of February and signaling resumed U.S. soybean trade after the late-October truce. AP’s coverage echoes that 25 million metric tons annually is the stated goal, while noting current shipments fall short of a three-year average and that purchases will need to be sustained to reach the promised level.
Regarding completion status, the three-year commitment has not yet elapsed as of late January 2026, so the target remains in progress. The current shipments (approximately 12 MMT achieved early in the period) are a partial step toward the 25 MMT annual target, and observers caution that volumes depend on price competitiveness and the broader political-economic environment. No independent verification shows the full 25 MMT-per-year target has been consistently met for 2026, 2027, and 2028.
Update · Jan 28, 2026, 10:49 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: Public sources corroborate the figure of 25 million metric tons annually and a three-year horizon, with initial purchase tonnage (12 MMT) outlined in near-term reporting and the three-year frame echoed in Treasury remarks in January 2026.
Current status vs. completion: As of 2026-01-28, the commitment is active but not shown as completed. The framework appears in early implementation, with no public ledger confirming full fulfillment for each year to date.
Milestones and reliability: The cited milestones include an initial 12 MMT purchase window and the 25 MMT annual floor over three years. The most reliable signals come from Treasury remarks and AP reporting; independent verification of year-by-year fulfillment remains limited.
Source reliability note: The key sources are U.S. Treasury remarks/press material and AP coverage, both relying on official statements. While AP is reputable, bilateral trade specifics may be opaque, so ongoing verification is needed.
Follow-up: Monitor Treasury updates and independent market analyses in 2026–2028 for year-by-year fulfillment data.
Update · Jan 28, 2026, 08:34 PMin_progress
What the claim states: A new trade framework obligates
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. The claim traces to announcements in late 2025 that China would purchase 25 MMT per year through 2028.
Evidence of progress: Reports from October 2025 described China agreeing to the 25 MMT annual target, with initial shipments in late 2025 and ongoing commitments through 2028. By January 2026, coverage noted continued purchases but also rising imports of
Brazilian soybeans when pricing favored
South American cargoes.
Current status: There is a formal pledge for 25 MMT annually through 2028, but actual purchases in early 2026 show a mix of U.S. shipments and non-U.S. imports, indicating implementation variability driven by market incentives.
Milestones and dates: Announcement around Oct 2025; first shipments under the framework in late 2025; ongoing reporting in Jan 2026; completion would require 2026–2028 each meeting or exceeding 25 MMT.
Source reliability note: Coverage from AP News and USA TODAY corroborates the framework and its early execution, while market-analysis outlets describe how price and supply dynamics affect real-world purchases. This yields a plausible, but not uniformly binding, implementation picture.
Update · Jan 28, 2026, 06:44 PMin_progress
Claim restated: A new trade framework allegedly obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: A Treasury remarks page (Jan 8, 2026) describes a framework and repeats the 25 million metric tons per year figure, but there is a lack of independent corroboration from other reputable sources or official trade instruments.
Status of completion: No public documentation confirms a binding contract or enforceable three-year obligation, and no credible third-party reporting has verified the volumes or terms beyond the Treasury remarks.
Dates and milestones: The claimed three-year window would run 2026–2029, yet no milestone dates or subsequent purchase data have been publicly reported.
Source reliability and caveats: The central claim rests on a Treasury remarks page, which is not equivalent to a formally ratified treaty or contract; independent verification from major outlets or official channels remains absent. The claim should be treated cautiously pending corroboration.
Update · Jan 28, 2026, 04:14 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under the new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Movement toward that framework has been publicly acknowledged by U.S. officials, with initial steps described as starting purchases and a three-year commitment. As of late January 2026, there is public acknowledgment of the agreement, but confirmed, sustained annual purchases of 25 million metric tons for all three years have not yet been independently verified for every year of the period.
Evidence of progress exists in official and high-profile statements: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the 25 million metric ton annual commitment as part of the framework during January 2026 remarks, and outlets reported the agreement reaching China’s leaders in late 2025 (including an initial 12 million ton tranche in 2025 and the annual 25 million ton target for following years). This corpus of reporting indicates the framework is in place and being implemented, not merely proposed. Independent verification of year-by-year purchases remains limited and contingent on subsequent trade data and disclosures by China and U.S. exporters.
Current status suggests the promise is not yet completed: the core three-year, 25 MMT per year commitment is publicized, but there is no publicly available, audited evidence confirming that three consecutive years of at-least-25 MMT purchases have occurred by late January 2026. Analysts and trade coverage from outlets describe the agreement and its intended cadence, yet actual annual totals for 2026 and 2027 require separate confirmation through trade data releases. Therefore, the claim remains in-progress rather than completed.
Dates and milestones noted in coverage include: late 2025 agreement announcements, an initial 12 MMT tranche to be purchased by January 2026, and the stated goal of 25 MMT annually for the subsequent three years. The Treasury press materials frame the arrangement as active, with ongoing implementation expected, but do not provide a dated, certified completion milestone beyond the three-year horizon. Milestones rely on future shipments and quarterly/monthly trade data to verify ongoing compliance.
Reliability note: The core claim is based on official Treasury remarks and contemporaneous reporting from reputable outlets. Coverage corroborates the framework and intent, though independent verification of continuous, year-by-year purchases remains pending. Read with caution, the reporting aligns with stated incentives of diplomatic and agricultural policy, but remains contingent on future data.
Update · Jan 28, 2026, 02:22 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: Reports indicate a 25 MMT annual purchase commitment for three years, with an initial 12 MMT tranche due by January 2026, and Treasury remarks confirming the three-year horizon. Status as of 2026-01-28: framework announced and underway, not yet completed, with the first tranche already discussed and ongoing negotiations influencing exact delivery timelines. Reliability: Coverage from AP News and Treasury communications supports the existence of the framework and its three-year term, though execution details may evolve with market conditions.
Update · Jan 28, 2026, 12:23 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting in late 2025 described China agreeing to a 25 million metric ton annual purchase level, with initial volumes anticipated by early 2026 and continued allocations through 2028 under the deal outlines reported by AP News, AgWeb, and FarmDocDaily.
Current status: As of 2026-01-28, there is no widely corroborated, independently verifiable government document confirming full execution or formal enforcement of the three-year 25 MMT annual commitment beyond public statements and secondary analyses. The Treasury page cited in the prompt appears inconsistent or non-standard in presentation, complicating verification.
Milestones and reliability: Reported milestones rely on statements from high-level officials and media interpretation rather than a transparent, public, binding treaty or contract. Given inconsistent sourcing and lack of an accessible official framework text, the status remains uncertain and best described as ongoing implementation.
Source reliability note: Coverage from AP News, AgWeb, and FarmDocDaily is based on policy briefings and official statements but varies in whether it reflects a formal treaty, executive action, or market expectation. The Treasury page linked in the prompt does not provide a clearly verifiable primary document confirming the three-year obligation.
Conclusion: Current public reporting points to an intended three-year 25 MMT framework, but independent, verifiable confirmation is lacking as of the date provided; the claim remains in_progress until formal completion or formal withdrawal is confirmed.
Update · Jan 28, 2026, 10:43 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. Public reporting indicates a three-year commitment with an initial ramp, including a first tranche of purchases in late 2025 and an ongoing annual target of 25 MMT, subject to the agreement’s term. The sources describe the arrangement as an agreement reached by
Chinese and U.S. leaders, with Treasury Secretary statements anchoring the numbers. As of late January 2026, there is no independent verification of three full years of 25 MMT purchases completed, only the stated framework and initial purchases already made or scheduled.
Update · Jan 28, 2026, 08:26 AMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence to date shows an agreement was reached in late 2025, with China committing to 25 million metric tons annually and an initial delivery period starting in late 2025.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly affirmed the 25 MMT/year commitment, and multiple outlets reported the three-year duration of the deal. Independent analyses noted that the arrangement included an initial purchase tranche (about 12 million MT by the end of 2025) and a framework targeting 25 MMT annually through 2028.
As of late January 2026, observers note the deal is in the implementation phase, with ongoing purchases but no formal conclusion confirming completion of the three-year target.
Key milestones documented include the December 2025-to-October 2025 sequence of purchases and the official January 2026 reiteration by Treasury, suggesting continued adherence to the framework through 2028.
Reliability notes: coverage from AP News, CNBC, AgWeb, FarmDoc, and the Treasury press release provides contemporaneous, cross-partisan reporting; coverage consistently describes the agreement and its three-year horizon, though precise quarterly totals vary by report.
Scheduled follow-up · Jan 28, 2026
Update · Jan 28, 2026, 04:24 AMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting from 2025–2026 indicates China agreed to a framework including 12 million metric tons in 2025 and a minimum of 25 million tons annually for the following three years, as described by AP News and other outlets; Treasury remarks in January 2026 also reference the 25 million-ton commitment.
Current status and milestones: There is no independently verified binding contract publicly disclosed; the 25 MMT per year target is described in statements and reporting rather than documented delivery records through January 2026. Reported milestones include 12 MMT in 2025 and the subsequent 25 MMT annual target through 2028.
Reliability of sources: AP News, CNBC, and FarmDoc Daily provide contemporaneous coverage and analysis; the Treasury page contains remarks rather than a standalone treaty, limiting verifiable enforcement details as of early 2026.
Update · Jan 28, 2026, 02:25 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. It implies a binding, three-year, 25 million ton-per-year commitment starting with purchases beginning promptly after the agreement.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates the agreement framework included a pledge for China to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025 or early 2026, with a separate stated target of 25 million metric tons annually in subsequent years. Multiple outlets (AP, Reuters) cited Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks announcing 12 million tons for the current season and the longer-term 25 million-ton annual target through 2028, with initial purchases commencing around late 2025 or early 2026.
Status of completion: By early 2026, reports suggested that China had begun purchasing soybeans under the broader deal, but the 25 million-ton-per-year obligation for three consecutive years was not publicly evidenced as fully completed or verifiably locked in for all three years at that time. Analysts and coverage framed the arrangement as ongoing, with milestones and volumes reported incrementally rather than a single finish date.
Source reliability and caveats: Coverage from AP and Reuters provides named officials and dates for the pledges and initial purchases, lending credibility to the progress narrative, though the exact contractual enforceability and long-run compliance remain less transparent in public records. Given competing narratives and the political context of the talks, caution is warranted in treating the 25 million-ton annual target as a fully secured, time-bound obligation without formal, verifiable documentation beyond public remarks.
Update · Jan 28, 2026, 01:02 AMin_progress
Restated claim and framework: The claim asserts a new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years (2026–2028). Public materials describe a framework with 25 MMT annually for 2026–2028, plus an initial interim purchase of 12 MMT in late 2025. White House communications and Treasury remarks frame the commitment as a three-year, 25 MMT-per-year arrangement, with initial steps already reported.
Evidence of progress and milestones: White House fact sheets from November 2025 state that China would buy at least 12 MMT by the end of 2025 and at least 25 MMT annually in 2026–2028. Media reports in late 2025 and early 2026 corroborate ongoing implementation, including a December 2025 notice of 12 MMT purchases. Public remarks in January 2026 reiterate the 25 MMT annual commitment as part of the framework, though independent, year-by-year data remains limited in the sources reviewed.
Current status: The policy framework and 25 MMT annual target for 2026–2028 are publicly stated, with initial 2025 purchases documented. Independent verification of 2026 purchases beyond government statements is not clearly established in the sources consulted. The completion condition—annual purchases of at least 25 MMT for three consecutive years—has not yet been independently confirmed as completed.
Reliability note: The most authoritative claims derive from White House fact sheets, Treasury remarks, and major outlets (AP, CNBC). While these sources consistently describe the commitment, they rely on policy announcements and reported purchases rather than an independent, verifiable contract for every year.
Update · Jan 28, 2026, 12:11 AMin_progress
The claim asserts that
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years under a new trade framework. Public reporting in late 2025 described a three-year commitment of 25 MMT per year, beginning after talks between leaders, with initial clarifications about 12 MMT in late 2025/early 2026. By January 2026, China resumed U.S. soybean purchases and hit a 12 MMT target for the near term, while the broader 25 MMT annual target for subsequent years remained cited but not independently verified as completed. Multiple outlets note that while the framework exists, sustained annual purchases at or above 25 MMT per year have not been publicly confirmed for all three future years, leaving the completion condition uncertain. Overall, progress toward the target is being made, but the three-year completion condition has not been conclusively fulfilled to date.
Completion due · Jan 28, 2026
Update · Jan 27, 2026, 09:00 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: Public reporting in late 2025 attributed an agreement to China to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with initial deliveries referenced (e.g., 12 MMT in the first period) and annual targets thereafter (AP News, 2025-10-30; AGWeb, 2025-11-03; farmdocdaily, 2025-11-17).
Completion status: As of 2026-01-27, there is no independently verifiable official rollout confirming consistent full-year purchases meeting the 25 MMT target for three consecutive years; no definitive enforcement or audited receipts have been publicly released by government or
Chinese authorities.
Milestones and dates: The core milestone is the three-year annual purchase at 25 MMT, purportedly beginning after the late-2025 agreement. Reports note variations in initial volumes and subsequent annual targets, but primary government documentation confirming a fixed, enforceable schedule is lacking.
Source reliability note: The claim originates from Treasury statements replicated by mainstream outlets; however, independent verification from official records or China’s confirmations appears limited, so interpretation should be cautious given potential political framing and incentives.
Follow-up: 2028-12-31
Update · Jan 27, 2026, 07:03 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, beginning with an annual minimum of 25 MMT each year.
Progress evidence: Public reporting from late 2025 indicates an agreement in which China would buy 12 million metric tons in 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually in the subsequent three years (2026–2028). News outlets such as AP and CNBC reported the 25 MMT figure, with Treasury Secretary statements framing the arrangement as reopening and sustaining sizable U.S. soybean purchases.
Current status: As of early 2026, there is reporting that the framework envisions 25 MMT per year for 2026–2028, but concrete, verified shipments centered on actual completed purchases for 2026–2028 have not been independently confirmed in primary data releases. The completion condition—three consecutive years with at least 25 MMT each year—has not yet been verified as completed.
Reliability notes: Sources include AP, CNBC, and industry analysis; they reflect official framing and projected terms, but actual bilateral purchases can hinge on negotiations, weather, and market conditions. Corroboration with official Treasury data and China trade statistics would strengthen verification. Overall, the reporting points to an ongoing framework rather than a completed delivery milestone.
Update · Jan 27, 2026, 04:19 PMin_progress
What the claim states: A trade framework would require
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. This framing appears in public remarks tied to a U.S. Treasury communication, and is echoed in subsequent reporting on a China-U.S. soybean deal.
What evidence progress exists: Public reporting shows an initial tranche of purchases and a formal commitment aligning with the 25 million metric tons annually for a three-year period, with an upfront starting amount of 12 million tons to be purchased by January 2026 and the higher level envisioned for the following years. The framework and numbers were publicly discussed in late 2025, and referenced in January 2026 Treasury remarks.
Completed vs. in-progress: The high-level agreement and the 25 MMT annual target have been announced and are being implemented over the three-year window. As of late January 2026, the first-year purchase is underway or planned to be completed, but the full three-year completion (i.e., all three years meeting or exceeding 25 MMT) remains in-progress and contingent on ongoing purchases and implementation.
Dates and milestones: The initial 12 MMT tranche is expected by January 2026, with 25 MMT per year slated for the subsequent two years (through 2028). Public documentation from the Treasury press and independent analyses cite a three-year horizon for the 25 MMT annual target.
Reliability of sources and incentives: Reports from AP (Oct 2025) and Treasury remarks (Jan 2026) corroborate the core claim and timeline. Independent analyses note the incentive structure for U.S. farmers and broader political signaling around trade, while maintaining skepticism about how much of the stated commitments are firm-year-to-year guarantees vs. negotiated targets. Overall, sources are high-quality and consistent on the existence of the framework and the three-year cycle, though exact annual fulfillment depends on ongoing enforcement and market conditions.
Update · Jan 27, 2026, 02:20 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting confirms an agreement tied to the framework reportedly commits China to 25 million metric tons per year for three years, with an initial step of substantial purchases beginning late in 2025 (12 million tons by the end of January as part of the phase-in). AP describes the arrangement as lasting three years, with Secretary Bessent noting the 25 million-ton figure in a late-2025 interview. Coverage from CNBC and NBC analyses likewise frame the deal as a three-year commitment beginning in late 2025, though actual monthly progress has fallen short of the long-term goal in the early months of the period.
Evidence of progress includes China resuming purchases after a boycott and agreeing to a phased approach that reaches the 25 million-ton annual level, starting from late 2025 and continuing through 2028. However, tracking through December 2025 shows China had bought considerably less than the 25 million metric tons in the initial months, with reports noting lower-than-target shipments and a continued gap to the stated annual goal. The discrepancy between the stated framework and real-time import volumes suggests the promise is being pursued but not yet fully realized in practice.
As of 2026-01-27, there is no definitive public signal of formal cancellation or completion of the three-year framework. The 25 million-ton-per-year target remains the stated objective, and the agreement is described as spanning three years, implying continued implementation or revisions through 2028. The available reporting emphasizes progress toward the target, but cautions that actual purchases in the period have not yet matched the full goal.
Reliability note: coverage from AP and CNBC is high-quality and widely cited, though interpretations vary regarding pace and near-term compliance. The Treasury press release embedded in the source materials reiterates the 25 million-ton figure in the context of the framework, but publicly verifiable tracking shows a gap between target and actual purchases in the initial months of the agreement. Given limited visibility into ongoing procurement data, the evaluation considers the claim as in_progress rather than complete, with continued monitoring needed for the 2026–2028 window.
Update · Jan 27, 2026, 12:17 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years (2026–2028).
Evidence of progress: Public reports indicate China resumed U.S. soybean purchases after late-2025 talks, with an initial pledge to buy about 12 million metric tons by early 2026 and a commitment to 25 million metric tons annually in 2026–2028. AP coverage from October 2025 and a White House fact sheet framed the 25 MMT per year as part of the deal. Reuters and
Bloomberg reported in January 2026 that China had met the initial 12 MMT target and that the broader 25 MMT annual pledge remained in effect for the 2026–2028 period.
Status of completion: As of January 2026, the three-year completion window has just begun. While the initial 12 MMT milestone was reported as achieved and the 25 MMT annual commitment is stated in official materials, three full years have not elapsed yet, so the completion condition remains in progress.
Milestones and dates: October 2025–November 2025: statements and White House fact sheet outlining the 12 MMT in late 2025 and 25 MMT annually in 2026–2028. January 2026: reports indicate the 12 MMT target was reached and the 25 MMT pledge continues through 2028. No verification beyond 2028 is available in this period.
Reliability note: The claim rests on reporting from AP, Reuters, Bloomberg, and a White House fact sheet. The combination of independent outlets and an official document lends credibility, though year-by-year purchase data for 2026–2028 may require ongoing verification.
Update · Jan 27, 2026, 10:21 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years starting in 2026. This is presented as a binding commitment with a three-year horizon.
Evidence of progress: By late January 2026, reputable outlets reported that China resumed U.S. soybean purchases after the October agreement and that the deal calls for at least 25 million metric tons annually over the three-year period beginning in 2026 (AP and Reuters coverage). Reuters also noted a concrete milestone: about 12 million metric tons had been purchased by January 2026, with further shipments planned through February as part of the broader truce.
Current status of the promise: The available reporting indicates the framework has moved from agreement to implementation, with purchases resuming and the 25 MMT annual target publicly acknowledged. However, the three-year completion requires sustained purchases across 2026, 2027, and 2028, so the full completion is not yet verifiable.
Key milestones and dates: The late-2025 trade truce enabled initial soybean purchases; by January 2026, 12 MMT had been bought toward the 25 MMT annual target, signaling progress toward the first year of the commitment. Ongoing data through 2026–2028 will determine full completion.
Source reliability and context: Coverage from Reuters (Jan 20, 2026) and AP (Oct 30, 2025) come from reputable outlets citing official statements and shipment data. While incentives and political framing may influence rhetoric, the reported procurement figures align with the stated targets in the cited sources. Overall, evidence supports ongoing implementation with outcomes to be confirmed in the subsequent years.
Follow-up note: A final assessment should occur after the 2026–2028 period to confirm whether China sustained purchases at or above 25 MMT for all three years.
Update · Jan 27, 2026, 08:11 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public communications from late 2025 establish a phased commitment. A White House fact sheet dated November 1, 2025 states China will buy at least 12 million metric tons in the remainder of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually in 2026, 2027, and 2028. News reporting and Treasury remarks in January 2026 reaffirm ongoing discussions and the framework’s terms (AP, CNBC, Treasury remarks) [White House fact sheet; AP 2025-10/2025-11; CNBC 2025-12; Treasury Jan 8, 2026].
Status of completion: There is a stated commitment for 2026–2028, but as of January 26, 2026, the three-year annual purchase target is in the early stage of implementation. No independently audited or enforcement mechanism is publicly described, and the completion condition (binding purchases each year) has not been independently verified for 2026 or further years. The framework appears as a policy pledge rather than a legally binding contract with explicit enforcement terms.
Dates and milestones: The plan centers on 2025 end-year purchases (12 MMT) and annual 25 MMT commitments for 2026–2028 per the White House fact sheet; subsequent media coverage notes ongoing interpretation and adjustments (e.g., timeline clarifications from December 2025).
Reliability of sources: The core facts draw from a White House fact sheet and major outlets reporting on official statements (AP, CNBC) plus Treasury remarks. These sources are appropriate for policy announcements, though they describe commitments rather than independently verifiable execution data. Readers should treat the 25 MMT target as an announced framework milestone rather than a completely verifiable, enforceable obligation at this stage.
Follow-up note: If available, follow up after the 2026 end of year purchases to confirm whether China purchased 25 MMT in 2026, and then 2027 and 2028 as planned; suggested follow-up date: 2026-12-31.
Update · Jan 27, 2026, 04:30 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: A new trade framework allegedly obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The quoted line appears in a Treasury remarks page dated January 8, 2026, but the document environment surrounding the text is not clearly verifiable as an official, citable policy instrument.
Evidence of progress: Publicly verifiable evidence showing that China has committed to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three consecutive years is not readily found in independent, high-quality sources. The Treasury page itself is the primary, but non-persistent, source for the exact 25 Mt figure in this claim, and there are no corroborating press releases or major outlets confirming a binding, three-year purchase obligation.
Current status and milestones: As of January 26, 2026, there is no confirmed completion or formal implementation record documenting a three-year, minimum-25 Mt annual purchase obligation by China. Without corroboration from reputable outlets (e.g., Reuters,
Bloomberg, FT) or an official joint statement from U.S. and
Chinese authorities, the claim remains unverified and uncompleted. The three-year horizon would require ongoing reporting of annual purchase volumes beginning in 2026, which is not yet evidenced.
Reliability and incentives: The Treasury source provided appears to be an internal remarks document rather than a standalone, verifiable policy framework with lasting official status. Given potential political incentives in the cited remarks (public messaging around trade gains), independent verification is essential. Until multiple high-quality sources confirm a binding purchase commitment and track annual volumes, treat the claim as unverified with low confidence.
Notes on sources: There is a lack of corroboration from established financial news outlets or official joint statements to support the 25 Mt annual purchase commitment. The primary reference available is a Treasury remarks page dated 2026-01-08, which, in this instance, does not appear to be mirrored or validated by additional primary documents or independent reporting.
Update · Jan 27, 2026, 03:23 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting indicates that China has agreed to this volume commitment, with an initial 12 million metric tons to be purchased by early 2026 and a pledge to reach 25 million metric tons annually for the following three years. Evidence shows progress on the short-term target (12 million metric tons by around January 2026), but the full three-year 25 million-ton-per-year framework remains contingent on ongoing implementation and market conditions. Reliability of sources appears high, with coverage from AP and Reuters documenting the pledge and early deliveries, though the long-term cadence is still uncertain and subject to policy and market dynamics.
Update · Jan 27, 2026, 01:02 AMin_progress
What the claim states: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This framing appears in Treasury remarks and was echoed in reports about a formal agreement reached by U.S. and
Chinese leaders in late 2025.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates China resumed purchases of U.S. soybeans starting in October 2025, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that China would buy 12 million metric tons in the remaining months of 2025 and, under the framework, a total of 25 million metric tons annually for the three-year term. AP coverage explicitly notes the 25 MMT annual target through 2028 as part of the deal reached by leaders.
Current status and milestones: The arrangement is described as ongoing through 2028, with an initial tranche of 12 million MMT slated for late 2025 and the full 25 MMT annual commitment to run for three years thereafter. Public sources corroborate that the 25 MMT figure is the agreed annual level, though actual monthly/quarterly deliveries can vary due to market conditions.
Dates and milestones of note: October 2025 marks the start of resumed U.S. soybeans purchases by China; December 2025–January 2026 coverage notes the deal’s terms and the three-year duration through 2028. The projected completion date is not fixed in a single calendar date, since achievement depends on ongoing purchases each year of the framework period.
Source reliability note: The most consistent and timely verification comes from Associated Press reporting, which quotes the Treasury Secretary and details the 12 MMT immediate tranche and the 25 MMT annual commitment through 2028. Other outlets (CNBC, farm policy analyses) align on the same framework, supporting the claim’s core elements. Overall, sources are mainstream, with no evident competing incentives suggesting a deliberate misrepresentation.
Follow-up: If available, monitor USDA import data and Treasury/White House statements for annual totals and any revisions to the 25 MMT target or the three-year window. A follow-up date to reassess progress could be 2028-12-31.
Update · Jan 26, 2026, 10:40 PMin_progress
What the claim states: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, beginning with 12 million metric tons by January and then 25 million per year thereafter. What evidence exists of progress: Public reporting confirms an agreement committing China to 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with an initial tranche of 12 million metric tons anticipated by January 2026 and the framework described by Treasury remarks. Has the promise been completed or is it ongoing: As of January 2026, the arrangement is described as in effect and ongoing, with the initial tranche underway and the three-year purchase target remaining in scope; there is no evidence of full completion within the three-year window yet. Concrete milestones and dates: Key milestones include the late-2025 agreement and the January 2026 initiation of the 12 million-ton tranche, with the overall horizon extending through 2028. Source reliability: The Aligned reporting from AP News and official Treasury remarks provide corroborating accounts of the agreement and its intended timeline, though outcomes depend on year-by-year purchases in practice.
Update · Jan 26, 2026, 08:27 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts a new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence shows the commitment was publicly described by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as part of a broader deal, with a target of 25 million metric tons annually for the three-year period starting after an initial phase. Independent reporting confirms the deal includes an initial year around 12 million tons and a pledge of 25 million tons annually for the following three years, but actual yearly purchases at the 25 MMt level have not yet been independently verified as completed. Status remains that the framework is in effect, but progress toward the yearly target is unconfirmed and ongoing.
Update · Jan 26, 2026, 06:36 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China must buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The announced framework described 25 million tons annually through 2028, with an initial 12 million-ton tranche expected by the end of 2025. Independent reporting rounds up these commitments but does not yet confirm three consecutive years of 25 million tons purchased as of early 2026.
Progress evidence includes the stated 12 million-ton purchase by January 2026 and the annual 25 million-ton target through 2028, as reported by AP and trade analyses. There is no publicly verified data showing that China purchased 25 million tons in each of 2026 and 2027, which is needed to satisfy the completion condition. The absence of confirmatory import data means the status remains uncertain.
The reliability of sources varies: AP and university- and policy-analyst outlets provide the strongest independent signals about the framework and milestones, while the Treasury page linked to the claim lacks corroboration in this context. A definitive status update requires official import data or statements confirming year-by-year fulfillment.
Follow-up should track actual U.S. soybean export volumes to China for 2026–2028 and any official confirmations from Treasury or White House; a tentative follow-up date is set for 2026-12-31 to assess whether the three-year commitment was completed.
Update · Jan 26, 2026, 04:14 PMin_progress
What the claim says: The article claims a new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates China fulfilled an initial tranche and committed to 25 MMT annually through 2028, with 12 MMT completed earlier and 25 MMT per year planned in the following years. Completion status: As of 2026-01-26, three consecutive years at 25 MMT had not yet elapsed, so the stated completion condition has not been met. Reliability note: Reports from AP News and Treasury remarks are the primary public sources; policy shifts or market changes could alter the framework.
Update · Jan 26, 2026, 02:23 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: Public reporting attributes an agreement in which China would begin with approximately 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the near term and commit to about 25 million metric tons annually for a three-year period, as part of a broader U.S.-China deal announced by Treasury officials in late 2025. AP News confirms the stated 25 million metric tons annually and notes the three-year duration, with an initial 12 million metric tons to be shipped by early 2026 (start period described as now through January). Multiple industry outlets echoed the framing of a three-year commitment at 25 MMT, following a near-term 12 MMT tranche.
Status assessment: The agreement appears to be in effect and progressing, with a clearly stated near-term shipment and a multi-year annual purchase commitment. There is no publicly available evidence indicating the deal has been fully completed or abrogated, but the expiration/fulfillment timing hinges on each calendar year’s purchases over the three-year window. Given the last reported milestones, the arrangement is better described as in_progress rather than complete.
Milestones and dates: The near-term port of shipments (about 12 MMT) was described as occurring between late 2025 and January 2026. The framework specifies 25 MMT annually for the following three years. Precise quarterly purchase figures and year-by-year deliveries beyond the initial tranche have not been universally disclosed in authoritative sources.
Source reliability note: AP News is a high-quality, mainstream outlet with direct sourcing from Treasury officials, and its reporting on the claim is consistent with the Treasury framing observed in subsequent coverage. Treasury press materials reviewed include a January 2026 remarks page that mirrors the claim in public statements, though the page itself is part of a broader political communications context. Given the mix of official documents and independent reporting, the assessment relies on corroborated reporting from AP and trade-coverage outlets to gauge progress. The claim’s original presentation on the Treasury site appears to align with AP’s reporting, but the Treasury page itself is not a neutral external corroboration.
Update · Jan 26, 2026, 12:28 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting confirms the framework includes a three-year commitment of 25 million metric tons annually, with an initial tranche of 12 million metric tons to be purchased by the end of 2025 and ongoing annual purchases thereafter (through 2028). As of 2026-01-26, the milestone window is underway but not yet completed, and no credible source indicates cancellation of the framework.
Update · Jan 26, 2026, 10:44 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public framing in late 2025 described this 25 MMT annual commitment as part of the China–U.S. trade framework, with officials citing the figure. Independent reporting since then has shown purchases have fallen short of the target in the initial period, indicating progress is uneven and not yet fulfilled (AP, CNBC analyses).
Evidence of progress includes China resuming purchases of U.S. soybeans after the agreement and officials presenting the target as the path toward the 25 MMT goal, with projections that the total could reach the target in subsequent months (CNBC, NBC News synthesis; AP coverage).
As of the current date (January 26, 2026), the promise appears not yet completed. Analyses describe the arrangement as ongoing, with substantial uncertainty about sustained, year-by-year fulfillment for all three years, given market, weather, and broader trade-policy dynamics (AP; CNBC).
Key dates cited in reporting include the late-2025 restart of soybean purchases and ongoing monitoring into 2026, but there is no definitive public record confirming that all three years will meet the 25 MMT floor without interruption (CNBC; AP).
Reliability note: The sources are mainstream outlets (AP, CNBC) with reference to USDA data and official statements. Coverage consistently treats the 25 MMT target as a goal tied to the framework, with ongoing uncertainty about actual purchases achieving that level each year. Cautious interpretation is warranted until formal, verifiable data confirm sustained fulfillment.
Update · Jan 26, 2026, 08:12 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting indicates an initial tranche of purchases and an ongoing framework, with 12 million metric tons expected to be bought by January 2026 and the full 25 million metric tons annually projected through 2028, according to Treasury and reputable news outlets (AP News, Oct 30, 2025).
As of January 2026, there is evidence of progress on the framework: China began with an immediate purchase of 12 million metric tons in the near term, and discussions or statements from officials have framed the arrangement as lasting three years, covering 2026–2028 (AP News, Oct 30, 2025). However, granular, independently verifiable milestones for each consecutive year beyond the initial tranche are not uniformly documented in primary sources.
There is no credible public record showing full completion of the three-year annual 25 million metric ton commitment by any fixed date; the arrangement remains in the implementation phase with annual purchases and yearly benchmarks typical of such frameworks. The reliability of reporting is high for the core claim due to coverage by AP, but some secondary outlets have circulated paraphrased or promotional summaries; cross-checking with official statements remains essential.
Source reliability: AP News is a reputable outlet and reported the 25 million metric ton annual figure and three-year term, with Treasury comments confirming the framework’s intended terms. Ongoing verification should track official Treasury statements and
Chinese import data for 2026–2028 to confirm year-by-year adherence to the 25 Mt target. Follow-up should occur on or after the projected milestones in 2026, 2027, and 2028.
Update · Jan 26, 2026, 04:11 AMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: A White House fact sheet (Nov 1, 2025) stated a 12 million metric ton purchase in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually in 2026–2028. Reuters (Jan 20, 2026) reported China had reached the 12 million ton target by late January, with purchases by Sinograin and COFCO as part of the broader truce framework.
Current status: The three-year 25 MMT annual commitment appears to be in the early implementation phase, with the 12 MMT tranche fulfilled and the 25 MMT annual target planned for 2026–2028 according to official and independent reporting.
Milestones: (1) 12 MMT purchases by end-2025/early-2026, (2) 25 MMT annually from 2026 onward through 2028, (3) ongoing purchases through 2028 under the agreement. Reliability depends on official procurement data and corroborating reporting from major outlets.
Source reliability: The White House fact sheet is a primary government source; Reuters provides independent verification of shipments; AP coverage from late 2025 also summarizes the agreement. Together they support ongoing implementation rather than a concluded, completed event.
Update · Jan 26, 2026, 02:07 AMin_progress
What the claim says: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Reuters reported that China has bought about 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by January 2026, fulfilling a pledge to reach a 12 million-ton target by February 2026. AP and other outlets cited Treasury statements signaling a 25 million-ton annual target over the three-year window starting in 2026.
Current status: Public reporting as of late January 2026 shows the 12 million-ton milestone achieved, but there is no clear, publicly verifiable confirmation that China is consistently purchasing 25 million metric tons each year for 2026–2028.
Dates and milestones: The late-October 2025 truce enabled resumed U.S. soybean shipments, with a 12 million-ton purchase by early 2026; the 25 million-ton annual target is described as part of the framework but public verification of ongoing annual purchases remains incomplete.
Source reliability and incentives: Reuters provides market-sourced coverage and appears to reflect official framing; AP adds context from Treasury remarks. The claim’s framing relies on political statements about a framework, which may not constitute a binding obligation publicly documented in a verifiable, ongoing stream of purchases as of January 2026.
Update · Jan 26, 2026, 12:16 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article claims that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence exists that an agreement promising 25 million metric tons per year for three years was announced in late 2025, with an initial delivery tranche of about 12 million metric tons to occur by January 2026. Public reporting indicates the 25 million-ton annual target is a framework commitment, with progress measured by early deliveries and ongoing import activity rather than a finalized annual tally for each year. The January 2026 Treasury materials corroborate the framing of this commitment, while press coverage attributes the concrete figure to statements by Treasury officials.
Update · Jan 25, 2026, 10:12 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework with
China,
Beijing is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The characterization treats this as a binding, multi-year commitment.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting in October–November 2025 described an agreement where China would buy at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually in the subsequent years (2026–2028), with some sources noting a near-term 12 million metric tons in late 2025 as part of the broader deal. These disclosures come from U.S. government and major media outlets (e.g., AP, White House briefings, and USTR/White House summaries). Progress appeared to hinge on public announcements rather than a fully executed, verifiable contract.
Evidence of completion, progress, or setback: By late January 2026, there is no independent, formal verification that the three-year 25 MMT annual purchase obligation is fully executed or legally binding in a way that guarantees shipments each year. Public-facing sources describe the framework or commitments, but binding force and enforcement details remain unclear in the reporting to date. The Treasury remarks (Jan 8, 2026) echo the framework but do not provide a third-party audit or enforceable agreement timeline.
Dates and milestones: The key milestone is the November 2025 deal announcements positioning China to purchase at least 25 MMT annually in 2026–2028, with initial near-term volumes also cited (e.g., 12 MMT in late 2025). The current status in January 2026 centers on political/official statements rather than a published, enforceable contract or regulatory filing. Ongoing verification would require updates from U.S. government agencies or independent market observers.
Source reliability and incentives: The cited sources include U.S. government press materials (Treasury remarks, White House summaries) and reputable outlets (AP). Given the high-profile political framing and incentives around trade diplomacy, skepticism is warranted about the binding nature of the obligation until formal, verifiable instruments are disclosed. Overall, sources indicate progress in framing, with uncertain enforceability and no conclusive completion.
Follow-up note: If a formal, enforceable framework with quantified purchase commitments and measurable milestones emerges, a follow-up on whether 2026–2028 volumes meet or exceed the pledged 25 MMT annually should be pursued. A practical follow-up date is 2026-12-31 to capture end-of-year confirmation of annual commitments and actual purchases.
Update · Jan 25, 2026, 08:02 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Current reporting indicates China agreed to a three‑year framework with a baseline of 12 million metric tons in the initial period and 25 million metric tons annually for the subsequent years. The higher annual commitment is presented as ongoing rather than completed as of early 2026. Independent coverage describes the arrangement as lasting three years starting in 2025, with shipments tied to annual purchase targets.
Evidence of progress: public statements from Treasury officials and media reports indicate initial purchases occurred and that the three-year horizon is being pursued. AP News quoted Treasury sources describing a 25 million metric ton annual target for the following three years, with an initial 12 MMT tranche. Market analyses since late 2025 have framed the deal as restoring previous purchase levels.
Completion status: as of 2026-01-25, the arrangement has not reached final completion; the three-year term remains in effect and ongoing, with annual volumes contingent on implementation. No authoritative source shows a formal end to the framework or a formal cancellation of the commitment.
Milestones and dates: the arrangement reportedly began with 12 MMT in late 2025, proceeding to 25 MMT per year for 2026–2028, implying completion around the 2028 harvest cycle if terms hold. Verification of quarterly or yearly shipment totals is not publicly detailed in the cited sources.
Source reliability: coverage from AP News and the Treasury press materials provides primary accounts of the framework and its terms. While AP reflects statements by officials, independent market analyses corroborate the three-year horizon and volume targets, lending credibility to the core claim. Cited sources are considered reputable, though exact annual shipment totals may hinge on ongoing negotiations.
Update · Jan 25, 2026, 06:39 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public mentions of the commitment appeared in late 2025, described as part of a broader China-U.S. trade thaw and cited by outlets such as AP News. Treasury remarks on January 8, 2026 reiterate the 25 million metric tons per year figure as part of the framework announced after U.S.-China talks. Independent analyses have treated the number as a stated target rather than a legally binding, independently verifiable contract at that time.
Update · Jan 25, 2026, 04:08 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The Treasury press materials and subsequent reporting anchor this as a commitment tied to a late-2025 truce with China, with purchases slated to begin in 2026. The stated condition is that China buys no less than 25 million metric tons each year for three consecutive years.
Evidence progress: Reports indicate a two-part sequence: an initial 12 million metric tons purchase by China in late 2025/early 2026, fulfilling a separate short-term target, and an ongoing pledge that China will buy at least 25 million metric tons annually in 2026, 2027, and 2028. Reuters notes that the 12 million-ton target was met by January 2026, with additional purchases by state entities; the White House and AP coverage link the 25 million-ton annual commitment to the late-October agreement. This establishes partial progress toward the three-year 25 million-ton objective, but not a firm, verifiable three-year total completed as of today.
Current status and milestones: The key milestone—China purchasing 25 million metric tons in each of the three years starting in 2026—remains in progress and contingent on ongoing implementation and market conditions. Publicly available sources show a first-year 12 million-ton fulfillment by January 2026 and a continuing expectation of larger volumes later in 2026 and beyond, but no final completion or cancellation of the three-year framework is reported. The reliability of the trajectory rests on U.S. government statements and independent trade reporting confirming ongoing purchases, rather than an independently audited, closed-out completion.
Source reliability: Coverage comes from major outlets (Reuters, AP) and official White House materials tied to the agreement. Reuters provides contemporaneous detail on the 12 million-ton milestone and reiterates the 25 million-ton annual pledge through 2028, while AP reports Treasury Secretary comments on the initial agreement. Taken together, these sources support a status that progress has begun, but the three-year completion condition has not yet been fulfilled as of 2026-01-25.
Update · Jan 25, 2026, 02:08 PMin_progress
What the claim says: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This framing mirrors public accounts of a China–U.S. soybean deal tied to the broader relationship and trade framework announced in late 2025.
Evidence of progress: Multiple reputable outlets reported that China agreed to buy at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually, with an initial tranche of purchases totaling 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025 and ongoing commitments through 2028. AP notes the three-year duration, while CNBC highlights the near-term target of 12 million by year-end 2025 and the annual 25 million through 2028.
Current status: As of January 25, 2026, the arrangement appears to be in the early implementation phase, with ongoing shipments and annual targets in place for 2026–2028 per the framing of the deal. Public reporting indicates China resumed purchases in October 2025 and is moving toward the annual 25 million metric tons target under the three-year framework.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones cited include a late-October 2025 agreement in principle, followed by 12 million metric tons purchased by the end of 2025, and the promise of at least 25 million metric tons per year through 2028. The deal’s three-year horizon would thus run roughly 2025–2028, with ongoing monitoring of quarterly and annual purchase totals.
Reliability of sources: Reporting from The Associated Press and CNBC is consistent on the core commitments (12 million by year-end 2025; 25 million annually through 2028). Purdue/agronomic analyses and other outlets echo the same milestone trajectory, although some early summaries varied in phrasing. Taken together, these sources provide convergent, non-partisan coverage of the claimed framework and its milestones.
Notes on incentives: The reporting emphasizes U.S. agricultural exporters’ stake in restoring China as a large purchaser, while acknowledging policy framing around broader trade relations. In this context, the incentive structure—China seeking supply assurances and the U.S. government aiming to stabilize farm income—helps explain why the milestone targets were publicly framed and tracked.
Update · Jan 25, 2026, 12:14 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The Treasury remarks (Jan 8, 2026) frame the 25 million per year as part of the framework’s terms. Reuters (Jan 20, 2026) corroborates that the pledge is 25 million metric tons annually for three years starting in 2026, but notes that the first year has not yet reached the full target. This leaves the completion condition pending further purchases in 2026–2028.
Update · Jan 25, 2026, 10:27 AMin_progress
The claim states
China will buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years under a new trade framework. Public reporting (AP, Jan 2026) describes an initial 12 million MT by January 2026 and a three-year run at 25 MT annually, but treats this as a negotiated framework with no clear enforceable mechanism. Progress evidence: statements by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and media coverage noting staged purchases; completion status remains uncertain as there is no binding document publicly confirming enforcement. Milestones cited: 12
MT by Jan 2026; 25 MT annually through 2028; verification of quarterly exports through 2026–2028 remains to be published. Source reliability: AP and Treasury communications are credible, while agricultural-policy analyses provide context but less direct official confirmation.
Update · Jan 25, 2026, 08:09 AMin_progress
What the claim states: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans each year for the next three years, i.e., a three-year annual minimum of 25 MMT.
Progress evidence: Public statements from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in late 2025 claimed China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually for the following three years, forming the backbone of the framework. The Treasury remarks and subsequent coverage confirm the stated commitment, while independent analyses discuss the 25 MMT figure in the context of a rolling multi-year purchase schedule. (Treasury remarks, AP coverage, 2025–2025 window.)
Current status: As of 2026-01-24, there is public acknowledgment of the agreement's terms, but independent verification of actual purchasing volumes for 2025 or 2026 is limited in widely reported sources. The three-year minimum remains a stated objective tied to the framework, but concrete shipment data or contracts for 2026 have not been conclusively documented in high-quality outlets at the time of this snapshot.
Milestones and reliability note: The primary source asserting the commitment is an official Treasury statement, with corroborating reporting from major outlets (AP) noting the 25 MMT annual figure. Given the timeline, the claim hinges on ongoing implementation and reported purchases through 2025–2028; concrete milestone publications (shipment tallies, official procurement data) beyond late-2025 reporting are not clearly established in the sources checked.
Sources and reliability: The Treasury press materials provide the explicit 25 MMT per year for three years. Secondary reporting from AP and market analyses contextualizes the claim, but independent verification of actual purchases for 2025–2026 remains limited in the cited sources.
Update · Jan 25, 2026, 04:07 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The Treasury source and contemporaneous reporting frame this as a three-year commitment beginning with the agreement in late 2025.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates China resumed purchases after October 2025, with initial commitments of 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025 and an announced trajectory of 25 million metric tons annually through 2028, per AP and coverage of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks. CNBC notes that actual purchases as of December 2025 were well below the 25 MMT target for the year, while Treasury and White House messaging signaled a multi-year framework. AP corroborates the 25 MMT annual figure as part of the deal reached by leaders.
Current status: As of January 24, 2026, China had begun fulfilling the framework’s terms, but evidence shows partial progress in early 2026 and mixed adherence to the full annual target in the initial period. The 25 MMT annual commitment remains contingent on ongoing implementation over the three-year window, with early data suggesting progress toward the goal but not universal evidence of full-year 2026 fulfillment.
Milestones and dates: The underlying agreement is described as lasting three years, with a 12 MMT tranche due by January 2026 and a total of 25 MMT per year through 2028 per AP reporting. Public commentary from Treasury Secretary Bessent and subsequent coverage indicate the framework is in development, with the earliest concrete purchases occurring in late 2025 and ongoing activity into 2026-2027. The CNBC article (Dec 2025) highlights that actual purchases in late 2025 did not meet the 25 MMT target for that period, illustrating the ongoing nature of the commitment.
Reliability note: Sources include the U.S. Treasury press site (official framing of the agreement), AP reporting quoting Treasury officials, and major outlets ( CNBC) tracking actual shipment data and commitments. While AP and Treasury provide the official stated terms, contemporaneous market reporting shows partial progress and variance in annualized fulfillment, underscoring the need for ongoing verification of 2026–2028 milestones. Overall, the claim remains credible but not yet proven complete given the early-stage data and the three-year horizon.
Update · Jan 25, 2026, 02:00 AMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Progress evidence: Public reporting indicates China has fulfilled a smaller initial target (about 12 million metric tons) by late February 2026, with traders and Reuters noting this milestone as the pledged volume by that date. Completion status: There is no verifiable evidence that China has begun or completed the full three-year, 25 MMT-per-year obligation by the current date; the three-year commitment remains unverified beyond the early milestone. Dates and milestones: Key dates include the Treasury release (January 8, 2026) introducing the framework and market reporting around January–February 2026; the three-year annual target has not been independently confirmed as ongoing beyond the initial milestone. Source reliability note: The Treasury release frames the framework officially, while independent outlets provide market milestones; together they support partial progress but not a completed track record as of 2026-01-24.
Update · Jan 25, 2026, 12:13 AMin_progress
Brief restatement of the claim: A new U.S.–China trade framework obligates
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Public reporting depicts a 12 MMT initial purchase in late 2025, followed by a commitment to 25 MMT annually for the next three years (AP News, 2025-10-30; NBC/CNBC synthesis, 2025-12).
Status and progress evidence: Reports indicate China resumed U.S. soybean purchases in October 2025 after a boycott, with early 2026 data showing purchases well below the 25 MMT target, suggesting the framework is still unfolding rather than fully realized (AP News; NBC News/CNBC coverage, 2025).
Completion status: By January 2026 the three-year obligation had not yet been demonstrated as completed; sources describe the deal as ongoing with progress toward the 25 MMT annual level still to be proven (AP News, 2025-10-30; CNBC, 2025-12-09).
Dates and milestones: Key milestones cited include 12 MMT during the last two months of 2025, then 25 MMT annually through 2028; public records through January 2026 show ongoing progress rather than finished fulfillment (FarmDoc Daily, 2025-11-17).
Reliability note: The assessment relies on AP News, CNBC and trade-analyst outlets; while they agree on the deal’s existence and initial steps, they do not provide verifiable 2026 volumes at or above 25 MMT, warranting a cautious, in-progress characterization.
Follow-up suggestion: Monitor monthly USDA trade data and official White House briefings for quantified 2026 purchases and year-over-year comparisons to 25 MMT.
Update · Jan 24, 2026, 10:09 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting confirms a 25 MMT annual target for three years, with an initial 12 MMT expected this season, announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in late October 2025 and cited by AP. Treasury remarks in January 2026 reference the same framework and annual purchase target, reinforcing the continuity of the commitment. As of January 24, 2026, there is no evidence of full completion; the arrangement appears ongoing with annual targets to be met in each year of the three-year window. Milestones to watch include actual volumes per harvest season and formal confirmations from U.S. officials and China. The reliability of the reporting rests on AP coverage and official Treasury communications; both are reputable sources, though the three-year completion remains unverified until actual purchases are tallied. Incentives for U.S. farmers and policymakers center on stabilizing demand from a major buyer, while China’s participation is tied to broader trade diplomacy.
Update · Jan 24, 2026, 08:02 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts a new trade framework obligates
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: Multiple reputable outlets reported that China agreed to resume purchases and committed to 25 million metric tons annually under a broader deal reached in late 2025, with Treasury statements from Scott Bessent cited. Coverage from AP and CNBC attributes the 25 MMT/year figure to the agreement reached by
Chinese leaders, including a harvest-season delivery of 12 MMT in late 2025 according to CNBC and AP summaries.
Current status vs. completion: As of January 24, 2026, the 25 MMT/year commitment is reported as part of the framework, but full-year verification for 2026 purchases has not been documented in primary sources. The stated completion condition—purchasing at least 25 MMT in each of three consecutive years—remains in progress and unverified for the first year.
Dates and milestones: The deal’s 25 MMT/year framework is described as in place by October 2025, with reported 12 MMT in late 2025 and ongoing commitments through 2028 in some analyses. The Treasury remarks on January 8, 2026 reiterate the framework but do not confirm 2026 purchase totals.
Source reliability note: AP and CNBC are reputable outlets for policy and market reporting; FarmDoc Daily provides additional context but is not a primary government source.
Update · Jan 24, 2026, 06:27 PMin_progress
What the claim states: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years starting with the agreement’s effect. This is described as the binding minimum China would meet each year for 2026, 2027, and 2028.
Evidence of progress: Reports in fall 2025 framed the deal as China agreeing to 25 million metric tons annually, with an earlier tranche of purchases (12 million metric tons) completed or near completion by the end of 2025. Treasury and AP News coverage cited Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announcing the 25 MMT commitment as part of the leaders’ agreement (Oct 2025). Agricultural-market analyses subsequently discussed 2026–2028 as the forward-looking continuation of that commitment.
Current status and milestones: As of January 24, 2026, there is public acknowledgement of the 25 MMT pledge for the 2026–2028 period, but concrete, independently verified dispatch data showing China meeting 25 MMT in each of 2026 and 2027 is not yet established in public records. The Treasury press release from January 8, 2026 reiterates the framework, but does not provide a year-by-year verification of 2026 purchases.
Reliability and incentives: Coverage from reputable outlets (AP News, CNBC-derived summaries, AgWeb, FarmDoc) and the U.S. Treasury statement lend credibility to the existence of the framework, though independent purchase tallies are still developing. Given the political and economic incentives for both sides—China restoring agricultural purchases and the U.S. signaling commitment to agricultural export growth—the framework hinges on verifiable shipment data in 2026 and beyond. If official import data show sustained 25 MMT annual purchases, the claim would move toward completion; if not, it remains in_progress with potential renegotiation or adjustment.
Update · Jan 24, 2026, 04:08 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, beginning with a three-year commitment. This framing appears in Treasury remarks and has been echoed by outlets describing an agreement reached by leaders, with Treasury officials stating the 25 MMT annual level for three years. The stated condition: China must buy no less than 25 million metric tons each year for three consecutive years after the agreement.
Progress evidence: Public reporting indicates China committed to an initial purchase level and a three-year framework. AP coverage in late 2025 cited Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying China would buy 25 million metric tons annually over three years, with an initial 12 million metric tons to be purchased by early 2026. CNBC/Yahoo Finance and other outlets corroborated that a 12 MMT start was planned by late 2025, followed by the higher 25 MMT annual level through 2028 in some White House materials. These pieces establish a framework and milestones rather than a completed, verifiable harvest of 25 MMT in each year to date.
Current status and milestones: As of 2026-01-24, there is a formal declaration of a three-year commitment and reported initial purchases (12 MMT by early 2026) aligning with the framework, but independent verification of a full 25 MMT purchases for 2026, 2027, and 2028 remains limited in public records. The Treasury press release (Jan 8, 2026) reiterates the three-year 25 MMT framework, but does not independently confirm full-year execution for each year beyond initial milestones reported by AP. Therefore, the completion condition—China purchasing at least 25 MMT every year for three consecutive years—has not yet been independently verified as completed.
Dates and milestones: Key dates include the 2025-10-30 reporting of a 25 MMT commitment, the 2025-12-09 disclosure of phased purchases (12 MMT by year-end 2025), and the 2026-01-08 Treasury remarks affirming the three-year 25 MMT framework. The current date is 2026-01-24, placing the status in the early phase of the three-year period, with continued adherence and actual annual totals to be confirmed in future quarterly or annual trade/accounting releases. Source reliability is strengthened by AP reporting and official Treasury remarks, though cross-verification from independent trade data remains limited.
Source reliability note: Coverage from AP and Reuters-linked outlets is considered high-quality for U.S. government statements and major policy claims. Treasury press materials provide primary confirmation of the framework, while market-focused outlets summarized the milestones and subsequent purchasing targets. Given the incentives surrounding U.S. agricultural exporters and the U.S. administration’s political framing, continued objective validation of yearly totals will be important as the three-year window progresses.
Update · Jan 24, 2026, 02:09 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The three-year frame would require China to buy no less than 25 million metric tons per year for each of the three consecutive years following the agreement.
Evidence of progress: Multiple outlets reported an Oct. 2025 arrangement in which China would commit to purchasing 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually for three years, with an initial tranche of purchases beginning in late 2025. Coverage includes AP reporting that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cited the 25 million-ton promise, and regional reporting noting the commitment aligned with pre-2020 trade levels.
Current status: As of January 2026, there is no widely corroborated public confirmation that the three-year commitment has been completed. The announcements indicate the framework and milestones are to occur over 2025–2028, and subsequent reporting suggests the arrangement remains in effect or ongoing rather than finished.
Dates and milestones: Reported milestones include an initial set of purchases starting in late 2025 and a three-year commitment totaling at least 25 million metric tons per year. No definitive end-date has been reached or publicly declared, and no formal termination or cancellation has been reported to date.
Source reliability and interpretation: The strongest contemporaneous reporting comes from AP and regional outlets citing the same 25 million-ton pledge and its timing; Purdue’s 2025 analysis also echoed the commitment. Treasury communications in early January 2026 reference the framework, but a single Treasury press page appears inconsistent with standard organizational voice and should be weighed cautiously. Overall, the claim rests on official-sounding statements from late-2025 negotiations, but definitive, verifiable milestones through 2026 remain incomplete.
Follow-up considerations: If the goal is to verify completion, check annually published trade data (U.S. exports to China by month/quarter) and any formal government confirmations of the three-year commitment’s status as 2028 approaches.
Update · Jan 24, 2026, 12:26 PMin_progress
The claim states
China must buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years under a new trade framework. Public reporting indicates a staged commitment: about 12 million MT by early 2026 and at least 25 million MT annually through 2028, with Treasury remarks describing a three-year framework but not a fixed month-by-month schedule. As of 2026-01-24, there is no independently verified text confirming an unconditional 25 MT/year obligation starting immediately; the arrangement appears in progress with terms evolving in public summaries.
Update · Jan 24, 2026, 10:27 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: A new trade framework purportedly obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public statements indicate China has resumed purchases of U.S. soybeans after the late-October truce, with reported purchases totaling about 12 million metric tons by late January 2026, fulfilling a 12 million-ton target by the end of February 2026 (tied to a pledge within the broader framework).
Progress toward completion: As of January 23, 2026, China had not yet reached the claimed 25 million metric tons for 2026; initial shipments approaching 12 million tons are underway, with the remaining volume expected later in the period. The explicit annual 25 million-ton target for 2026–2028 remains an announced framework rather than a fully executed annual total to date.
Milestones and dates: Key milestone cited is reaching roughly 12 million tons by the end of February 2026, with the framework promising 25 million tons annually for the next three years starting in 2026. The Associated Press (AP) reported the 25 million-ton figure as part of the agreement; Reuters’ coverage confirms the 12 million-ton target being met shortly before February 2026.
Source reliability and incentives: Coverage from AP and Reuters is consistent with a high-standard, fact-based reporting baseline. The Treasury press release (SB0353) from January 8, 2026 is the formal government framing of the commitment, but independent verification as to full annual 25 million-ton purchases for 2026–2028 remains pending as of 2026-01-23. The incentive structure appears to align with political signaling and farm-sector interests, but the concrete annual execution depends on ongoing shipments and contract rolls.
Follow-up note: A targeted check on 2026-02-28 to confirm whether China has achieved the full 25 million-ton level for 2026 or if the remaining volume is still in transit or awaiting subsequent purchases would clarify whether the promise has moved from framework to fully realized annual totals.
Update · Jan 24, 2026, 08:01 AMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: Public reporting indicates China committed to buying 25 million metric tons annually through a three-year period starting with an initial tranche and continuing through 2028. Reports noted a first tranche of purchases (12 million metric tons) by the end of 2025, with the broader 25 million metric ton annual target tied to the three-year framework per summaries from AP News and subsequent analyses.
Completed vs. in progress: As of early 2026, the 25 MMT-per-year target is not yet completed; early progress shows partial start and ongoing purchases toward the goal. The three-year completion condition remains in progress rather than finished.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones include Oct 30, 2025: China agrees to purchase 25 MMT annually; end of 2025: 12 MMT to be bought; 2026–2028: annual 25 MMT purchases under the framework, with ongoing reporting through 2026 about progress toward the target.
Source reliability and incentives: The principal sources are AP News and CNBC coverage, reinforced by Purdue/farmdoc Daily analyses cited in policy summaries. These outlets are reputable for policy reporting; USDA data will be the definitive check on yearly totals.
Update · Jan 24, 2026, 04:34 AMin_progress
Restatement of claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years starting in 2026.
Evidence of progress: A November 2025 White House fact sheet and subsequent reputable reporting (AP, CNBC) describe a commitment for China to buy 25 MMT annually in 2026–2028, with an initial 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025. These sources frame the arrangement as a formal target within a broader trade framework.
Current status: As of early 2026, the framework and annual target are documented, but independent verification of year-by-year purchases for 2026–2028 depends on official trade data releases, which may lag. There is no publicly available data confirming full three-year fulfillment yet.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones include the White House fact sheet (Nov 1, 2025) and AP/CNBC reporting through late 2025 and early 2026 confirming intended purchases. The completion condition relies on three consecutive years of 25 MMT, with 2026–2028 identified as the target window.
Source reliability note: The core claim rests on official government communications and reputable media reporting, which are consistent but require official trade data for final verification. While the framework is publicly described, actual fulfillment hinges on future purchases disclosed by authorities and trade statistics.
Update · Jan 24, 2026, 02:53 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The Treasury press release (SB0353, Jan 8, 2026) and subsequent reporting describe a 25 MMT annual commitment, but the document itself does not spell out binding enforcement mechanics. Public reports cite a first-year progress of about 12 MMT purchased by late Jan 2026, indicating partial progress toward the target and the need for further year-by-year verification.
Update · Jan 24, 2026, 12:40 AMin_progress
Claim restated: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, with an initial period and then sustained annual buys for the three-year window.
Evidence of progress: Reports from late 2025 describe China agreeing to a deal that includes at least 12 million metric tons in the initial period and 25 million metric tons annually for the following three years, cited by AP and CNBC as part of a China–U.S. agreement reached in late October 2025 and continuing into early 2026.
Current status vs completion: As of 2026-01-23, purchases are underway, but the three-year commitment has not yet elapsed, so the arrangement is in_progress rather than complete.
Milestones and dates: Notable milestones include a reported 12 million metric tons purchase between late 2025 and January 2026, followed by the 25 million metric ton annual target through 2028, per AP (Oct 30, 2025) and CNBC (Dec 9, 2025).
Source reliability: The core claims rely on statements from Treasury officials as reported by AP and CNBC; while these outlets are reputable, contract terms and enforceability are not fully public, leaving some details open to interpretation.
Update · Jan 23, 2026, 10:47 PMin_progress
Restatement of the claim: The Treasury release describes a new trade framework under which
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. This framing was echoed by Treasury officials and cited in remarks accompanying the January 2026 release.
Progress evidence: Public reporting in late 2025 indicated an agreement or framework linking China to sizable soybean purchases, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating China would buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years in connection with the broader trade framework. Subsequent coverage noted that the purchase pace in late 2025 fell short of the initial target, with AP and CNBC coverage confirming that purchases resumed but were not yet at the 25 million tonnes-per-year level by year-end 2025 and early 2026.
Completion status: As of 2026-01-23, there is no public evidence that China has completed three consecutive years of purchasing no less than 25 million metric tons each year. The available reporting indicates the target was asserted or expected, with partial fulfillment in late 2025 and early 2026; ongoing purchases and verification of annual totals remain in progress or yet to be fully realized. The claim remains unresolved in terms of full completion.
Dates and milestones:
- Late Oct 2025: Reports describe an agreement/framework in which China would buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years.
- Dec 2025: Coverage notes China restarted purchases, with estimates around 12 million metric tons for the near term, well below the 25 million figure.
- Jan 8, 2026: Treasury materials reiterate the 25 million-ton annual target as part of the framework.
- Jan 23, 2026: Public reporting shows progress but not full three-year fulfillment.
Source reliability note: The claim originates from official Treasury materials, but independent coverage (AP News, CNBC) provides checks on volumes and timelines. The incentives of speakers and outlets should be weighed when interpreting the commitment’s definitiveness; independent sources are used here to gauge progress against the stated target.
Update · Jan 23, 2026, 08:27 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: Reports indicate China and U.S. leaders reached a trade agreement in late 2025, with China agreeing to buy 12 million metric tons by end-2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. Media outlets reported shipments resumed in late 2025, marking early compliance with the larger 25 MMT commitment. Treasury remarks and subsequent coverage corroborate the 25 MMT annual target for the 2026–2028 window.
Current status: As of January 2026, the framework’s 25 MMT per year target remains in effect for 2026–2028, with annual purchasing benchmarks. No public source has declared the three-year window complete, since the window extends to 2028.
Source reliability and caveats: Coverage from AP, CNBC, AgWeb, FarmDocDaily, and Yahoo Finance aligns on the deal’s core parameters. The Treasury remarks reiterate the framework, but full confirmation requires next-year purchase data; ongoing results should be tracked annually.
Update · Jan 23, 2026, 06:34 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: The White House fact sheet (Nov 2025) commits China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in 2026, 2027, and 2028, with an initial 12 million-ton purchase in late 2025. AP reporting corroborates the 25 MMT annual figure as part of the same framework.
Current status vs. completion: The framework is active with annual purchases specified for 2026–2028; completion would occur after the trio of 2026–2028 milestones are fulfilled. As of January 2026, the arrangement is in_progress rather than complete, pending verified year-by-year purchases.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones include 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 MMT annually in 2026–2028, according to official White House materials and corroborating coverage from AP. The status will depend on actual purchases each year through 2028.
Source reliability note: The central commitments originate from official White House documentation and Treasury remarks, with AP coverage providing independent corroboration. This combination supports a higher reliability for the stated commitments, though ongoing verification of annual purchases is required to mark final completion.
Update · Jan 23, 2026, 04:13 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: A new U.S.–China trade framework would require
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence of progress: public reporting in late 2025 indicated a commitment of 12 million tons in 2025 and 25 million tons annually for the subsequent three years, reflecting a reorientation of agricultural purchases (White House fact sheet cited by AP, CNBC, and AgWeb/FarmDoc Daily coverage). The Treasury press remarks (Jan 8, 2026) reiterated the 25 million-ton annual target for the next three years as part of the framework. Status as of now: while the commitment has been publicly stated and framed by Treasury, month-by-month verification of actual shipments reaching 25 million tons per year has not been publicly documented, leaving the completion status unresolved.
Update · Jan 23, 2026, 02:19 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: Public reporting confirms China has agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually as part of the agreement cited by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, with an initial 12 million metric tons to be purchased between now and January 2026 (AP News summary of the deal) and the three-year duration stated by officials (AP News, Oct. 2025; Treasury remarks Jan. 8, 2026).
Status of completion: The three-year purchase commitment is ongoing, with a lower initial tranche already due and the full 25 MMT annual target slated for the following two to three years. There is no completed end date by the current date, and the completion condition remains contingent on continued annual purchases for three consecutive years.
Key dates and milestones: 1) 12 MMT to be purchased between now and January 2026; 2) 25 MMT annually for the subsequent three-year period (2026–2029) as described by officials; 3) ongoing monitoring for annual fulfillment milestones during those years. The principal milestones are the initiation of the 12 MMT tranche and the annual 25 MMT commitments over the next three years.
Source reliability and balance: The core claim is supported by reputable sources, including AP News reporting on the agreement and Treasury Secretary statements cited in a Treasury press release. Both sources are standard benchmarks for official policy disclosures and market-context reporting; no partisan framing is evident in these particular items.
Follow-up note: If the deal proceeds as planned, next reviews should focus on actual annual purchases in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028, as well as any adjustments to the 25 MMT target due to weather, markets, or policy changes. Follow-up date: 2029-01-01
Update · Jan 23, 2026, 12:27 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article claimed a new trade framework obligates
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Publicly available reporting confirms that a framework existed in which China would purchase 25 million metric tons annually, with initial imports of 12 million tons by the end of January 2026 and annual commitments of 25 million tons for three years. The Treasury press materials from January 8, 2026 reference the framework and the promised purchasing level. The Associated Press corroborates the 25 million-ton figure and cites a statement by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, giving the claim a basis in contemporaneous reporting.
Update · Jan 23, 2026, 10:44 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. In reality, reporting on the deal indicates an initial arrangement for 25 million metric tons per year over a three-year period, with an initial tranche of 12 million metric tons to begin soon. The core promise—consistent 25 MMT/year purchases for three years—appears to be the stated framework, but progress toward annual 25 MMT purchases depends on ongoing implementation over the three-year window.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting shows that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an agreement whereby China would buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with an initial 12 million metric tons to be purchased by January 2026 (AP News, Oct. 2025). The Treasury press release from January 8, 2026, reiterates the framework and positions it as in effect, marking formal acknowledgment of the arrangement by the U.S. government. This establishes a concrete milestone (12 MMT by January 2026) and a three-year duration for the 25 MMT/year framework.
Completion status: As of January 23, 2026, there is no evidence that China had fulfilled three consecutive years of at least 25 MMT each year. The available public reporting indicates the framework exists and has begun, with an initial 12 MMT tranche and an ongoing commitment to 25 MMT annually for three years. Therefore, the status is best characterized as in_progress rather than complete or failed.
Update · Jan 23, 2026, 08:10 AMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of the framework’s existence comes from public remarks by U.S. officials, including Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and coverage of the agreement as part of a broader trade deal. Independent reporting cites that the deal set a target for China to buy 25 million metric tons per year over three years, though initial purchases have diverged from that target.
What progress exists: Reports indicate that China resumed purchases of U.S. soybeans after a period of reduced buying, with multiple outlets noting a stated goal of 12 million metric tons in the near term and a longer three-year target of 25 million tons per year. The AP and CNBC pieces from late 2025 describe the deal framework and early shipments or commitments, though actual volumes in the first months of implementation were well below the 25 million-ton annual target. Treasury communications explicitly framed the 25 million-ton figure as part of the agreed framework.
Evidence about completion, progress, or setbacks: As of January 2026, there is no public evidence showing China has consistently purchased 25 million metric tons annually for three consecutive years. Public data and reporting through January 2026 show ongoing purchases and political emphasis on agricultural exports, but the 25 million-ton annual benchmark remains unmet so far and appears contingent on evolving negotiations and market conditions. Some coverage notes that initial progress may align with shorter-term targets (e.g., 12 million tons by a near-term deadline), not the full three-year 25 million-ton annual level stated in the framework.
Dates and milestones: October 2025 marked the resumption of soybean purchases by China after the agreement’s announcements; December 2025 reporting highlighted a 12 million-ton near-term target and ongoing commitments to buy U.S. soybeans; January 8, 2026, Treasury communications reiterated the framework’s 25 million-ton annual target for three years. The projected completion date remains the absence of three consecutive years at or above 25 million tons, rather than a specific fixed end date.
Reliability and notes on sources: The most reliable signs come from the U.S. Treasury press materials and major news outlets (AP News, CNBC) reporting on the framework and its targets. The AP piece (Oct 2025) and CNBC analysis (Dec 2025) corroborate the existence of a 25 million-ton target but also indicate current purchases were well short of that level. Given the evolving nature of trade deals and incentives, continued monitoring of official Treasury data and USDA soybeans purchases is essential to assess whether the milestone progresses toward completion.
Update · Jan 23, 2026, 04:43 AMin_progress
Restatement of the claim: The article describes a trade framework under which
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. Evidence of progress: Reports indicate China resumed soybean purchases in late 2025 and committed to at least 25 million metric tons annually starting in 2026, with coverage noting a 12 million ton target achieved for late 2025 and the 25 MMT annual target through 2028. Completion status: The three-year minimum (2026–2028) remains in the future, so completion will be determined after the 2026–2028 period concludes. Dates and milestones: End-2025 purchases reached 12 MMT; the framework envisions 25 MMT annually in 2026–2028, pending annual execution. Source reliability: The assessment relies on Treasury remarks, White House fact sheets, and Reuters reporting, with corroboration from other outlets; ongoing verification is warranted as actual volumes may diverge from targets.
Update · Jan 23, 2026, 02:48 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Treasury remarks from January 8, 2026, attribute this commitment to the framework, stating China will buy at least 25 million metric tons annually for three years (Treasury remarks, Jan 8, 2026). External coverage around late 2025 described a 25 million metric ton annual target through 2028 as part of the broader agreement (AP News, Oct 30, 2025; FarmdocDaily, Nov 2025).
Update · Jan 23, 2026, 01:27 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The Treasury press release asserts that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting from October 2025 states that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced China had agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with an initial 12 million metric tons in the first year; this was covered by AP News and other outlets, indicating the deal was reached but not yet fulfilled. The January 2026 Treasury remarks reiterate the commitment, suggesting the framework remains in place while implementation proceeds.
Current status: As of January 22, 2026, independent verification that China has begun or completed three consecutive years of 25 million metric tons is limited. Some coverage signals the framework exists, but concrete procurement data confirming full execution across three years is not publicly established.
Dates and milestones: The key public moment was late October 2025 when the 25 MMT annual commitment was announced, with Treasury reaffirming the stance in January 2026. No published, independent milestones confirm three full years of purchases to date.
Source reliability note: The claim originates from the Treasury and was echoed by AP News; credible coverage exists, but independent, post-announcement procurement data remains sparse, warranting cautious interpretation given potential policy incentives.
Update · Jan 22, 2026, 10:45 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. The official Treasury release (SB0353, Jan 8, 2026) asserts this commitment as part of the framework, and media coverage notes the arrangement includes a schedule beginning with substantial imports and running for three years. Primary evidence for the commitment comes from the Treasury document itself and contemporaneous statements by U.S. officials cited in subsequent reporting (AP, Reuters).
Update · Jan 22, 2026, 08:27 PMin_progress
What the claim states: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This framing aligns with public statements surrounding a late-2025 trade deal, which outlined an annual purchase target of 25 million metric tons starting in 2026.
Progress evidence: Reuters reported on Jan 20, 2026 that China had already purchased about 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans, meeting a separate near-term target to buy 12 million tons by the end of February, with purchases largely by state traders. The same reporting noted the claim that China had agreed to 25 million metric tons per year over the following three years as part of the broader deal (per White House communications).
Current status and milestones: As of Jan 22, 2026, about half of the 12 million-ton near-term target had materialized, indicating continued progress toward the longer-term 25 million metric tons per year pledge. A White House fact sheet released around Nov 2025 explicitly stated China would buy 25 million metric tons annually in 2026, 2027, and 2028, though actual monthly shipments depend on market dynamics and continued adherence by both sides.
Reliability and sourcing note: The central claim traces to official/near-official statements from the White House and Treasury discussions (Nov 2025), corroborated by Reuters reporting on Jan 20, 2026. Coverage from AP and other outlets in late 2025 also described the 25 million metric ton annual target. Given the high-level nature of the commitment and ongoing shipment cadence, the status remains contingent on future purchases and market conditions, warranting continued monitoring.
Follow-up: I will reassess on 2026-12-31 to confirm whether the three-year annual target of 25 million metric tons was sustained through 2028 and whether any formal completion criteria were satisfied.
Update · Jan 22, 2026, 06:47 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Multiple outlets reported that
Chinese purchases aligned with a framework promising 25 million metric tons annually for a multi-year period, with discussions surrounding 2025–2028 timelines (e.g., AP, CNBC, ABC News, AgWeb). These reports describe statements by U.S. officials or aligned administrations about commitments to increase agricultural purchases, including 25 MMT annually in some formulations. However, exact binding terms and formal verification have varied by outlet and interpretation of the language used in public remarks.
Completion status: There is no publicly released, binding treaty or official government documentation confirming a hard three-year, zero-exceptions purchase obligation of 25 MMT per year. Public coverage suggests stated commitments and anticipated volumes, but coverage emphasizes statements, interim actions, or interpreted frameworks rather than an enforceable contract with concrete milestones. Therefore, the claim remains unverified as a completed, binding obligation.
Dates and milestones: Reported discussions reference 2025–2028 purchase expectations, with specific figures cited in late 2025 coverage. The Treasury page from January 2026 reproduces the framing in remarks but does not, by itself, establish a formal completion or enforceable schedule. The reliability of sources generally aligns with mainstream outlets (AP, CNBC, ABC News) and official Treasury remarks, though interpretations vary on whether the commitments are legally binding.
Source reliability note: Coverage relies on mainstream outlets and official Treasury remarks, which are credible for reporting statements and policy framing. Given the political nature of the framing and lack of an explicit binding instrument disclosed publicly, cautious interpretation is warranted, and the status should be treated as ongoing negotiations or framework commitments rather than a finalized, enforceable agreement.
Update · Jan 22, 2026, 04:18 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, starting with an annual minimum of 25 million metric tons. The claim rests on a statement attributed to Treasury leadership and a speech/remarks around early January 2026.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting from late October 2025 described China agreeing to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually as part of a broader agreement, with initial purchases of about 12 million metric tons to begin before year-end 2025 and the 25 million figure through 2028 (per AP reporting and companion summaries). These pieces frame the deal as a multi-year commitment rather than a formal binding treaty, and they predate the January 2026 Treasury remarks.
Current status and completion prospects: As of 2026-01-22, there is no widely corroborated, independently verifiable update showing formal implementation, ongoing quarterly purchases, or completion of the three-year minimum in every year. Analyses from agricultural journals and wire services in late 2025 describe the framework and milestones (12 million by end-2025; 25 million annually through 2028), but subsequent public confirmations through official channels or trade data into 2026 have not been clearly established in mainstream reporting.
Dates and milestones: Reported milestones include 12 million metric tons to be purchased by the end of 2025, and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. The January 8, 2026 Treasury remarks reiterate the 25 million figure for three years, but the remarks themselves do not provide new verifiable shipment data. Reliability notes: The most concrete milestones come from AP and farm-policy outlets summarizing the contemporaneous announcements; the TreasuryRemarks provide a political-advocacy framing rather than a detailed execution log. Given the lack of independent verification of ongoing purchases in early 2026, the status remains in_progress rather than complete or clearly failed.
Update · Jan 22, 2026, 02:19 PMfailed
Claim restated: A new trade framework allegedly obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. The assertion appears in a Treasury-related article fragment dated 2026-01-08, but there is no corroborated public record of a binding framework or formal commitment of this nature being enacted or announced by credible U.S. or
Chinese authorities.
Evidence of progress or status: I could not locate a credible, independent, or official source confirming such an agreement or any three-year purchase mandate. The Treasury site search returns unrelated policy materials, and the specific 25 million metric-ton figure is echoed only in newer, often speculative or misattributed summaries rather than primary documents. Several third-party outlets circulating the claim lack verifiable provenance and appear to rely on unattributed or dubious sourcing.
Completion status: No verifiable completion or even formal signing of a trade framework with the stated soy procurement obligation has been identified. The absence of corroborating press releases from the U.S. Treasury, the Chinese government, or major Reuters/AP-type outlets undermines the claim’s credibility. Given the current public record, the promise remains unconfirmed and not demonstrated as completed.
Dates and milestones: No credible milestone dates (signing, ratification, or annual purchase schedules) can be confirmed. The only date associated with the claim is a January 2026 article framing, which itself lacks substantiation in primary sources.
Source reliability note: The central source attempting to anchor the claim relies on a Treasury page excerpt that appears embedded in a contested or non-standard report. Independent verification from well-established outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP,
Bloomberg) and official Chinese and Treasury communications is absent. In light of this, the claim should be treated with skepticism pending credible documentary evidence.
Update · Jan 22, 2026, 12:37 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article posits that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years.
Evidence of progress: By January 2026, public reporting indicated the pledge existed and that, to date, about 12 million metric tons had been purchased, suggesting partial progress toward the annual target (Reuters, Jan 20, 2026).
Status of completion: There is no verifiable public confirmation that China has met the full 25 MMT annual target for 2026 or that three consecutive years of 25 MMT have been completed; deliveries and future purchases remain uncertain and contingent on market conditions (Reuters, AP reports).
Dates and milestones: The pledge traces to a late-2025 understanding with a stated annual target beginning in 2026; Reuters notes shipments planned December–May and ongoing purchases as of January 2026, but no completed three-year cycle is documented (Reuters, Jan 20, 2026).
Source reliability: Reuters provides contemporaneous market-trade data and direct reference to the pledge; AP coverage corroborates the leadership-level claim. The Treasury page cited in the metadata is not independently corroborated here and is of lower reliability for progression assessment (Reuters; AP).
Bottom line: As of 2026-01-22, the three-year 25 MMT commitment remains unfulfilled, with partial progress and ongoing purchases noted in early 2026.
Update · Jan 22, 2026, 10:54 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: A new trade framework commits
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The arrangement, announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, is framed as lasting three years starting from the agreement date. AP reporting consolidates this phrasing and notes the commitment explicitly: 25 million metric tons annually for three years. The Treasury corroborates the framework and its three-year horizon in its January 2026 communications.
Evidence of progress: Public accounts indicate an initial tranche of purchases and a framework designed to meet the 25 MMT annual target across the three-year window. AP reported China would begin with 12 million metric tons purchased between late 2025 and January 2026, with the full 25 MMT target promised for each of the three subsequent years. Treasury materials reiterate the framework and its duration, signaling commitments are in motion rather than fully closed out.
Completion status: As of January 2026, the three-year target remains in progress rather than completed. The three-year period would span roughly late 2025 through late 2028, with ongoing purchases required to meet the annual 25 MMT threshold each year. No public source indicates formal closure or cancellation of the framework, but the ongoing nature of the commitment means completion hinges on continued yearly purchases.
Dates and milestones: Agreement date tied to late-2025 announcements. The initial delivery of 12 MMT slated for the period through January 2026 is described, with the broader 25 MMT annual commitment to follow for the next two years. The Treasury communications confirm the three-year duration and ongoing status.
Reliability and sourcing: The claim is supported by high-quality outlets and official government releases. AP is a reputable outlet reporting contemporaneously on the agreement, while the Treasury’s own press material confirms the framework and its duration. Where applicable, Treasury material provides the clearest official framing of the commitment’s terms and timeline.
Incentive context: The arrangement appears to bolster U.S. soybean exports and provide market certainty for farmers, aligning with U.S. policy aims. The incentives for China (secure supplies) and the U.S. (export growth) make ongoing annual purchases crucial to meeting the 25 MMT target, though actual flows depend on market and political factors.
Update · Jan 22, 2026, 08:26 AMin_progress
What the claim states: The article’s claim asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This framing aligns with late-2025 reporting describing a 25 MMT annual target, with an initial smaller uptake to begin in the near term.
What evidence exists that progress has been made: Multiple reputable outlets reported China’s commitment to 25 MMT annually as part of the late-2025 agreement (AP, 2025-10-30; AP follow-ups; CNBC summary citing USDA data). These accounts indicate a path toward the annual target, with an initial 12 MMT tranche to start.
Progress status and milestones: By early 2026, reports indicate shipments resumed and the deal is on track toward the 25 MMT annual pace, though the full three-year completion would span 2026–2028. The completion condition (three consecutive years at or above 25 MMT) has not been reached yet, given the timeline began in late 2025.
Dates and milestones (concrete): The framework lauded in late 2025 envisages 12 MMT in late 2025/early 2026 and 25 MMT per year thereafter for three years. Tracking reports through January 2026 show progress toward the pace, with ongoing verification of annual volumes.
Reliability and incentives of sources: AP and CNBC are consistent with USDA data and Treasury statements; cross-source corroboration from AgWeb and FarmDoc Daily reinforces the framework’s 25 MMT annual target and three-year horizon.
Update · Jan 22, 2026, 04:19 AMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China will buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence progress: Public reporting shows that an agreement including a 25 million metric tons annual purchase was announced in late October 2025, with initial purchases of 12 million tons planned through January 2026 and a three-year duration. AP coverage quotes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirming the three-year period and the 25 million-ton target. Other outlets like Purdue AgWeb and CNBC summarize a phased timeline and note only partial delivery as of late 2025.
Current status: As of January 21, 2026, there is an agreement and a defined three-year framework, but three consecutive annual purchases of 25 million metric tons have not yet occurred. Reported figures indicate that 12 million metric tons were to be purchased early in the period, and early-year shipments had begun, with broader 25 million-ton annual levels anticipated in the subsequent years.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones include the October 2025 announcement of the 25 MMT per year framework, the plan for 12 MMT to be bought through January 2026, and the formal Treasury remarks in January 2026 confirming the three-year duration. Initial coverage notes that only a portion of the target had been realized by the end of 2025, with the full annual level expected in the following years.
Source reliability: Reporting from AP (October 2025), CNBC (December 2025), Purdue AgWeb (November 2025), and Treasury communications (January 2026) provides a cross-check on the framework and timing. AP is a long-established wire service; CNBC and Purdue AgWeb summarize industry implications; the Treasury release provides official framing of the deal’s terms. Taken together, these sources present a cautious, corroborated view of a staged implementation rather than full, immediate completion.
Follow-up: Given the three-year horizon, a follow-up should assess progress on annual 25 MMT purchases at the end of each year (2026, 2027, 2028). Suggested follow-up date: 2028-10-30.
Update · Jan 22, 2026, 02:41 AMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly stated in late 2025 that China would buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with initial reporting indicating China would also commence with a 12 million metric ton purchase in late 2025. The Treasury press materials from January 2026 publicly referenced the framework and the 25 MMT commitment as part of the agreement’s terms (SB0353 materials list the framework language and commitment).
Current status vs. completion: As of January 21, 2026, independent verification of actual, ongoing purchases at the 25 MMT/year level for each of the three years has not been publicly documented in major, high-quality outlets or official
Chinese records. Reporting from late 2025 describes the agreement and near-term purchases, but there is no confirmed, independently verifiable linkage showing full-year fulfillment for 2026 or the subsequent two years. Therefore, the completion condition (three consecutive years with no less than 25 MMT purchase) remains unverified and status is best characterized as ongoing/in_progress.
Dates and milestones: Reported milestones include an initial 12 MMT purchase anticipated by January 2026 and the stated 25 MMT annual commitment for the following three years. The January 8, 2026 Treasury remarks confirm the framework and the annual purchase level, but do not provide a concrete, verifiable year-by-year purchasing ledger for 2026–2028.
Reliability of sources: The core claim originates from a Treasury press release and contemporaneous media coverage (AP, CNBC, etc.) reporting on statements by Treasury Secretary Bessent. While these outlets are reputable, the specific, verifiable execution (actual purchases) beyond the announced framework has not been corroborated by independent data as of 2026-01-21. If follow-up data emerge, they should be weighed against official U.S. and Chinese trade records and independent market data.
Update · Jan 22, 2026, 12:49 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting indicates an agreement was announced in late October 2025, with China pledging 25 million metric tons annually for the three-year period commencing in 2026 and including an initial 12 million metric tons purchase earlier in the term. As of January 21, 2026, reporters described the arrangement as ongoing, with the first year (2026) underway and the three-year commitment set to run through 2028. Evidence suggests progress toward the baseline purchase target, but full three-year fulfillment is still in progress rather than completed.
Update · Jan 21, 2026, 11:24 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The article’s charge is that, under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
What progress exists: The Treasury has publicly asserted this framework in remarks dated January 8, 2026, attributing to China a commitment to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Independent confirmation of actual shipments or a binding, enforceable agreement beyond political statements has not been demonstrated in available public records as of January 21, 2026.
What evidence shows completion, progress, or failure: There is no verified procurement total showing three consecutive years of at least 25 MMT completed or signed into force. Earlier reporting around late 2025 cited a separate figure (e.g., 12 MMT) for near-term purchases under a broader deal, but those figures do not independently confirm the stated 25 MMT annual commitment for three years. The primary source remains the Treasury remarks, with subsequent media coverage referencing the claim rather than documenting enforceable milestones.
Dates and milestones: The Treasury remarks providing the 25 MMT figure were delivered January 8, 2026. Public reporting through January 21, 2026 had not identified verifiable milestones such as a signed framework, purchase schedules, or shipment data validating two of the three annual targets. The absence of independent, verifiable milestones means the status remains unconfirmed rather than completed.
Source reliability and notes: The most authoritative reference is the U.S. Treasury remarks (official government source). Media outlets have reported on related claims or surrounding negotiations but have not independently validated a legally binding commitment or three-year procurement track record. Given incentives in political messaging around trade and agriculture, readers should treat the 25 MMT figure as a stated objective rather than a documented, enforceable obligation at this time.
Follow-up: If available, provide updated Treasury statements or independent customs/import data confirming year-by-year purchases reaching 25 MMT, and any signed framework language, by 2026-12-31.
Update · Jan 21, 2026, 08:49 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Public records show the agreement was announced in early January 2026, with China initially committing to start purchases and then maintain 25 million metric tons annually for three years, per Treasury remarks and related briefings.
AP coverage confirms the commitment explicitly as part of the agreement reached by leaders, with an initial tranche of purchases and a three-year duration for the 25 million-ton annual target.
Evidence of progress includes formal acknowledgment by U.S. officials (Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent) of the 25 million metric ton annual pledge and the arrangement's three-year horizon, plus reporting that China would begin with a substantial initial purchase (around 12 million tons) between now and January 2026.
While the initial shipments are underway, the three-year cadence to reach and sustain 25 million tons per year will unfold over 2026–2028, so no final milestone has yet been achieved as of the current date.
Multiple outlets (AP, CNBC-derived coverage, and Treasury statements) document the framework and its staged rollout.
Update · Jan 21, 2026, 06:43 PMin_progress
Claim restated: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years, beginning with an initial 12 million metric tons by January 2026. Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates the framework envisions 25 MMT annually for three years, with 12 MMT expected by January 2026, as described by Treasury remarks and AP coverage. Current status: By 2026-01-21, the initial 12 MMT tranche was anticipated, but independent verification of the full three-year intake (2026–2028) is not yet evident in the sources reviewed. Reliability note: The claim is grounded in official Treasury remarks and AP reporting; however, lacks independently verifiable quarterly totals for the entire three-year period, leaving the status as in_progress rather than complete.
Update · Jan 21, 2026, 04:15 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Progress and evidence: Late-2025 reporting indicated China would buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with an initial 12 million metric tons expected by early 2026 (AP). By December 2025, sources indicated the 25 MMT target was on the table, but actual purchases toward that full annual target were not yet verified as complete (CNBC). Current status: As of 2026-01-21, there is no independently verified confirmation that China has begun or will reliably deliver 25 MMT per year for three consecutive years; the evidence points to ongoing progress and near-term milestones rather than final completion. Reliability note: The key claims originated from Treasury remarks and major outlets (AP, CNBC); while they document progress and commitments, they do not provide a confirmed, year-by-year purchase ledger for the three-year window.
Update · Jan 21, 2026, 02:20 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting confirms the framework’s target of 25 million metric tons per year, with official linkage to statements from Treasury officials and coverage of the agreement's terms. The initiating element is that China would begin by purchasing a first tranche and then sustain annual purchases of 25 million tons for three years.
There is evidence of progress toward the promised purchases. Coverage describes China agreeing to buy 25 million metric tons annually as part of an agreement reached by its leaders, with a first tranche of 12 million metric tons to be purchased by January 2026. Treasury remarks attach formal legitimacy to the framework, and reporting from AP corroborates the overall target.
As of 2026-01-21, the deal remains in the implementation phase and not yet completed. The initial 12 million metric tons were slated for purchase by January 2026, with the onward plan of 25 million tons per year for three years still ahead. No credible source indicates the framework has been canceled or materially altered by late January 2026.
Key milestones include the January 2026 start for initial purchases and a three-year horizon that would run through 2028 if terms hold. The completion condition—China purchasing no less than 25 million metric tons annually for three consecutive years—remains in progress and is contingent on continued adherence by both parties. Overall, the available reporting supports progress toward the target but does not confirm final fulfillment.
Update · Jan 21, 2026, 12:28 PMin_progress
What the claim states: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The verbatim line appears in a Treasury remarks document from January 8, 2026, attributed to a speech by Secretary Scott Bessent, and portrays an explicit three-year, 25 MMT annual purchase commitment. This framing suggests a formal, enforceable procurement target tied to a broader framework.
What progress exists: Independent reporting through late 2025 and early 2026 shows China increasing purchases of U.S. soybeans and recording sizable shipments in late 2025 and into 2026. Reuters reported China’s ongoing soybean purchases and a record 2025 import level, with continued buying activity in January 2026 as Sinograin and other buyers sourced U.S. soybeans. However, these reports describe general import activity rather than a standing, codified 25 MMT-per-year obligation for three years.
Evidence of completion, progress, or failure: There is no widely corroborated, legally binding document or treaty article confirming a formal three-year, 25 MMT annual binding purchase obligation. The Treasury remarks quote a framework and promise, but multiple independent outlets do not confirm a signed, enforceable agreement of that specific target. Progress appears as ongoing purchases and renewed U.S.-China agricultural trade activity rather than a completed, verified commitment.
Dates and milestones: October 30, 2025 appears in various outlets as discussion of a 25 MMT-per-year arrangement; January 6–14, 2026 Reuters coverage details continued U.S. soybean purchases by China and record 2025 imports, indicating real-world purchases but not necessarily the claimed fixed annual quantity. The Treasury piece itself is dated January 8, 2026 and frames the target as part of a framework, not as a independently verifiable completion.
Source reliability note: The core claim originates from a Treasury remarks document, which may reflect a political framing or aspirational pledge rather than a contemporaneous press-confirmed treaty. Independent reporting from Reuters and Associated Press corroborates that China has been buying U.S. soybeans, but does not substantiate a formal three-year, 25 MMT commitment. Given the discrepancy between the claim language and independent verification, treat the claim as unconfirmed in its binding form at this time.
Update · Jan 21, 2026, 12:04 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress shows that senior U.S. officials publicly framed a deal in late October 2025 in which China would buy 25 million metric tons annually, with an initial 12 million metric tons to be purchased by January 2026 and the remainder through 2028 (based on multiple outlets citing Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House materials). Official Treasury remarks in January 2026 reiterate the 25 million-ton annual figure as part of the framework, but they frame it as a political/administrative commitment rather than a standalone, legally binding treaty. Independent reporting has described the arrangement as a negotiated trade commitment announced by the administration, with subsequent coverage noting a phased start and longer-term targets through 2028. Reliability concerns: the most direct evidence of a binding commitment remains statements and framing by officials and press materials, not a standalone treaty or enforceable contract; several reports treat the arrangement as a political undertaking rather than a court-enforceable obligation. The status as of January 2026 thus appears to be a progressing commitment rather than a completed, fully verifiable implementation for three full years.
Update · Jan 21, 2026, 10:33 AMin_progress
What the claim states: a new trade framework would require
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The claim appears in Treasury remarks and subsequent press coverage as a binding, multi-year minimum purchase pledge. Verification hinges on official delivery data from China and downstream confirmations rather than sole statements of intent.
Update · Jan 21, 2026, 04:23 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. The claim relies on a formal commitment described as binding for three consecutive years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates a framework was announced in late 2025, including an initial purchase of about 12 million metric tons in 2025 and a stated pledge for 25 million metric tons annually in the following three years (2026–2028). Multiple reputable trade and agricultural policy outlets summarized the arrangement as returning China’s annual soybean purchases toward pre-tAR levels, with 25 MMT per year cited as the ongoing target (e.g., Farmdoc Daily, AGWeb, The Gazette).
Current status: As of January 2026, the deal appears to be active but not yet completed for the full three-year period; purchases for 2026–2028 are expected under the commitment, with reporting indicating the 12 MMT in 2025 and the 25 MMT annual target for the subsequent years. No verifiable, contemporaneous government press release confirms a legally binding three-year obligation in the exact phrasing quoted, and coverage relies on policy analyses and trade reporting rather than a single definitive primary source.
Key dates and milestones: October 30, 2025 – reports describe China agreeing to buy 25 MMT annually for three years starting in 2026, with 12 MMT purchased in 2025 (reported by trade outlets). November 2025 – analyses discuss the impact and feasibility of the 25 MMT annual target; late-2025 coverage frames the agreement as ongoing. January 2026 – coverage notes progress and ongoing implementation toward the 2026–2028 period, without a confirmed final settlement date.
Reliability and incentives: Coverage comes from reputable outlets and agricultural policy analyses, with authors noting incentives in U.S. agriculture and politics surrounding trade with China. The strongest caution is that some summaries rely on government statements or White House–aligned analyses; cross-checking with independent agricultural economists and trade data is advisable for a precise, legally binding read. If the claim hinges on a specific formal contract, that document has not been located in primary government releases during January 2026.
Follow-up note: If a definitive, binding text or official bilateral agreement is released, a follow-up should verify the exact commitment language, implementation milestones, and shipment-by-shipment progress through 2026–2028 (target follow-up date: 2028-12-31).
Update · Jan 21, 2026, 02:37 AMin_progress
Restated claim: A new trade framework commits
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: Late-2025 reporting indicated China and
the United States reached an agreement to buy 25 million tons annually for the three-year window, with initial shipments around 12 million tons anticipated in 2025 and a ramp to 25 million in subsequent years (AP News; CNBC; farmdocdaily).
Current status: As of January 2026, the framework had been described publicly and repeated in Treasury remarks, but there is no final, independently verifiable enforcement mechanism documented; completion depends on ongoing implementation over the three-year period.
Milestones: Reported milestones include an initial purchase level and the stated target of 25 million tons annually for the following two years, subject to market conditions and continued execution of the agreement (AP News; CNBC; farmdocdaily).
Source reliability: Coverage from major outlets and academic-leaning analyses supports the existence of the agreement; however, the public record does not show a formal, enforceable contract with concrete annual purchase verifications for every year to date.
Follow-up note: Continued monitoring of official Treasury statements and independent trade data will clarify whether the 25 million ton/year target is met each year over the three-year window.
Update · Jan 21, 2026, 12:55 AMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years starting in 2026. Evidence of progress: Reuters reports China bought about 12 million metric tons by January 2026, fulfilling a near-term target by end-February 2026 as part of a late-October trade truce; U.S. officials characterized the 25 MMT as an annual commitment for three years, though the exact binding nature of that commitment is not fully detailed in public documents. Status and milestones: As of 2026-01-20, there is public reporting of a 12 MMT achievement and stated 25 MMT annual target, but no widely disclosed formal contract or enforcement mechanism publicly codifying the three-year obligation. Reliability: Reuters and AP coverage are reputable, but the legal status of the 25 MMT pledge remains unclear in public records, suggesting the claim is technically in progress rather than completed. Overall assessment: The stated target is being pursued and partially realized in the near term, but the three-year, 25 MMT annual obligation is not demonstrably complete based on publicly available documents.
Update · Jan 20, 2026, 10:34 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The framework was described by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as part of a China agreement, with the stated annual floor of 25 million metric tons for three years.
Evidence of progress: Independent reporting in late 2025 indicated China had agreed to open markets and to purchase 25 million metric tons annually, but the early progress described did not show full three-year compliance. AP reported on Oct 30, 2025 that China had agreed to the 25 million metric tons annual purchases as part of discussions with
Chinese leadership and Treasury officials. By December 2025, outlets including CNBC reported that China was on track to buy around 12 million metric tons by the end of February 2026, indicating partial progress rather than full adherence to the 25 million target.
Current status and milestones: As of Jan 20, 2026, there is no publicly verified evidence that China has begun or committed to a sustained 25 million metric tons per year for three consecutive years beyond the initial statements. The Treasury remarks (SB0353) reiterate the framework, but do not confirm completion of the three-year pledge. Notable milestones cited by outlets focus on initial openness and incremental purchases rather than the full three-year annual minimum.
Reliability and context of sources: The primary claim originates from a U.S. Treasury remarks document (SB0353, Jan 8, 2026) and was echoed by contemporaneous reporting from AP and financial news outlets. Coverage from AP (Oct 2025) and CNBC (Dec 2025) points to partial progress rather than full adherence to the target. Given uncertainties about enforceability and scope, the reporting remains cautious and progress is described as ongoing rather than complete.
Reliance on incentives and neutrality: Coverage notes a policy framework tied to
American agricultural interests and broader trade messaging. Observers should consider potential incentives on both sides—U.S. farmers seeking guaranteed demand and China balancing market access with strategic considerations—when evaluating the likelihood of sustained, year-by-year purchases reaching the 25 million metric tons target.
Update · Jan 20, 2026, 08:37 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts a new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence from credible outlets indicates the pledge exists and has begun implementation, with initial purchases in early 2026. AP and Reuters report the framework’s 25 MMT/year commitment for three years and note ongoing purchases or underway shipments toward the annual target.
Progress to date: Public statements from Treasury officials describe the three-year commitment, and early 2026 activity shows China buying substantial volumes, including roughly 12 MMT completed by late January 2026. State actors Sinograin and COFCO are cited as buyers; shipments were planned December–May, with continued auctions to manage storage.
Completion status: As of 2026-01-20, the full annual 25 MMT target for each of the three years has not yet been met; the first year shows partial progress toward the goal. The completion condition remains in_progress, contingent on sustained annual purchases over the 2026–2028 window.
Dates and milestones: The Treasury SB0353 press release (2026-01-08) frames the three-year horizon; AP (2026-01-20) and Reuters (2026-01-20) confirm early-year purchases and the 25 MMT pledge. The key milestone is year-end totals to confirm whether each year reaches 25 MMT.
Source reliability note: Key claims come from the U.S. Treasury and major outlets (AP, Reuters). The combination of official framing with independent trade reporting supports a cautious interpretation of ongoing progress toward the stated annual target.
Update · Jan 20, 2026, 07:13 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The Treasury press release from January 8, 2026 explicitly quotes the framework and the 25 million-ton figure for a three-year span. Subsequent reporting confirms 12 million metric tons were purchased by late January 2026 and that China had agreed to 25 million tons annually in the following years, but there was no public
Chinese official confirmation of binding three-year annual purchases as of January 20, 2026.
What the claim promised or stated: The claim promises a binding, three-year annual minimum of 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans to be purchased by China each year under the framework.
What evidence exists that progress has been made: U.S. officials announced an initial 12 million metric ton target for late 2025 and the start of 25 million tons per year in 2026–2028. By January 20, 2026, Reuters reported about 12 million tons purchased by China, with traders noting the 25 million-ton annual commitment as a next step.
Any evidence that the promise was completed, remains in progress, or failed: The 12 million-ton achievement is a concrete milestone, but the three-year, 25 million-ton annual obligation has not been publicly confirmed by Chinese authorities, so the promise remains in_progress rather than completed or clearly failed.
Relevant dates and milestones: January 8, 2026 – Treasury press release announcing the framework and 25 MMT commitment; January 20, 2026 – Reuters reporting that roughly 12 MMT had been purchased with an expectation of 25 MMT annually in subsequent years.
Source reliability: The core claim traces to a U.S. Treasury press release and contemporaneous Reuters reporting; both are high-quality sources. Given the incentives in trade negotiations, continued verification from Chinese official channels would be needed for final validation.
Update · Jan 20, 2026, 04:23 PMin_progress
What the claim states: The article asserts a new trade framework obligates
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years starting in 2026.
Evidence of progress: China resumed U.S. soybean purchases after late-October talks, with initial deliveries totaling about 12 million metric tons planned for shipment between December and May, and a pledge that would reach 25 million metric tons per year for the following three years.
Current status: As of January 20, 2026, the 25 million-ton-per-year commitment has not yet been demonstrated as fully fulfilled for all three years; the 25 million figure remains a pledged target tied to the framework, with near-term progress showing a 12 million-ton milestone.
Milestones and dates: The late-October 2025 truce framed the expectation of 25 million tons annually for three years, with shipments through early 2026 and continued purchases depending on market conditions. The Treasury remarks (January 8, 2026) frame the framework but do not provide a completed annual tally.
Source reliability: Reuters and AP are reputable outlets corroborating the progression toward the 25 million-ton target; the Treasury press material provides official framing of the framework. Taken together, the evidence indicates a pledged framework with partial near-term progress, not a final, three-year completion yet.
Update · Jan 20, 2026, 02:24 PMin_progress
Restating the claim: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Late-2025 reporting indicated China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with an initial 12 million metric tons to be purchased by January 2026. Treasury remarks in early January 2026 publicly framed the arrangement as a three-year commitment to 25 MMT per year, aligning with AP coverage from that period.
Current status: As of 2026-01-20, the framework exists and implementation is underway, but independent verification that all three years have reached 25 MMT annually is not yet available given the early stage of execution.
Milestones and dates: Near-term milestone includes the 12 MMT deployment by January 2026. The three-year cycle targets 25 MMT in each of 2026–2028, assuming adherence to annual purchase targets.
Source reliability: The claim is based on a Treasury press release and AP reporting; both are reputable sources for official announcements and subsequent coverage, though full year-by-year verification remains pending until after each year concludes.
Follow-up: A check around early 2027 and again in early 2028 would help confirm whether the 25 MMT-per-year target was met in all three years of the cycle.
Update · Jan 20, 2026, 12:27 PMin_progress
What the claim states: Under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The claim mirrors official representations tied to a White House fact sheet and subsequent Treasury remarks, which describe a commitment of 25 MMT per year through 2028. Evidence from multiple official and reputable outlets supports the existence of the framework and its target level of purchases (25 MMT annually).
Progress to date: A White House fact sheet dated November 1, 2025, and follow-up reporting indicate China would buy 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 MMT annually in 2026–2028. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly reiterated the 25 MMT annual target in January 2026 remarks. Early 2026 data thus show formal commitments and initiation of the purchase schedule, with the full three-year cycle set to run through 2028.
Current status vs. completion condition: The three-year completion condition (three consecutive years with at least 25 MMT purchased) has not yet occurred, as only the initial year (2026) has begun. The framework is in progress, with 2026 serving as the first year toward the 2026–2028 target. No evidence shows the framework being canceled or renegotiated; rather, available sources indicate continued implementation.
Dates and milestones: November 1, 2025 — White House fact sheet sets out the 12 MMT in 2025 and 25 MMT annually in 2026–2028. October 30, 2025 — prominent outlets report the 25 MMT commitment as part of the deal. January 8, 2026 — Treasury press exposure reiterates the three-year 25 MMT framework. January 20, 2026 — current date, status remains the framework in effect and progressing.
Source reliability note: The core claims are supported by a White House fact sheet and Treasury remarks, with corroborating coverage from AP and other reputable outlets. While some outlets reported the agreement in the lead-up to 2026, the official framing from the White House provides the clearest, most authoritative articulation of the commitment. Overall, sources consistently present a policy-driven purchase target rather than an informal promise.
Update · Jan 20, 2026, 10:38 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting confirms a 25 million metric tons annual commitment, with an initial tranche of 12 million metric tons to be purchased by early 2026, and a three-year duration for the pledge (apparent timing linked to late-2025 discussions). Coverage from AP and other outlets identifies the framework terms and the-year-by-year expectation, though exact implementation milestones can vary in interpretation given diplomatic framing and market conditions. While the Treasury press page referenced in the prompt contains related material, its reliability for the precise commitment is contingent on corroboration from independent sources. On balance, as of January 2026, progress toward the framework appears underway, with the 25 MMT target identified as the ongoing goal rather than a completed, 100% executed transfer yet. Independent reporting (AP) provides the clearest contemporaneous account of the deal terms, while U.S. government pages reflect framing and official announcements.
Update · Jan 20, 2026, 08:02 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years, starting with a preliminary buy around early 2026. Progress evidence: Public reporting references a framework and an initial 12 million metric tons to be shipped by January 2026, followed by 25 million metric tons annually for the following two years (AP, 2026; AP summary of Treasury remarks). Completion status: There is acknowledgment of the framework and annual quantities, but independent verification that China has consistently met 25 million metric tons each year for all three years is not publicly documented as of 2026-01-19. Dates and milestones: Key milestones cited include the 12 MMT initial purchase by January 2026 and the three-year cadence of 25 MMT annually, with completion contingent on future trade data through 2026–2028 (AP, 2026; FarmDoc Daily, 2025). Source reliability: The core claims derive from Treasury remarks and AP reporting, which are reputable, but lack a transparent, year-by-year fulfillment ledger publicly published; readers should treat completion as contingent on verifiable shipment data (Treasury SB0353; AP News).
Update · Jan 20, 2026, 04:12 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting confirms a framework and an annual 25 MMT commitment, but initial purchases have fallen short of that level in early 2026. AP reported the 25 MMT annual commitment lasting three years; CNBC documented China resuming purchases but not yet hitting the 25 MMT level by December 2025; Treasury reiterated the framework in Jan 2026 without confirming full-year fulfillment. Overall, the pledge exists and progress is underway, but the three-year 25 MMT target remains in progress as of January 2026.
Update · Jan 20, 2026, 02:14 AMin_progress
Claim restated: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence from public reporting indicates China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually, with an initial tranche of purchases and a three-year duration (AP News, 2025-10-30). The Treasury’s January 8, 2026 press-page remarks reiterate the framework’s 25 million metric-ton annual pledge, but there is limited public detail on the exact delivery milestones for each year beyond the stated commitment. The reliability of the source material is moderate, with AP providing contemporaneous reporting and the Treasury page offering official framing of the framework.
Update · Jan 20, 2026, 12:23 AMin_progress
Summary of the claim: A January 8, 2026 Treasury remarks claim that under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. The claim is presented as a promised outcome within the speaker’s policy framing. It is not described as a legally binding treaty or enforceable contract in the source text, but rather as a stated objective within the remarks.
Evidence of progress: The primary available evidence is the Treasury remarks that state the figure of 25 million metric tons as part of an asserted framework outcome. There is no contemporaneous public record of a formal, binding agreement or implementation milestones detailing those purchases. Independent corroboration from other high-quality outlets confirming an actual framework or concrete purchase commitments appears absent in the accessible public record as of 2026-01-19.
Assessment of completion status: As of the current date, there is no verifiable evidence that China has entered a formal agreement obligating fixed yearly purchases of 25 million metric tons for three years, nor any confirmed shipments meeting that exact threshold. Given the lack of corroboration and the absence of documented milestones beyond the remarks, the claim remains unverified and uncompleted at this time. The status is best characterized as in_progress pending more reliable, independent confirmation.
Dates and milestones: The claim cites a three-year purchase framework beginning after the agreement, with a projected completion date not specified. The Treasury remarks themselves are dated January 8, 2026. No subsequent public milestones or enforcement details have been located in reputable sources to confirm progress or completion.
Reliability and sources: The core source is a Treasury press-remarks page (SB0353) from January 8, 2026, which includes the claim within a political address. There is a risk the figure reflects promotional framing rather than verifiable policy implementation. Absent corroboration from independent institutions, trade data, or formal agreements, the claim should be treated with skepticism regarding its current enforceability or realizable progress.
Update · Jan 19, 2026, 10:21 PMin_progress
Restatement of the claim: The article asserted that under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: AP reporting (Oct. 2025) quoted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying China would buy 25 million metric tons annually as part of the agreement. A White House fact sheet (Nov. 2025) outlined a staged path: 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028, implying ongoing implementation. Additional coverage in December 2025 and subsequent analyses corroborate the 25 MMT annual target through 2028. Completion status: The framework appears active, with a three-year annual minimum of 25 MMT in place through 2028, not a completed action by 2026-01-19. Key dates/milestones: 12 MMT by January 2026; 25 MMT annually through 2028. Source reliability: Primary reliance on AP reporting and the White House fact sheet; corroboration from CNBC and Purdue AG analyses supports the timeline and targets.
Update · Jan 19, 2026, 08:18 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China must buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Multiple non-government sources describe an agreement or understanding reached by late 2025, rather than a formally codified treaty. The open-status of any binding obligation remains unclear in publicly accessible records.
Update · Jan 19, 2026, 06:38 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: A new trade framework commits
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. The Treasury press page and contemporaneous reporting framed the commitment as part of a three-year agreement.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting from late 2025 through early 2026 indicates the agreement was announced and that China agreed to the 25 MMT annual target for three years, with Treasury remarks in January 2026 reiterating the framework.
Current status: As of January 19, 2026, there is explicit public acknowledgment of the 25 MMT annual target, but independent, year-by-year verification (three consecutive purchases of at least 25 MMT) is not yet confirmed by verifiable shipment data or official enforcement milestones.
Timeline and milestones: Initial announcements occurred in Oct 2025, with January 2026 remarks detailing the framework. Concrete, yearly purchase confirmations beyond initial reports remain unverified in public data.
Source reliability and incentives: The primary source is an official Treasury remarks page, supplemented by major outlets (AP, CNBC). Given potential lag in trade data, reliance on official cargo data and USDA/treasury confirmations is needed for a definitive conclusion.
Update · Jan 19, 2026, 04:15 PMin_progress
Restated claim: A new U.S.-China trade framework commits
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This promise was attributed to a triad of statements in late 2025 and echoed by U.S. Treasury communications in early 2026. The framework reportedly ties three years of shipments to a floor of 25 million metric tons annually.
Evidence of progress: Independent reporting in October 2025 quoted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent asserting that China would buy 12 million metric tons in the current season and commit to a minimum of 25 million tons per year for the following three years, as part of a leaders’ agreement. AP referenced the arrangement as part of coverage around the China-U.S. discussions and the broader trade framework.
Current status (as of 2026-01-19): The Treasury press release dated January 8, 2026 formally describes the framework and the 25 million-ton annual commitment for three years. AP’s reporting confirms the 25 million-ton figure and situates the agreement as lasting three years starting with the near-term purchases. Taken together, the arrangement appears to be active and binding for the three-year window, though ongoing implementation and annual execution remain contingent on market conditions and compliance.
Dates and milestones: Initial shipments were described as starting with 12 million metric tons to be purchased between late 2025 and January 2026. The explicit three-year commitment to 25 million metric tons annually is framed as the core milestone of the agreement. Additional milestones would include year-by-year fulfillment, subject to annual follow-through and reporting by authorities and major outlets.
Source reliability and note on incentives: The claim stems from an official Treasury press release and corroborating reporting from AP News. The Treasury release provides the formal framing, while AP anchors the numbers in contemporaneous interviews and statements. As with any trade-related commitments, incentives include political signaling for U.S. farmers and heightened leverage in U.S.-China trade talks; these incentives can influence both fulfillment and public interpretation of the framework.
Update · Jan 19, 2026, 02:22 PMin_progress
What the claim states: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans each year for three years.
Evidence of progress: Reports in late 2025 indicated China committed to buying 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with initial purchases beginning under the agreement. Treasury remarks in early 2026 reiterated the framework and annual target.
Current status: As of January 19, 2026, the framework appears in effect and ongoing, with a three-year commitment that would extend through 2028 if fully honored. No credible public disclosures have indicated termination or cancellation.
Key dates and milestones: October 2025 public acknowledgment of the 25 MMT annual target; December 2025–January 2026 initiation or continuation of purchases; January 8, 2026 Treasury remarks reaffirming the commitment. Ongoing market reporting would be needed to verify year-by-year fulfillment.
Reliability note: Coverage from AP News and official Treasury materials supports the existence and status of the agreement, but exact shipment-by-shipment verification requires continued independent market data.
Update · Jan 19, 2026, 12:24 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Public reporting indicates the framework/pledge was announced in late 2025, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent describing a three-year commitment to 25 million metric tons annually.
Evidence at the start of 2026 shows some purchases have occurred, but not at the promised 25 million per year level yet; initial disclosures described a start-up phase and year-one purchases that were well short of the target.
Credible outlets note the situation remains incomplete and progress toward the 25 million annual target is ongoing, with mixed signals about timing and volume.
Update · Jan 19, 2026, 10:36 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The claim is anchored to statements reported by U.S. officials that China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually as part of a leadership-level agreement. Evidence of progress includes public reporting that an agreement was reached in late 2025 and that U.S. officials publicly described a 25 MMT annual purchase for three years. However, there is no clear, independently verified record showing China has lawfully implemented or is currently meeting these yearly purchase commitments as of January 2026.
Update · Jan 19, 2026, 08:02 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting through late 2025 indicated China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually for the three-year span, with initial purchases reportedly beginning at 12 million metric tons in late 2025 as part of the arrangement. Major outlets cited statements from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and White House/administration briefings describing the framework (AP, 2025; CNBC, 2025).
Current status and milestones: As of January 18, 2026, the three-year commitment to purchase 25 MMT per year has not yet reached its full three-year window, so it cannot be judged completed. The reported first-year quantity of 12 MMT and the stated annual target form the basis of ongoing progress, with continued purchases required in 2026 and 2027 to meet the promised level. The completion condition—three consecutive years of at least 25 MMT—remains in the future.
Reliability and context: The principal sources trace the claim to official remarks and major business outlets (AP, CNBC) reporting statements by Treasury officials and White House communications. The Treasury press-briefing page update (Jan 8, 2026) repeats the framework language but does not independently verify annual volumes beyond what was publicly announced in 2025. Given the political and policy-driven nature of the claim, interpretation should consider potential shifting incentives in trade negotiations and market responses.
Notes on follow-up: Monitor quarterly trade data and official Treasury/White House statements for updates on actual U.S. soybean exports to China and any changes to the annual purchase commitments or timeline. A concrete confirmation of three consecutive 25 MMT years would mark completion; absence of such confirmation maintains the status as in_progress.
Update · Jan 19, 2026, 03:58 AMin_progress
Claim restated: A new trade framework purportedly obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence exists that an agreement was reached and implementation began: AP News reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China would buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with an initial tranche of 12 million metric tons to be purchased by the end of January 2026, and CNBC analyses corroborated a multi-year commitment beginning in late 2025. Market commentary also noted that 12 million metric tons were expected in late 2025 and that purchases resumed in late 2025 after earlier reductions.
Update · Jan 19, 2026, 01:58 AMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence of progress: Reports from late 2025 describe China agreeing to elevated soybean purchases as part of the deal, with Treasury officials stating 25 MMT annually through 2028. Official framing: Treasury remarks on January 8, 2026 reiterate the 25 MMT-per-year commitment for three years within the framework, indicating the arrangement is active but not publicly audited as completed. Independent verification: Media coverage corroborates the framework but does not provide a formal, verifiable year-by-year delivery ledger released by a neutral party. Status as of 2026-01-18: The commitment remains active and intended to run for three years, with no publicly confirmed completion date or year-end fulfillment ledger. Reliability note: The core claim relies on official Treasury statements and contemporaneous reporting from AP, CNBC, and AgWeb; absence of an independently verifiable contract ledger means the claim is not yet conclusively proven or completed.
Update · Jan 19, 2026, 12:05 AMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The arrangement was described as lasting three years, with an initial period of deliveries and a commitment to 25 MMT annually thereafter. The claim traces to statements by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and a Treasury remarks context, framed within U.S. messaging on agricultural exports.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates the 25 MMT annual target was part of an agreement reached in late 2025, with China initially purchasing about 12 MMT and then moving toward 25 MMT annually for the following three years. Coverage from AP News and NBC News-cited summaries through December 2025 and January 2026 places the deal in the implementation phase rather than as a completed milestone.
Evidence of status: As of early 2026, reputable outlets describe the arrangement as in progress, not completed, with the three-year window underway. The Treasury release reiterates the figure, but there is no documented completion of three full years within the current date.
Dates and milestones: The key milestones are the 12 MMT initial purchases in late 2025 and 25 MMT annually for 2026–2028, with ongoing purchases tracked by U.S. data. No end-date or formal completion has been publicly announced as of 2026-01-18.
Source reliability note: The analysis relies on AP News, CNBC coverage, and the Treasury press release, all of which are reputable outlets or official government communications. Taken together, they support a status of in-progress rather than completed as of the current date.
Update · Jan 18, 2026, 10:05 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The article claims a new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: Treasury remarks (Jan 8, 2026) frame the commitment as ongoing, and AP reporting (Jan 2026) confirms the framework and initial purchases began, with reports noting a 12 million metric ton tranche early in 2026. Current status: As of mid-January 2026, there is indication of implementation toward the 25 MMT annual target, but no public confirmation that China has met 25 MMT for three consecutive years yet. Dates/milestones: The framework is public as of January 2026, with initial purchases and subsequent assertions that 25 MMT annually should be reached over the three-year window; later coverage through December 2025 described 12 MMT in the near term and a path to 25 MMT annually. Source reliability: Official Treasury statements provide the framework; AP and CNBC contextually corroborate progress and caveat timing, suggesting ongoing implementation rather than completed fulfillment.
Update · Jan 18, 2026, 08:02 PMin_progress
The claim restates that a new trade framework commits
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. The Treasury press release from January 8, 2026 reiterates this commitment as part of remarks, but it does not provide verifiable evidence of actual purchases beginning in 2026. Initial reporting from October 2025 attributed the figure to statements by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and described an agreement reached by leaders; those reports described intent rather than confirmed shipments.
Update · Jan 18, 2026, 06:22 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: Treasury remarks and major reporting (AP, 2026-01-08) indicate China agreed to a three-year framework with an initial 12 million metric tons by early 2026, followed by 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. Additional outlets (CNBC, AgWeb, Yahoo) corroborate the 25 MMT annual target as part of the deal and outline the staged rollout beginning with a 12 MMT tranche. Completion status: As of 2026-01-18, the commitment is underway, with the 12 MMT start already scheduled and the 25 MMT annual purchases to be fulfilled in 2026–2028; no evidence shows the deal being completed or cancelled. Key dates and milestones: 12 MMT to be purchased by January 2026; annual 25 MMT commitments through 2028, per sources. Source reliability: Reports come from AP, CNBC, AgWeb, Yahoo Finance, and the U.S. Treasury, providing cross-checked, nonpartisan coverage of the stated framework.
Notes on incentives and neutrality: Coverage emphasizes restoring agricultural trade flows and signaling market access rather than partisan framing; incentives cited align with U.S. agricultural interests and continued China imports. Follow-up should track actual shipment data and any official confirmations from
Chinese authorities or U.S. agencies as milestones are reached.
Update · Jan 18, 2026, 04:01 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting indicates an agreement was reached in late 2025 in which China would buy 12 million metric tons in 2025 and 25 million metric tons per year for the following three years, starting in 2026. The Treasury secretary’s remarks and subsequent media coverage anchored this figure to a formal understanding between the two governments (AP News, 2025; Yahoo Finance, 2025).
As of January 2026, reporting suggests the arrangement is being implemented and remains in progress, with the 2025 short-term allocation fulfilled and the 2026–2028 yearly purchases planned or underway. Analysts noted the framework was designed to stabilize U.S. soybean demand and prices by securing multi-year purchase commitments (FarmDocDaily, 2025; AgWeb, 2025).
There is no official, legally binding renewal date published beyond the three-year horizon, and consensus among outlets is that progress depends on ongoing adherence by China and continuity of the political settlement backing the deal (AP News, 2025; Economy Times/Yahoo Finance, 2025).
Early milestones reported include a 12 MMT first-year shipment and the transition to the 25 MMT annual level in the following years (AP News, 2025).
Reliability assessment: coverage comes from mainstream outlets and industry-focused analyses, with AP News and university-affiliated farm policy analyses providing parallel framing. While the centerpiece figure (25 MMT annually) appears consistently cited, the exact legal form and enforcement mechanism of the trade framework are less clear in public records, suggesting ongoing negotiations or non-binding understanding rather than a rigid treaty (FarmDocDaily, 2025; AgWeb, 2025).
Follow-up note: the completion window would mature by 2028 if the three-year cycle is counted from 2026 onward. A concrete update on actual 2026–2028 purchases and any revisions to the framework should be revisited at year-end 2026 or early 2027 to confirm continued compliance (AP News, 2025; AgWeb, 2025).
Update · Jan 18, 2026, 02:22 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. The agreement is described as lasting three years with an initial tranche to begin before 2026.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates China agreed to a 25 MMT annual purchase as part of a 2025 agreement. AP coverage notes an initial 12 MMT purchase window through January 2026, with the 25 MMT annual target to follow under the three-year framework.
Current status: As of January 2026, the framework is in the early implementation phase. There is no public record of cancellation, but year-by-year fulfillment beyond the initial tranche has not been independently verified.
Key milestones and dates: The window for the initial 12 MMT tranche is by January 2026. The three-year commitment to 25 MMT annually would cover 2026–2028, per reporting on the agreement. Independent verification of full annual totals beyond the initial tranche remains limited.
Source reliability and balance: The most authoritative details come from AP reporting and Treasury remarks, which are high-quality sources for this topic. Cross-checks from other reputable outlets corroborate the framework but vary in emphasis on specifics.
Conclusion: The claim remains plausible and is currently in progress, with an initial tranche delivered and the three-year commitment in place, pending full annual fulfillment in the subsequent years.
Update · Jan 18, 2026, 12:07 PMin_progress
Brief restatement of the claim: The article asserts a new trade framework obligates
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting through late 2025 described China’s agreement to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually as part of a leaders’ deal, with initial transactions and commitments reportedly set for 2025 and the following years (e.g., 12 million tons in late 2025 and 25 million tons per year thereafter) (AP News, CNBC, Farmdoc Daily). These sources indicate movement toward the stated purchasing obligation, but do not confirm full, unconditional compliance for every year as of January 2026.
Current status and milestones: By January 2026, the framework appears to be in the early implementation phase, with public reporting pointing to agreed volumes for 2025 and ongoing expectations for 2026–2028. There is no independently verifiable, official government certification that the three-year, 25 MMT annual target has been completed or strictly enforced year by year, and the Treasury/article context around the claim remains from political communications rather than an unambiguous, enforceable treaty text.
Dates and milestones: Reported milestones include China agreeing to purchase 25 MMT annually in the period following late-2025 negotiations, with some outlets noting 12 MMT in the final months of 2025 and the 25 MMT annual target through 2028, depending on the source (AP News, Farmdoc Daily, CNBC). The current date (2026-01-18) sits within the initial years of that purported cycle, so the completion condition has not yet been tested.
Source reliability note: The claim is corroborated by multiple major outlets (AP News, CNBC, Farmdoc Daily) reporting on executive-level statements and deal terms around late 2025, but there is no single, definitive public record from a formal treaty or government action that unambiguously enshrines the three-year, 25 MMT minimum in a binding framework as of January 2026. Some Treasury-page material from January 2026 appears to echo the framing used in political communications, which warrants cautious interpretation. Overall, reporting suggests progress toward the purchasing target, but not formal completion or irradiation of constraints.
Update · Jan 18, 2026, 10:16 AMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The Treasury release SB0353 (Jan 8, 2026) references a framework in which China would purchase 25 million metric tons annually, framing it as a gain for U.S. soybean farmers. AP News (Oct 30, 2025) reported a similar arrangement tied to high-level negotiations and a three-year purchase commitment of 25 million tons per year.
Update · Jan 18, 2026, 07:59 AMin_progress
Claim restated: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence from public sources indicates the framework surfaced in late 2025, with reporting that China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually through 2028, following an initial tranche of purchases. Independent outlets describe a staged implementation: 12 million metric tons purchased by the end of 2025 and a commitment to 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. The Treasury press release is sparse on granular data, but corroboration exists in subsequent media reporting.
Progress to date appears to include concrete purchase commitments and some actual shipments, but there is no publicly verifiable, month-by-month record confirming full adherence to the 25 MMT annual target for each year of the three-year window as of January 2026. The three-year commitment to 25 MMT annually is framed as ongoing through 2028 in multiple analyses, with 2025 delivering an initial step and 2026 onward set for full 25 MMT/year. No credible source indicates cancellation or repudiation of the arrangement.
Reliability: The claim is supported by a Treasury release and corroborated by reputable outlets (AP, CNBC, Farmdoc Daily). Given the policy incentives and trade framing, the reporting aligns on the core incentive to expand U.S. soy exports to China, while noting the staged ramp. Overall, the status is best described as in_progress, with completion expected by 2028 but not yet fulfilled by early 2026.
Update · Jan 18, 2026, 04:07 AMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: In late 2025, U.S. officials and multiple media outlets reported that China had agreed to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually through 2028 as part of a bilateral deal (White House fact sheet referenced by Reuters/AP; ongoing coverage).
Current status: As of January 17, 2026, the agreement framework exists and the 25 MMT annual target through 2028 remains in place, but three full years of purchases completed would be only after 2026–2028 years have elapsed.
Milestones and dates: Initial near-term purchase of 12 million metric tons for the current season was announced in October 2025, followed by the commitment to 25 MMT annually through 2028 (reports from Reuters, AP, AgWeb, CNBC).
Reliability of sources: The claim is supported by multiple reputable outlets (Reuters, AP, CNBC, AgWeb) and corroborated by Treasury materials cited in coverage; while framing varies, the core 25 MMT annual target is consistently reported.
Notes on incentives: The reporting emphasizes official sanctioning of a trade framework and its financial/agrarian impact, though precise governmental drafting and verification of annual purchases should be monitored for sunk costs and implementation risk.
Update · Jan 18, 2026, 02:50 AMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article asserts a binding purchase obligation for
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years under a new trade framework. The Treasury press release SB0353 (Jan 8, 2026) reiterates that China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons per year for three years, framing it as part of the framework. Earlier reporting (AP News, Oct 30, 2025) attributed a similar commitment to a leadership agreement, but without the same formal Treasury documentation. The current material from the Treasury site serves as the primary official reference for the claim.
What progress is evident: The Treasury release names the purchase commitment as part of the framework and situates it within the broader agreement. Public reporting prior to the January 2026 release indicated the arrangement existed in late 2025 as part of discussions with China, with Treasury statements confirming the 25 million metric tons annual figure. There is no publicly released, independent verification of supply contracts or shipments beyond these statements.
Status of completion: There is no explicit completion date or independently verifiable milestone showing the three-year purchase minimum has been met or started. The Treasury document and contemporaneous coverage describe the framework and the annual quantity, but do not publish quarterly or yearly purchase records for 2026 and 2027. Given the absence of verifiable transactional data, the status remains unresolved and unverified beyond official claims.
Dates and milestones: The initiating claim centers on three-year annual purchases starting from the 2025–2026 period, as referenced by Treasury in January 2026 and echoed by prior late-2025 reporting. Milestone verification would require access to China’s import data and U.S. export contracts showing ongoing year-by-year quantities. No independent audit or third-party confirmation has been publicly published to date.
Reliability note: The core assertion rests on a Treasury press release, supplemented by AP and other outlets reporting similar figures in late 2025. Given potential policy pivots and incentives tied to political signaling, it is prudent to treat the claim as contingent on verifiable trade data. The strongest source for the current status is the Treasury SB0353 release itself; independent shipment confirmation remains unavailable in public records.
Sources:
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0353,
https://apnews.com/article/bessent-china-trump-soybeans-8e318b06345d4392804c5c93a96e81b5Update · Jan 18, 2026, 12:25 AMin_progress
Brief restatement of the claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This framing appears in the Treasury remarks published January 8, 2026, as part of a broader narrative about trade deals and agricultural market access. The claim has circulated in multiple outlets since late 2025, with varying emphasis on the conditional nature of the commitment and the enforceability of the purchases.
Evidence of progress: Several reputable outlets reported that China had agreed to buy
US soybeans, with figures cited as 12 million metric tons in 2025 and 25 million tons annually for the subsequent three years. AP (Oct 30, 2025) and CNBC (Dec 9, 2025) both described China’s commitment at 25 MMT per year for the three-year window, alongside other farm and trade terms. AgWeb summarized similar framing, noting the White House/administration messaging around the deal.
Evidence of current status (as of 2026-01-17): There is no independently verifiable data showing concrete, ongoing purchases of 25 MMT per year for 2026, 2027, and 2028. The Treasury remarks frame the commitment as part of a framework and reference its existence, but public market data or supplier disclosures confirming actual, sustained purchases at the 25 MMT level for each year have not been clearly documented in accessible, high-quality outlets. The presence of the claim in a Treasury speech suggests state-level framing, not necessarily a binding, auditable contract.
Milestones and dates: The prominent milestones cited in 2025 reporting include an initial 12 MMT purchase in late 2025 and the pledge of 25 MMT annually for the following three years. The projected completion window would cover 2025–2028 if the three-year commitment is counted from 2025. However, as of mid-January 2026, no final completion has occurred and the three-year completion condition remains unverified publicly.
Source reliability note: The claim largely rests on political and official communications (Treasury remarks; AP/CNBC coverage) rather than independently verifiable commercial contracts or government-to-government enforcement mechanisms. While AP and CNBC are reputable outlets, and the Treasury statement provides an official framing, the absence of corroborating, auditable purchase data means skepticism remains warranted about full implementation. The framing also aligns with the policy/administrative incentives of the speaker and outlet, which should be weighed when assessing enforceability.
Follow-up: If the three-year commitment is intended to be completed by 2028 (from the 2025 pledge), a follow-up update around late 2027 or early 2028 would help verify annual purchases at or above 25 MMT. A specific follow-up date is 2028-12-31.
Update · Jan 17, 2026, 09:59 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public records tied to the late-2025 negotiations indicate an initial commitment of 12 million metric tons in 2025, with plans or expectations for 25 million metric tons annually in the subsequent years. This suggests the headline figure is intended to cover 2026–2028, not 2025, though exact yearly sequencing has varied across sources.
Evidence of progress points to China’s agreed purchases as part of the broader U.S.–China deal reported in late 2025. AP summarized that China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually as part of leaders’ discussions, while Reuters noted that by December 2025 the framework was on track to complete the 12 million metric tons in early 2026 and to fulfill the larger 25 million-ton commitment in the following period. These reports indicate movement toward the stated 25 MMT annual level, but do not show full three-year fulfillment as of early 2026.
As of January 2026, there is no publicly verifiable evidence that the three-year, 25 MMT-per-year commitment has been fully completed. The available coverage describes progress toward meeting the commitment, with a near-term milestone (12 MMT) expected to be finished by early 2026, and the 25 MMT annual pace anticipated in the subsequent years. No independent audit or full-year shipment totals for 2026–2028 are yet published in major outlets.
Key dates and milestones include the October 2025 reporting of a 25 MMT annual commitment in some summaries, the anticipated completion of 12 MMT by February 2026 per Reuters, and ongoing negotiations that would lock in the 25 MMT cadence for the next three years if the framework remains intact. Given competing narratives and the political framing around the deal, readers should treat the 25 MMT figure as part of an agreed framework rather than a fully verified, three-year tally completed to date.
Source reliability varies: AP and Reuters are established outlets with corroborating details about the 12 MMT near-term finish and the 25 MMT goal, though exact annual sequencing is still being implemented. The Treasury page cited in the prompt contains a quotation that appears in a political-leaning context and does not by itself constitute an independent verification of the three-year obligation. Overall, the story remains in_progress with credible progress toward the 25 MMT annual pace but without documented three-year completion at this time.
Update · Jan 17, 2026, 07:57 PMin_progress
The claim asserts that under a new trade framework,
China must buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public statements frame this as a three-year commitment of 25 million tons per year, with the period beginning in 2025 and running through 2027. Treasury remarks on January 8, 2026 reiterate the framework and its purchase target as part of policy messaging. Reporting from AP News and CNBC describes the commitment and notes that progress has been made but that the full annual target has not been consistently realized yet.
Evidence of progress includes reports that China agreed to purchase 12 million tons in the tail end of 2025 and that subsequent purchases were restarting after a period of reduced buying. Analysts and media coverage therefore view the deal as moving toward the 25 million-ton annual goal, but with variability in monthly totals. The NBC News analysis cited by CNBC shows purchases to date that fall short of the full three-year target.
There is no definitive confirmation that all three years will see 25 million tons each year, as of mid-January 2026. The available evidence points to ongoing implementation with partial fulfillment and monitoring required to verify year-by-year compliance. The completion condition remains unmet, and the timeline extends into 2027 unless otherwise modified.
Reliability varies by source: the U.S. Treasury remarks provide official framing, while AP News and CNBC offer contemporaneous market reporting and synthesis of USDA data. Taken together, they indicate progress toward the target but not full, independent verification of complete annual fulfillment. The assessment favors cautious interpretation until sustained, year-specific data are available.
Given the evidence to date, the status should be described as in_progress, with close monitoring through 2026–2027 to determine whether the three-year, 25-million-ton-per-year target is ultimately completed.
Update · Jan 17, 2026, 06:19 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts a new trade framework obligates
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence from official and reputable reporting confirms the 25 MMT annual commitment, with an initial tranche of 12 MMT to be purchased by early 2026 and a three-year duration for the agreement. The Treasury Department and major outlets reported the framework and its terms, including reference to a three-year horizon beginning in late 2025 (AP) and a formal Treasury statement (Treasury press materials). The sources emphasize the promise as a policy milestone tied to China’s purchases and U.S. agricultural exports (AP 2025-10/12; Treasury 2026-01-08).
Update · Jan 17, 2026, 03:57 PMin_progress
Restatement of the claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years.
Progress evidence: The Treasury remarks from January 8, 2026 attribute the commitment to Secretary Scott Bessent's speech, but there is no public, independently verifiable official framework document or corroborating statements from other government sources confirming a binding 25 million MT annual purchase for three years.
Completion status: As of 2026-01-17, there is no confirmed formal agreement or enforceable framework publicly verified by multiple reputable outlets or official documents; the claim remains unverified in the public record.
Dates and milestones: The claim references a three-year window starting under the framework, but no start date, milestone dates, or enforcement details have been publicly released or corroborated.
Sources reliability note: The claim relies largely on a Treasury speech with limited corroboration; reputable outlets have reported related context in 2025, but a transparent, corroborated public record confirming a binding 25 MT/year commitment is not evident.
Follow-up guidance: Monitor for a formal Treasury press release, White House or
Chinese government statements, or an international trade document that substantiates the 25 MT annual commitment and outlines timelines and enforcement. A follow-up date is provided below.
Update · Jan 17, 2026, 02:02 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: A new trade framework purportedly obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Progress and evidence: Reports in late 2025 indicated China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually as part of an agreement; Treasury Secretary Bessent later referenced the framework in January 2026. Completion status: There is public acknowledgment of the commitment, but no independently verified delivery milestones for 2026–2028; the three-year period has not yet elapsed. Dates and milestones: Initial reporting around Oct 2025 framed the 25 MMT annual commitment; January 2026 Treasury materials reaffirmed the framework without detailing quarterly purchase totals. Source reliability: Coverage from AP News and Treasury communications provides official framing; cross-confirmation from other business outlets supports the existence of the agreement, though exact execution details remain to be verified. Incentives: The arrangement appears aimed at boosting U.S. agricultural exports; ongoing verification is needed to assess whether anticipated volumes materialize amid market and geopolitical dynamics.
Update · Jan 17, 2026, 12:12 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: In late October 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and multiple outlets reported that China had agreed to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually as part of a broader agreement with U.S. leaders. Subsequent reporting in November–December 2025 indicated that China’s purchases were being scaled and that the current season would see around 12 million metric tons contracted through January, with other supply/demand dynamics cited (e.g., weather, market conditions). The Treasury press materials from January 2026 reiterate the 25 million-ton promise but do not show a fully ratified, verifiable three-year execution as of mid-January 2026.
Current status and milestones: As of 2026-01-17, there is evidence of a negotiated framework and substantial U.S. assurances about one-year purchase targets, but there is no independently verified completion of three consecutive 25 MMT years. Reported numbers vary (12 MMT for the current season vs. 25 MMT annually as promised), and there has not been a public, conclusive milestone confirming three full years of at-least-25-MMT annual purchases.
Dates and milestones: The claim originates from a Treasury event and related press materials dated January 8, 2026, but contemporaneous reporting about China’s actual purchases centers on the October 2025 announcements and the December 2025 trading period. The available public reporting to date does not confirm full execution of the three-year, 25 MMT annual had-on-day requirement.
Source reliability note: Primary source material includes the U.S. Treasury press release and remarks, complemented by reporting from AP News, Reuters, CNBC, and industry-focused briefings. Cross-source coverage indicates inconsistencies in the exact quantity commitments across timelines, underscoring the need for caution about firm, line-item commitments until verifiable shipment data or official confirmation is published.
Follow-up: Monitor quarterly U.S. soybean export data and any official China-U.S. trade framework updates to determine if and when three consecutive years at or above 25 MMT are achieved. A follow-up date is set for 2028-10-30 to assess completion of the three-year commitment.
Update · Jan 17, 2026, 10:09 AMin_progress
Restated claim: A new trade framework allegedly obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This framing appears in remarks attributed to Treasury officials and has been cited by multiple outlets as part of a negotiated agreement. The Treasury press page for SB0353 contains the claim within a speech excerpt, but the document itself does not appear to establish a formal, legally binding framework published as policy text (press materials are quoted here). See SB0353 remarks (Treasury.gov) and contemporaneous reporting (AP, CNBC).
Progress and evidence: Public reporting indicates that China was described as agreeing to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with an initial shipment figure of 12 million metric tons to begin soon. The AP summary quotes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and notes a three-year duration; CNBC and other outlets reported similar figures. There is no clear, publicly available treaty text or government regulation detailing an enforceable purchase obligation. The momentum rests on statements by officials rather than a published, codified framework.
Completion status: There is no verifiable evidence of a formal completion or binding enforcement mechanism aligning with the stated three-year 25 million-ton threshold as of 2026-01-16. Independent reporting frames it as a stated outcome of discussions, not a conclusively enacted treaty or executive order. The reliability of the claim hinges on official confirmation of a binding framework, which has not been independently corroborated by a primary, non-partisan government document.
Dates and milestones: Reported terms included starting with 12 million tons to be purchased by January, with the full 25 million-ton level envisaged over three years. News cycles around late October to December 2025 highlighted the claim; the Treasury remarks page is dated January 8, 2026. No public milestone docket (contract awards, regulatory approvals, or detailed implementation schedules) has been publicly verified as completed by independent sources.
Source reliability note: The most direct claim originates from a Treasury remarks page and was echoed by AP, which cited Treasury officials; both sources rely on statements rather than a published, formal agreement. Reputable outlets (AP, CNBC) treat the 25 million-ton figure as a reported expectation rather than a confirmed, legally binding obligation. Given the reliance on official statements without a published framework, skepticism is warranted and cross-checks with primary treaty text would be needed for confirmation.
Follow-up assessment: If a binding framework exists, it should be reflected in a formal agreement document, regulatory filing, or contract announcements. A follow-up should verify any signed framework, purchase schedules, and enforceable milestones, ideally with a copy of the text and corroboration from multiple high-quality sources.
Update · Jan 17, 2026, 08:12 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: reporting indicates China has resumed purchases of U.S. soybeans after a trade agreement, with White House and media noting a plan to buy 12 million metric tons in the remainder of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. Completion assessment: as of January 2026, the 25 MMT-per-year target is stated as ongoing and scheduled through 2028, with initial purchases having begun in late 2025; a three-year completion would extend into 2028, so the claim is not yet complete but is in progress. Reliability note: sources include major outlets (AP, CNBC) and academic analysis, which corroborate the existence and terms of the deal, though exact year-by-year delivery figures can fluctuate with demand and weather conditions.
Update · Jan 17, 2026, 04:17 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence suggests an initial phase of purchases, beginning with a 12 million metric ton tranche and aiming for 25 MMT annually within the three-year term, per Treasury and press reporting (AP Jan 2026; AP Oct 2025). Progress indicates implementation is underway but not yet verified as completed for all three years. The completion status remains contingent on annual purchase verifications through 2026–2028; no independent confirmation of full three-year fulfillment exists as of 2026-01-16.
Update · Jan 17, 2026, 02:33 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting around late 2025 and early 2026 indicates that a 25 million metric ton annual commitment was discussed or touted by U.S. officials as part of rapprochement efforts, with contemporaneous notes suggesting the figure would apply for multiple years. However, there is no uniformly consistent, formal, publicly released treaty text confirming a legally binding three-year commitment with clear enforcement mechanics.
Evidence of progress includes reported
Chinese purchases resuming in late 2025 and media/official briefings tying those purchases to a framework that included high-volume soybean purchases. AP and CNBC coverage in late 2025 describe an agreement framework and initial purchases, while a White House fact sheet circulated in late 2025/early 2026 has cited 25 MMT annually through 2028 as part of the broader deal. Treasury statements on January 8, 2026 reiterate the 25 MMT figure in the context of Secretary Bessent’s remarks, but do not publish a formal signed contract in the publicly accessible record.
As of January 16, 2026, several outlets report the 25 MMT figure as part of the understandings reached, but there remains ambiguity about legal force, specific timelines, and ongoing annual purchase requirements. Some sources describe an arrangement that includes 12 MMT in earlier periods or shorter windows, while others push the 25 MMT/year through 2028. The public record does not clearly show a completed, auditable, three-year completion condition with enforceable milestones documented by the U.S. government.
Reliability notes: coverage from AP, CNBC, and AgWeb reflects reporting on statements from Treasury officials and White House fact sheets, though those pieces vary in how they frame legality and enforceability. The Treasury press page included in the source materials confirms the 25 MMT figure in remarks, but the page’s content is not a formal treaty text. Taken together, the sources indicate movement toward higher U.S. soybean purchases by China, but without a clearly verifiable, legally binding schedule or completion certificate as of mid-January 2026.
If the claim’s completion is defined as a legally binding three-year purchase obligation with explicit annual milestones, the publicly available record as of 2026-01-16 does not definitively confirm completion. It signals progress and stated commitments, but the enforceable status remains unclear pending a formal document or contracting milestones.
Update · Jan 17, 2026, 01:33 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting indicates the 25 MMT target was part of late-2025 discussions, with officials citing the commitment, but initial purchases have fallen short of the 25 MMT pace in the near term (e.g., 12 MMT pledged for 2025-2026 window; actual shipments through late 2025/early 2026 were well below 25 MMT) (AP News; CNBC; NBC News analysis). As of 2026-01-16, there is no publicly verified completion of three consecutive years at or above 25 MMT; progress is ongoing and the target remains contingent on sustained higher-volume purchases. The reliability of sources varies, with AP News and CNBC reporting the pledge and early progress, while USDA data via NBC News provides the most direct purchase metrics to date.
Update · Jan 16, 2026, 10:35 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting indicates that in late 2025, U.S. officials described a deal with China involving an annual purchase target of 25 million metric tons through 2028, with an initial tranche of 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025. Multiple reputable outlets summarized this arrangement as a China–U.S. soybean commitment tied to a broader trade framework (AP News, AGWeb, Farmdoc Daily; late Oct–Nov 2025).
What evidence suggests progress: Reports from October–November 2025 describe China agreeing to purchase 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. These accounts attribute the commitments to statements by U.S. officials and contemporaneous White House/Treasury messaging. Coverage from AP News and industry-focused outlets synthesized these details as a formalized deal or framework.
What the status appears to be: As of January 2026, the arrangement is announced and underway, with the three-year commitment extending through 2028. It is described as an ongoing framework rather than a completed, single-event action, meaning progress is in_progress rather than finished.
Milestones and dates: Initial 12 million metric tons purchase by January 2026 (per reporting), followed by annual purchases of 25 million metric tons for 2026–2028. Publicly cited milestones hinge on quarterly/annual procurement volumes under the framework, with 2028 identified as the final year of the stated period.
Reliability of sources: Coverage from AP News, AgWeb, and Farmdoc Daily provides cross-cutting perspectives (newswire reporting and agricultural policy analysis). While details are frequently summarized by outlets, the core dates and volume targets align across sources. The Treasury/White House framing in late 2025 supports the claim’s framework; however, precise contractual language and enforcement mechanisms are less overt in public reports.
Bottom line on incentives and optics: The deal appears motivated by political and economic signaling—bolstering U.S. soybean farmers and reinforcing U.S.–China trade recalibration. The incentives for actors include market access for U.S. agriculture and potential political capital for officials promoting a trade-favorable narrative. Given the public sources, the claim is best characterized as in_progress with a defined target through 2028, rather than a fully completed, legally binding, year-by-year procurement covenant widely disclosed in detail.
Update · Jan 16, 2026, 08:05 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Treasury remarks (Jan 8, 2026) frame the 25 MMT per year as a binding commitment within the framework, with an initial phase of multi-year purchases. Independent reporting in late 2025 and early 2026 notes a 12 MMT near-term milestone and a goal of 25 MMT annually through 2028, with progress and resumed purchases after a late-2025 truce. As of January 2026, public evidence shows movement toward the target but no independently verified three-year fulfillment; the status remains in_progress.
Update · Jan 16, 2026, 06:29 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserted that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Status and progress: Public reporting in late 2025 described an agreement with China to buy 25 million metric tons annually, with initial deliveries beginning in late 2025 and the three-year window extending through 2028. Evidence of progress: AP cited Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirming the 25 million tons per year, and coverage noted an initial 12 million tons by the end of 2025, with the 25 million-ton annual target tied to the 2025–2028 period. Current assessment: As of January 2026, the framework appears to be in_progress rather than fully completed, with milestones indicating partial execution and ongoing procurement commitments. Sources and reliability: Reports from AP News and multiple outlets referencing White House materials and trade analyses provide corroboration for the stated targets, though contemporaneous volumes may vary and require updated data to confirm full adherence.
Update · Jan 16, 2026, 04:04 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence of progress exists in public remarks by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and coverage noting an agreement or framework to buy 25 million tons annually for three years. Independent verification of enforceable delivery remains limited to those statements and initial reporting, with no published, binding milestones confirmed by multiple sources. The completion status therefore remains uncertain pending verifiable procurement data over the three-year period.
Update · Jan 16, 2026, 02:08 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reports from late 2025 indicate an agreement initiating a 25 million metric ton annual commitment for the following three years, with an initial 12 million metric tons purchased in 2025 and the full 25 million-ton level slated for 2026 onward. Coverage includes AP News reporting statements by Treasury officials and industry analyses describing the phased implementation.
Current status relative to completion: The completion condition asks for three consecutive years of 25 MMT purchases after the agreement. By January 2026, the 2026–2028 period appears to begin the 25 MMT cadence, but the full three-year sequence has not yet concluded, so the claim remains in_progress rather than complete or failed.
Dates and milestones: Notable milestones include the October 2025 announcement of the 25 MMT annual commitment, the 2025 12 MMT intake, and the planned 25 MMT per year from 2026 through 2028, as reported by AP News and trade analyses. Source reliability is strengthened by corroboration across major outlets and official Treasury communications.
Update · Jan 16, 2026, 12:46 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article states that under a new trade framework
China commits to purchasing at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. The Treasury remarks echo this framing, asserting a three-year commitment of 25 MMT per year.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting in late 2025 indicates an agreement was reached with a plan for China to buy 12 MMT in the near term and 25 MMT annually for the following three years, as described by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and subsequent coverage from AP News. Analyses from industry outlets corroborate the 12 MMT near-term purchase and the 25 MMT annual target through 2028.
Status of completion: As of 2026-01-16, there is no verified data showing China has completed all 3 years of 25 MMT annual purchases. The available public records describe the agreement and its intended terms, but do not document enforceable deliveries beyond the initial 12 MMT tranche. Therefore, the completion condition—annual purchases of at least 25 MMT for three consecutive years—has not been independently confirmed as fulfilled.
Milestones and dates: The initial 12 MMT purchase window was described to occur between late 2025 and January 2026, with a three-year horizon for the 25 MMT annual level thereafter. The Treasury release (sb0353) and AP coverage provide these milestone dates, but concrete shipment totals for 2026 or 2027 have not been independently verified in major high-quality sources.
Source reliability and balance: The primary corroboration comes from a Treasury press/excerpted remarks and reliable outlets like AP News; secondary coverage from AgWeb and Farmdoc Daily reinforces the stated framework. Taken together, these sources indicate a formal agreement with the 25 MMT annual target, but lack of verifiable, independent shipment tallies keeps the report in a status of attribution rather than proven completion.
Follow-up note: If new official shipment data or government disclosures confirm year-by-year purchases meeting 25 MMT through 2028, update to complete; otherwise, continue to monitor ongoing trade data and official statements.
Update · Jan 16, 2026, 10:17 AMin_progress
What the claim states: A new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years, beginning within the current arrangement. This promise is attributed to a statement by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, repeated in a January 2026 Treasury remarks piece. The framed expectation is that three consecutive annual purchases of no less than 25 million metric tons will occur for the three-year period.
Progress and evidence: Public reporting from autumn 2025 established a 12 million metric ton purchase for the current season and a 25 million-ton annual commitment for the following three years, as described by Bessent in multiple outlets (AP, Reuters). The Treasury remarks in January 2026 reiterate the 25 million-ton annual framework, but independent, verifiable procurement data for 2026 and beyond remain limited in public sources.
Current status: The 12 million-ton near-term buy and the longer three-year 25 million-ton framework have been publicly discussed and presented by U.S. officials, but there is no cleared, contemporaneous verification of actual volumes meeting the 25 million-ton target each year. In other words, the plan exists in official framing and media reporting, but full execution data are not publicly confirmed as of mid-January 2026.
Dates and milestones: October 2025 media coverage (AP/Reuters) described an initial 12 million tons for the current season and a commitment to 25 million tons annually for three years. The January 8, 2026 Treasury remarks reiterated the 25 million-ton annual figure for the three-year window. No further signed documentation or milestone events publicly published beyond these statements.
Source reliability note: Major outlets (AP, Reuters) reported on the initial 12 million-ton and 25 million-ton commitments in late 2025. The Treasury remarks provide an official framing of the commitment but do not, on their own, provide independent verification of executed purchases. Overall, sources are reputable, but concrete, year-by-year purchase data through 2026–2028 remains to be independently confirmed.
Update · Jan 16, 2026, 07:55 AMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Reporting from late 2025 indicates China agreed to 25 million metric tons annually through 2028, with an initial 12 million metric tons to be purchased by the end of 2025 as part of the framework (CNBC, AP, AgWeb, Farmdoc Daily). The Treasury press release dated January 8, 2026 reiterates the framework and the 25 MT annual pledge, but publicly verifiable year-by-year totals for 2026–2028 had not been published at that time.
Status of completion: There is no independent verification that three consecutive years of 25 MT have been completed as of January 2026. The available material confirms commitments and early shipments, but not complete, audited totals for each of the three years.
Milestones and dates: Key items include the late-2025/early-2026 reporting of a 12
MT start and 25 MT annually through 2028, and the January 2026 Treasury remarks restating the terms. No official annual totals through 2028 were publicly released by that date.
Source reliability and caveats: Coverage relies on statements from Treasury/White House-aligned briefings and reputable outlets; some claims derive from official statements rather than independent shipment data. The claim remains unconfirmed as completed pending transparent, year-end totals for 2026–2028.
Update · Jan 16, 2026, 04:28 AMin_progress
What the claim stated: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. This frames the agreement as a binding, multi-year purchase obligation for 25 MMT per year.
Evidence of progress: Public statements in late 2025 outlined a staged threshold, with China reportedly committing to 12 MMT in the final months of 2025 and at least 25 MMT annually for 2026–2028 (three-year span). U.S. officials and White House communications attributed a standing pledge of 25 MMT per year through 2028, aligning with the three-year horizon referenced in the claim (White House fact sheet, Reuters coverage). The Treasury secretary publicly referenced the 25 MMT figure as part of the framework in late 2025 and early 2026 remarks (Treasury materials, Reuters reporting).
Current status as of 2026-01-15: The agreement appears to be in effect for the first year of the horizon (2026) but there has not yet been three full years completed to confirm fulfillment of the three-year 25 MMT per year condition. Published materials indicate the commitment spans 2026–2028, with 2026 the initial year underway. No independent verification yet confirms all three years have met or exceeded the 25 MMT target on a year-by-year basis.
Dates and milestones: 2025-10-30: reports indicate China agreed to 12 MMT in the remainder of 2025 and 25 MMT annually starting in 2026. 2025-11 to 2025-12: White House fact sheet and media coverage reinforce 25 MMT per year through 2028. 2026-01-08 to 2026-01-15: Treasury remarks publicly reiterate the 25 MMT annual commitment for the three-year window. These documents collectively establish the milestone framework but do not finalize a three-year completion by 2028 until each year’s purchases are reported.
Reliability of sources: The cited Treasury press-related material and statements (official government sources) are primary for the claim, supplemented by White House fact sheets and Reuters coverage, which provide corroboration from reputable outlets. While initial reporting in late 2025 frames the commitment as binding, independent, post-hoc verification of yearly purchases remains essential for full confirmation. Overall, sources are high-quality and appropriate for assessing stated commitments and progress, with caution warranted until annual purchase data for 2026–2028 are independently published.
Update · Jan 16, 2026, 02:26 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The claim asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years (2026–2028). The source framing this commitment comes from a Treasury press event referencing a framework in which China would buy 25 MMT per year for three years. This sets an ongoing multi-year purchase obligation rather than a completed act.
Progress evidence: Public reporting indicates that a broader agreement or framework was reached in late 2025, with Treasury officials stating the 25 MMT annual target. Reports from AP and other outlets note that China recommenced soybean purchases in late 2025, including a schedule where China was expected to buy at least 12 MMT in the final two months of 2025 and then reach 25 MMT annually in subsequent years (through 2028 per some analyses) [AP 2025-10/12-2025; CNBC/others 2025-12]. Treasury communications reinforce the three-year 25 MMT commitment as the framework’s core, but explicit, verifiable year-by-year procurement data for 2026 remains limited in public summaries.
Current status (completion, progression, or stall): As of 2026-01-15, there is evidence of a multi-year obligation and some initial purchases, but no publicly verifiable confirmation that all three years (2026–2028) have been completed or fully fulfilled. The available reporting describes the framework and commitments, plus early 2026 sanctions and statements, rather than a finalized, year-by-year procurement ledger for 2026. In short, the arrangement is in force in principle and underway, not completed.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones cited include: (a) late-2025 agreement framing China’s purchases of 25 MMT annually; (b) October–December 2025 purchases amounting to at least 12 MMT in the near term; (c) January 2026 Treasury remarks reiterating the 25 MMT per year for three years; (d) ongoing monitoring into 2026 for annual compliance. The absence of a published, official per-year procurement tally for 2026 constrains final judgment on completion.
Source reliability and neutrality notes: The principal claim basis is a U.S. Treasury press engagement (official government source) that states the 25 MMT per year for three years. Independent outlets corroborate the existence of a framework and initial purchases in late 2025, though they vary in precision about start dates and annual totals. Given The Follow Up’s emphasis on accuracy and corroboration, the combination of the Treasury source and corroborating media reporting supports the stated framework, while also indicating that full year-by-year fulfillment for 2026–2028 requires more granular data to confirm。
Update · Jan 16, 2026, 12:15 AMin_progress
Claim restated: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: A 2025 AP report cites China agreeing to purchase 25 million metric tons annually as part of a leaders’ agreement, with an initial tranche of 12 million metric tons to be purchased by January 2026. That report dated Oct 30, 2025 appears to be the most detailed public articulation of the arrangement to date. The U.S. Treasury subsequently referenced the framework in a January 8, 2026 remarks, reiterating the 25 million metric tons annual commitment for three years.
Current status and milestone assessment: As of 2026-01-15, the arrangement is described as ongoing, with the three-year commitment not yet completed. The initial 12 million metric tons timeline suggests movement toward the annual 25 million benchmark, but no evidence shows full-year purchases for all three years having occurred yet.
Key dates and milestones: The AP report indicates a start with 12 million metric tons by January 2026 and a three-year term for 25 million metric tons per year. The Treasury remarks on 2026-01-08 refer to the same framework but do not provide new milestone dates beyond confirming the 25 million figure for three years.
Source reliability: AP News is a reputable outlet with standard fact-checking standards; the Treasury’s official press material confirms government acknowledgment of the framework. Cross-checks with other major outlets yield similar summaries but often rely on the same initial announcements. No credible, high-quality sources corroborate dramatic deviations or contradictory terms at this time.
Notes on incentives and neutrality: The claim centers on a prospective trade framework tied to agricultural purchases. Coverage across sources presents the framework as a negotiated outcome rather than a fully proven, completed delivery, and emphasizes that initial purchases are slated to begin under the three-year cycle. Given the incentives of state actors and media outlets, ongoing verification of actual tonnage purchases remains essential for assessing true progress.
Update · Jan 16, 2026, 12:01 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: public reporting in late 2025 indicated China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons in late 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually for the following three years, with initial purchases and shipments beginning in the final months of 2025 and continuing into January 2026 (AP News; Reuters; CNBC).
Current status and completion condition: as of mid-January 2026, purchases have been substantial but public records do not confirm that China has consistently met the 25 MMT annual target for all three years; the three-year completion condition remains unverified. The situation is described as ongoing and contingent on ongoing purchases.
Reliability and milestones: major outlets report the framework and early purchases, but the data show progress rather than formal completion; market data through January 2026 suggests purchases around 8.5–10 MMT so far, far short of a full 25 MMT in a full year, raising questions about steady annual fulfillment. Follow-up will be needed to confirm annual totals for 2026–2028.
Sources: AP News (apnews.com), Reuters (reuters.com), CNBC (cnbc.com), AgWeb (agweb.com), FarmDoc Daily (farmdocdaily.illinois.edu),
Fortune (fortune.com)
Update · Jan 15, 2026, 08:08 PMin_progress
What the claim states: The article alleges that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This would establish a binding yearly minimum purchase level for three consecutive years starting from the agreement date.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting late in 2025 indicated China had agreed to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually for the following three years, with initial purchases beginning in late 2025 or early 2026. Coverage from AP and industry analysis notes the agreement’s structure, including an initial 12 million metric tons in an early phase and then the 25 million-ton annual target for the subsequent years (through 2028) (AP, FarmDocDaily, AgWeb summary, CNBC). However, these sources describe an agreement and intended cadence rather than a verified, verifiable rollout with auditable milestones as of January 2026.
Current status: As of mid-January 2026, there is no publicly available, independently confirmed record that all three years of 25 million metric tons per year have been completed or even fully commenced with verifiable shipments meeting the 25 Mt annual minimum. Media coverage emphasizes the announced framework and expectations, but progress checks beyond the initial reporting period are sparse in authoritative outlets. The status remains contingent on ongoing implementation and future shipment data.
Reliability and context: The most relevant reporting points to a late-2025 announcement, with subsequent coverage in January 2026 summarizing the framework and its intended cadence. The sources cited – AP, CNBC, FarmDocDaily, AgWeb – are reputable industry and mainstream outlets, but interim guarantees or enforcement details are not provided in the available public record. Given the monitoring window extends into 2026–2028, ongoing verification will hinge on future official shipment data and corroborating statements from the U.S. Treasury or trade authorities.
Notes on sources: AP News (Oct 2025) reported the initial agreement; CNBC and FarmDocDaily offered details on the cadence (2025–2028). AgWeb provided clarifications on what was actually agreed. Treasury press materials from January 2026 reflect the framing but do not establish a published, independent progress log for the three-year minimum purchases by China.
Update · Jan 15, 2026, 06:36 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public documentation confirming this 25 million metric ton annual commitment is limited. The Treasury SB0353 page includes the referenced framework discussion but does not present a formal, legally binding agreement or verifiable milestones corroborated by independent sources as of 2026-01-15.
Status of completion: There is no clear evidence that the three-year purchase obligation has been completed, remains in effect under a binding agreement, or has been canceled.
Dates and milestones: No dated milestones or official completion date are publicly available; there is no published text confirming an effective date or three-year schedule.
Reliability and sourcing: The main source appears to be a Treasury press page containing speech-like language rather than a formal treaty or contract, and corroboration from high-quality, independent outlets is lacking at this time.
Overall assessment: The claim remains unverified as a binding commitment based on publicly available information; status is best described as in_progress pending formal documentation or independent confirmation.
Update · Jan 15, 2026, 04:08 PMin_progress
Claim restated: A new trade framework purportedly obligates
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. Evidence of progress: Public statements in late 2025 framed China’s commitment as 25 million metric tons annually, with early shipments (12 million metric tons) reported to begin by late 2025/early 2026. Public coverage notes China resumed purchases after a period of reduced imports, but does not confirm full annual attainment for all three years.
Current status: The arrangement is in the implementation phase as of January 2026, with initial purchases underway and the three-year horizon in effect. Completion of the full 25 MMT annual target for each of the three years remains contingent on ongoing adherence and market dynamics. Independent reporting emphasizes ongoing monitoring rather than a closed, finalized fulfillment.
Milestones and dates: The framework quotes a three-year period starting with 2025–2028, with 12 MMT in the first tranche and 25 MMT annually thereafter, per treasury and press coverage. Public sources do not show a final tally for each of the three years, only the stated commitments and initial purchases. The projected completion date is not published; progress is assessed year by year.
Source reliability: AP News and CNBC are reputable outlets reporting direct statements from Treasury officials and aligned with official data. Treasury’s SB0353 page is listed but appears garbled in the scraped excerpt; nonetheless, the reported commitments match the coverage from AP and CNBC. Overall, the reporting supports cautious interpretation that the deal is in progress rather than completed.
Update · Jan 15, 2026, 02:10 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting in late 2025 described the commitment as part of a leaders’ agreement, with 25 million metric tons annually cited by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and various outlets. As of mid-January 2026 there is no independently verifiable evidence that China has completed 25 million metric tons in each of the three years, beyond the announced commitment itself.
Update · Jan 15, 2026, 12:18 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article stated that under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: AP News and CNBC reported that, as part of the late-2025 agreement, China committed to 25 million metric tons annually for the three-year period, with initial purchases beginning in late 2025 and continuing into early 2026. The Treasury briefings and subsequent coverage corroborate the framework and target, though monthly totals have varied. Completion status: The three-year window has begun, but no final-year milestone has been reached as of mid-January 2026, and full adherence across all three years remains to be determined. Reliability note: Reports come from well-established outlets citing Treasury officials; market data can fluctuate and depend on USDA reporting schedules and trade flows. Overall assessment: The claim is best characterized as in_progress given the ongoing commitment and purchases within the three-year period.
Update · Jan 15, 2026, 10:16 AMin_progress
Restatement of claim: The framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: Public statements indicate China agreed to purchase 25 million metric tons annually, with initial shipments starting by January 2026 and a three-year commitment, following a late-2025 deal announced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (AP report; Treasury SB0353). Initial deliveries included a 12 million-ton tranche in the final months of 2025, setting the pace for the three-year period beginning in 2026 (AP). Evidence of completion status: As of 2026-01-14, the three-year purchase obligation has not yet completed; the target is to meet at least 25 million metric tons per year for 2026–2028, with the 2025 period not meeting the annual target due to timing of the initial shipments. Dates and milestones: Agreement announced late Oct 2025; 12 million metric tons to be shipped by January 2026; annual 25 million metric tons for each of the following three years (AP/ Treasury references). Reliability of sources: The claim is supported by a Treasury press release (SB0353) and contemporaneous reporting from AP, both high-quality sources; ongoing verification will require official trade data to confirm sustained annual purchases. Note on neutrality: Reporting reflects official statements and journalism without evident manipulation; continued monitoring of actual purchase data is recommended.
Update · Jan 15, 2026, 08:14 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article claims that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: Reporting indicates that an agreement was reached in late 2025, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating China would buy 25 million metric tons annually as part of the deal. AP News covered that China would begin by purchasing 12 million metric tons by January 2026 and that the arrangement lasts three years. This establishes initial movement toward the commitment but does not prove full annual compliance yet.
Milestones and timeline: The completion condition envisions three consecutive years of at least 25 MMT purchased. The publicly reported plan calls for 25 MMT per year, beginning after an initial 12 MMT entry, over a three-year period through 2028. As of 2026-01-14, the first year of that three-year window is underway but not yet complete.
Current status as of 2026-01-14: The arrangement is in the early implementation phase. There is evidence of an initial purchase target (12 MMT by January 2026) and a formal three-year commitment to 25 MMT annually, but the full three-year annual minimum has not yet been fulfilled, so the claim remains in_progress rather than completed.
Source reliability and balance: The principal, verifiable statement comes from Associated Press coverage of the agreement and its milestones. Other outlets echoed the same timeline, reinforcing the event’s occurrence and the stated annual target. Given the timeframe and evolving nature of trade deals, continued corroboration from multiple reputable outlets will be needed to confirm ongoing annual purchases through 2028.
Conclusion: The claim is not yet complete; the agreement appears to be in_progress, with an initial 12 MMT entry and a three-year commitment to 25 MMT annually still underway as of 2026-01-14. AP News is the primary corroborating source for the stated milestones.
Update · Jan 15, 2026, 04:47 AMin_progress
Restatement of claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly framed the agreement as China committing to 25 million metric tons per year for three years, with coverage in Treasury remarks and AP News reporting (Oct 30, 2025). Industry analyses likewise describe an initial 12 million metric tons in late 2025 followed by 25 MMT annually through 2028.
Current status: As of 2026-01-14, the framework and the target have been publicly announced, but shipment-by-shipment data and independent verification for 2026–2028 are not confirmed in the cited sources.
Milestones and dates: The central milestone is the October 2025 announcement of a 25 MMT annual target for three years, with an implied start in 2026. Some sources note a 12 MMT tranche in late 2025, but formal confirmation of ongoing fulfillment is not documented publicly in the provided materials.
Reliability: Sources include Treasury remarks, AP News, CNBC, and FarmDoc Daily. They are reputable or specialty outlets, but lack independent, verifiable quarterly purchase data to confirm completion.
Notes on neutrality: The reporting centers on the existence and framing of the commitment; no evidence of cancellation is found in the cited materials.
Update · Jan 15, 2026, 02:33 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The Treasury press release describes a new trade framework in which
China commits to buying at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates China agreed to purchase 25 MMT per year as part of a late-2025 agreement, with an initial tranche of roughly 12 MMT to be purchased by early 2026, and ongoing purchases thereafter per Treasury remarks and media coverage.
Completion status: As of mid-January 2026, there is no evidence the three-year 25 MMT annual target has been completed; purchases have occurred but at levels well below the pledged target, leaving the completion condition unmet.
Dates and milestones: The claim is anchored to a January 8, 2026 Treasury remarks; market data through late 2025/early 2026 shows total purchases around 2.8–3 MMT since October, indicating a gap to the 25 MMT annual target.
Source reliability notes: The Treasury release provides the formal commitment; independent reporting (AP, CNBC, farmdoc) corroborates that purchases have begun but are not yet at the target, highlighting ongoing execution risk and negotiation.
Overall assessment: The claim remains a stated commitment without full realization to date; the evidence supports an in_progress status.
Update · Jan 15, 2026, 12:48 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: A new trade framework purportedly obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence indicates an agreement framework was discussed late in 2025, including a pledge for China to buy 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028, with subsequent purchases resuming after a late-2025 trade truce. As of January 14, 2026, overall U.S. soybean shipments show China’s purchases were evolving in the context of volatile trade tensions, and China’s 2025 soybean imports reached a record high driven largely by
South American purchases. Reliability: Reuters provided contemporaneous data on 2025 imports and the shift away from U.S. soybeans in 2025, while farm-policy outlets and AgWeb summarized the 12 MMT/25 MMT commitments; the Treasury press release framed the pledge but independent verification of a guaranteed 25 MMT annually through 2028 remains incomplete.
Update · Jan 14, 2026, 10:33 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The claim asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting in late 2025 indicated an agreement or commitment for China to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans, with various outlets citing a 25 million metric tons per year target for a multi-year period (e.g., AP on Oct 30, 2025; CNBC on Dec 9, 2025). A farm-sector briefing analyses the deal as including an annual 25 MMT purchase through 2028. The Treasury press office reiterated the reference to the framework in remarks dated Jan 8, 2026, though the post itself focuses on broader policy themes and cites the framework more as a political outcome than a detailed procurement schedule.
Whether completed: There is no publicly verifiable record of China actually purchasing 25 MMT in each of the three years as of 2026-01-14. Independent reporting acknowledges the commitment, but concrete, year-by-year purchase totals for 2026–2028 have not been independently confirmed in authoritative data feeds (e.g., official trade statistics or confirmed supplier reports).
Milestones and dates: Reported statements place the commitment as starting in late 2025 with annual purchases through 2028 (per multiple outlets); the Treasury release on Jan 8, 2026 confirms the framework but does not publish a binding, year-specific schedule or confirmed shipment data. The absence of corroborated shipment-by-shipment or customs data leaves the completion status as not yet verified.
Source reliability and balance: Coverage from AP and CNBC is cross-checked by trade- and agricultural-policy analyses (FarmdocDaily), while the official Treasury release similarly references the framework but does not provide enforceable procurement records. Given the incentives around political framing and differing timelines in public statements, cautious interpretation is warranted; no single source provides definitive, verifiable enforcement of the 25 MMT per year at this stage.
Follow-up note: If data become available, a follow-up should track China’s actual purchases against the 25 MMT annual target for each of the three years (2026–2028), using official trade statistics, customs data, and supplier shipment records.
Update · Jan 14, 2026, 09:08 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting indicates an agreement announced in October 2025, with China agreeing to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years and starting with initial purchases to be shipped by January 2026. Evidence thus far shows progress toward the commitment, including initial purchases, but no final tally for the full three-year period has been independently verified. The reliability of sources includes Treasury statements and mainstream outlets noting the agreement and early implementation, with no definitive, comprehensive end-to-end verification available yet.
Update · Jan 14, 2026, 06:40 PMin_progress
Brief restatement of the claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework with
China,
Beijing would buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years following the agreement.
Evidence of progress: Reports from October 2025 indicate China agreed to purchase 25 million metric tons annually as part of a leaders’ agreement, with an initial tranche of about 12 million metric tons to be bought by January 2026. AP coverage and subsequent reporting by major outlets corroborate the 12 million-ton near-term target and the three-year framework.
Current status and milestones: By December 2025, data suggested progress toward the long-term 25 million metric tons target, but there was no public, independent verification that the full annual minimum had been consistently delivered across all three years as of early 2026.
Reliability of sources and timelines: The core claim stems from official Treasury remarks and high-quality reporting (AP, CNBC). Treasury’s January 8, 2026 remarks reaffirmed the three-year framework, but independent verification of full-year purchases for each year was not evident as of that date.
Conclusion on completion status: As of 2026-01-14, the claim remains in_progress. Publicly available evidence shows a framework and near-term purchases were announced, with ongoing monitoring required to confirm full completion for all three years through 2028.
Notes for follow-up: Monitor USDA import data and Treasury/White House briefings through 2026–2028 to confirm adherence to the 25 million metric ton annual minimum.
Update · Jan 14, 2026, 04:09 PMin_progress
Claim restated: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years.
Evidence suggests a framework agreement was announced with China committing to roughly 25 million metric tons per year, beginning around late 2025, with a three-year horizon. Public reporting from credible outlets described China agreeing to buy 25 million metric tons annually as part of the agreement reached by its leaders (AP, CNBC-style coverage; dates around Oct 2025).
Progress to date: purchases were reported to begin in late 2025, with subsequent years expected to meet the annual 25 million metric-ton target, subject to production or geopolitical disruptions. Reliability notes: AP and CNBC are standard outlets for macro-trade policy reporting, and Treasury/White House communications referenced the framework.
Completion status remains uncertain moving into 2026, given the three-year horizon and potential weather, price, or policy variances affecting actual purchase volumes. Overall assessment: as of 2026-01-14, the framework and annual target were in place and progressing, but not yet completed.
Update · Jan 14, 2026, 02:16 PMin_progress
Claim restated: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence shows an initial framework was announced with an annual target of 25 million metric tons, and China began commitments under the agreement. Public reporting indicates China would start with 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025 and escalate toward 25 million per year for three years, as described by treasury and press reporting. As of mid-January 2026, there is no independently verifiable record confirming that China has consistently bought 25 million metric tons in each of the three years, only the framework and an interim 12 million-ton tranche being documented by major outlets (AP 2025-10-30; AP 2026-01-08; CNBC 2025-12-09).
Update · Jan 14, 2026, 12:26 PMin_progress
Summary of claim and current status: The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting confirms an agreement announced in late 2025 that China would buy 25 million metric tons per year for three years, with an initial tranche of 12 million metric tons to be purchased by January 2026. The current date (2026-01-14) and available coverage indicate the commitment is ongoing and not yet completed.
What evidence exists of progress: Independent reporting cites Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually over three years, beginning with 12 million metric tons purchased by January 2026 (AP News, Oct 30, 2025). Treasury communications around the time frame corroborate the framework and its three-year horizon. No public record shows formal repeal or suspension of the agreement as of mid-January 2026.
Completion status assessment: There is no evidence of full completion by January 2026, since the three-year period extends through 2028, and only the initial 12 million metric tons by January 2026 has been reported as a starting tranche. The available reporting treats the arrangement as an ongoing commitment rather than a concluded obligation fulfilled. Verification beyond January 2026 (e.g., quarterly or yearly procurement tallies) would be needed to determine full completion.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones reported include the 12 million metric tons to be purchased by January 2026 and the stated 25 million metric tons annually for three years. The primary public articulation of the commitment comes from AP coverage of Treasury remarks on October 30, 2025, and corroborating Treasury materials from January 2026. The lack of subsequent formal updates leaves the status as ongoing rather than completed.
Source reliability note: The principal sources are a high-quality government press presentation (Treasury remarks) and a widely recognized news service (Associated Press) reporting on the October 2025 announcement. While multiple outlets echoed the claim, the strongest corroboration remains the Treasury framing and AP’s coverage of the same Treasury statements. No disconfirming or contradictory official record has emerged by mid-January 2026.
Update · Jan 14, 2026, 10:31 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Reports in late 2025 indicated China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually as part of the leaders’ agreement, with an initial 12 million metric tons to be purchased by the end of 2025. Treasury statements in January 2026 reaffirm the framework and the 25 million metric tons annual target for the ensuing years.
Current status: As of January 2026, the 12 MMT by end-2025 appears to have been met or is near completion, and the long-term 25 MMT-per-year target through 2028 is maintained publicly. Public tallies confirming three full years of 25 MMT purchases are not yet available; thus completion cannot be declared.
Milestones: 2025-10-30: AP reported the 25 MMT annual agreement; 2026-01-08/09: Treasury reiterated the framework and ongoing implementation with the 25 MMT target. If followed strictly, the three-year window would run through 2028, contingent on annual fulfillment.
Source reliability: AP and Treasury communications are reputable; coverage from other mainstream outlets corroborates the framework and targets, though year-by-year purchase data beyond early 2025 remains to be independently verified.
Follow-up: 2026-12-31
Update · Jan 14, 2026, 08:14 AMin_progress
Claim restated: A new trade framework would require
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress includes public statements in October 2025 by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent describing an agreement in which China would resume purchases and commit to at least 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with an initial larger immediate purchase. Additional analysis from Purdue University’s farmdoc daily (Nov 2025) notes the deal includes 12 million metric tons in the last two months of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. Credible reporting from AP News corroborated the initial disclosure. Status as of January 13, 2026: the three-year commitment is not yet completed; the first year is in progress under the renewed framework. The reliability of sources is high for the stated terms (AP, university analysis) but actual year-by-year fulfillment depends on ongoing market and policy developments, requiring continued monitoring. Completion, to be declared complete, would require verifiable year-by-year purchases reaching the 25-million-ton threshold for each of 2026, 2027, and 2028.
Update · Jan 14, 2026, 06:17 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Publicly available documents indicate a formal commitment to 25 million metric tons annually for 2026–2028, anchored by White House fact sheets and Treasury remarks from early 2026. Progress toward meeting that annual target has been mixed, with early 2026 data showing shipments that in some analyses fell short of the 25 MMT pace. Independent verification relies on USDA tallies and subsequent press analyses, which suggest the framework exists but actual uptake is not consistently at the target as of January 2026.
Update · Jan 14, 2026, 02:25 AMin_progress
Claim restated: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence ties the 25 million metric ton figure to late-2025 announcements, including a White House fact sheet and Treasury remarks stating the commitment for 2026–2028, with 12 million metric tons in late 2025. Actual year-by-year purchases and official export data for 2026–2028 have not been publicly verified as completed as of early 2026.
Update · Jan 14, 2026, 12:37 AMin_progress
Claim restated: Under the new trade framework,
China would buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. The Treasury press materials reiterate this figure in remarks, but do not provide independent verification of a binding, enforceable commitment beyond promotional statements. Independent reporting has framed the 25 million figure as part of a deal reached by leaders, with a starting tranche of 12 million tons in the near term.
Progress evidence: Public coverage from late 2025 shows China committing to 12 million metric tons for the current season, with a longer-term pledge of 25 million tons annually for the following three years. Treasury secretary statements, AP reporting, and subsequent market coverage corroborate the numerical target, but emphasize a multi-year commitment rather than immediate delivery milestones.
Milestones and current status: The key milestone is China’s phased purchases: 12 million metric tons to begin, then an annual baseline of 25 million tons for three years if the deal remains intact. By January 2026, concrete delivery data for the three-year cycle was not publicly consolidated, and imports had not yet demonstrated full adherence to the 25 million-ton annual target. Market analyses in December 2025 indicated shipments were ramping up but far short of the long-run goal.
Completion assessment: As of the current date, there is no publicly documented completion of the three-year obligation; progress appears contingent on ongoing trade relations and China’s annual purchases. The available evidence describes commitments and partial fulfillment in the near term, but not full, verifiable compliance for all three years. The reliability of the claim rests on statements by Treasury officials and media outlets rather than independent logbooks of bilateral sales.
Source reliability note: Coverage from AP, CNBC, Reuters, and Treasury releases is high-quality and standard-bearer-level reporting; however, the claim itself relies heavily on government disclosures and executive statements. Given potential incentives around trade negotiations and domestic agricultural support, ongoing monitoring of actual shipment data and bilateral confirmations is essential for verification.
Synthesis judgment: The claim remains plausible but unconfirmed in full; current public sources indicate an initial 12 million-ton sale for the near term with a stated 25 million-ton annual target for three years, but no definitive completion by 2026. Given the lack of complete, independent verification of the three-year floor, the status is best categorized as in_progress.
- AP News, Bessent says US-China reach soybean agreement, Oct 30, 2025
- CNBC, China is buying U.S. soybeans again— but falling short of goal set by Trump trade agreement, Dec 9, 2025
- Reuters, China buys 12 million metric tons of soybeans this season, Oct 30, 2025
- Bloomberg, Bessent says China to buy 12 million tons of soybeans this year; 25 million tons annually for next three years, Oct 30, 2025
- U.S. Department of the Treasury, sb0353 press release, Jan 8, 2026
Update · Jan 13, 2026, 10:42 PMin_progress
Claim restated: Under a new trade framework,
China would be obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: A credible public report from October 2025 quotes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually as part of an agreement reached by its leaders, with an initial tranche of 12 million metric tons to be purchased between now and January (AP News). Other agricultural trade coverage around that period similarly described the framework as committing China to 25 MMT annually through a three-year term (DTN, Economic Times, FarmDoc Daily). These sources collectively indicate negotiation culminated in a three-year commitment starting in late 2025.
Current status and completion status: As of January 13, 2026, the framework is described as a three-year commitment, with no specified end date beyond the three-year window. There is no evidence in the cited materials that the obligation has been legally terminated or fully completed, suggesting the arrangement remains in_effect and in_progress for the duration.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones include the announcement of a 25 MMT annual purchase commitment (late Oct 2025), an initial 12 MMT delivery by January 2026, and the three-year term through roughly late 2028. The reporting outlets do not indicate any cancellation or rollback of the framework.
Reliability and sourcing: The claim is supported by multiple reputable outlets, notably AP News, which covered the 25 MMT commitment and its three-year duration. Additional coverage from DTN and agricultural policy analyses corroborates the scale and three-year frame. These sources are considered high-quality for factual reporting on trade and policy.
Overall assessment: The available public reporting as of early January 2026 supports that a 25 MMT per year commitment exists for three years and is ongoing, with progress anchored to the late-2025 agreement and the January 2026 initial delivery.
Update · Jan 13, 2026, 08:19 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article asserted that under a new trade framework
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years starting in 2026.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates that China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons per year as part of a late-2025 agreement. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly stated that China would purchase 25 million metric tons annually for 2026–2028, with an initial step of resuming purchases including a reported 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025 or early 2026. Media coverage from AP News corroborates the 25 million metric tons annual pledge, while other outlets reiterated the three-year commitment.
Status relative to completion: As of January 13, 2026, the commitment exists but the three-year period has not yet elapsed. The 2026 year has begun, and three full years of at least 25 million metric tons would conclude in 2028. Public statements imply the framework intends 2026–2028 purchases at or above 25 million metric tons annually, but year-by-year purchase data for 2026 requires ongoing verification.
Reliability note: The cited sources include AP News and Treasury statements, which are credible, though independent verification of annual purchases is still needed as data emerge. Continuous monitoring of official disclosures and independent trade data is recommended for a definitive assessment.
Update · Jan 13, 2026, 06:39 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: A new trade framework reportedly obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Progress evidence: Reports from October 2025 indicate China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually, with an initial tranche of about 12 million metric tons to be purchased by early 2026, as described by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Status vs completion: As of January 13, 2026, no independent verification confirms all three annual targets have been met; the arrangement remains ongoing and not yet completed. Milestones and dates: The deal’s core milestones include up to 12 MMT to be purchased by early 2026 and a three-year commitment to 25 MMT annually through 2028, per contemporary reporting. Source reliability: AP News is the primary non-government source confirming the deal, citing official statements; cross-verification with additional outlets would strengthen confidence.
Update · Jan 13, 2026, 04:05 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually for the ensuing three years, with an initial tranche of about 12 million metric tons expected by January 2026 and larger annual purchases anticipated through 2028 (12 MMT in late 2025, then 25 MMT/year in subsequent years) per sources covering Treasury statements and trade analyses (AP, DTN, Purdue Ag, CNBC).
Evidence of completion status: As of mid-January 2026, there is no independent confirmation that China has already met the full 25
MMT/year target for the entire three-year window. Reporting describes commitments and projected annual volumes, but verifiable fulfillment data for 2026–2028 remains limited or not yet published in official, contemporaneous sources.
Milestones and dates: The arrangement centers on an initial 12 MMT by January 2026 and then 25 MMT annually for the following three years (through 2028), with coverage and commentary appearing in late 2025 and early 2026 press coverage. Exact shipment receipts and official verification from trade authorities have not been publicly published in the sources reviewed.
Source reliability note: Reporting from AP, CNBC, DTN, Purdue Agricultural News, and other trade-focused outlets provides contemporaneous coverage of the claim and stated commitments. Treasury press materials offer official framing but do not, at this date, provide complete shipment-by-shipment verification. Taken together, the materials are credible for the existence of the commitment and early progress, but independent fulfillment data remain limited.
Update · Jan 13, 2026, 02:12 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article described a new trade framework in which
China would buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence of progress: AP News reported on Oct 30, 2025, that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China agreed to purchase 25 million metric tons annually as part of a leaders’ agreement, with an initial 12 million metric tons to be purchased by January 2026. The Treasury’s own press content from Jan 2026 echoes the same framing, noting that under the framework China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons per year for three years. Completion status: As of 2026-01-13, there is an announced framework and staged milestones (12 million tons initial by January 2026) but no evidence of full three-year annual 25 million-ton purchases being completed; the arrangement is described as ongoing with annual commitments rather than a finished milestone. Dates and milestones: Initial 12 million tons to be purchased by January 2026 is the concrete near-term milestone; the sustained annual 25 million-ton purchases would cover 2026–2028 if fulfilled. Source reliability: The Associated Press provides independent corroboration of the claim, and the U.S. Treasury page repeats the framework language; both are considered high-quality, cautioning that the deal is contingent on ongoing negotiations and implementation. Follow-up reliability: Given the political and market sensitivities, continued verification from authoritative outlets and official treasury disclosures will be necessary to confirm year-by-year fulfillment moving forward.
Update · Jan 13, 2026, 01:25 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The completion condition would be three consecutive years of purchases at or above 25 million metric tons each year.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting in late October 2025 attributed a statement to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claiming that China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually as part of discussions between the two countries. Coverage from AP and other outlets captured this as a promise tied to an agreement, with a note that some purchases were expected immediately and continued over three years.
Evidence of current status: As of mid-January 2026, there is no widely corroborated, official, or legally binding document confirming a formal three-year purchase obligation of 25 million metric tons per year. The Treasury release cited is a remarks transcript rather than a binding agreement, and subsequent independent reporting does not show verifiable, concrete milestones or enforceable terms beyond the initial public claim.
Milestones and dates: The publicly reported milestones center on the October 30, 2025 statements about commitments and the expectation of initial purchases by January (2026). There is no confirmed third-year completion date or contract-level detail available in accessible official records to date.
Source reliability and balance: Primary sources include a Treasury remarks page (official government source) and reputable news outlets reporting Secretary Bessent’s statements. The Treasury page frames the assertion as part of remarks, not as a formal treaty or binding contract, which limits evidentiary weight. Overall, sources suggest the claim exists as a stated commitment but without confirmed, verifiable progress or completion as of now.
Update · Jan 13, 2026, 10:20 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence of progress: Public reporting in late 2025 indicated China agreed to 12 million metric tons by year-end 2025 and 25 million metric tons annually for the next three years, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly confirming the framework. Current status: As of 2026-01-12, the 25 MMT per year target is framed for 2026–2028, but completion will hinge on each year’s purchases and ongoing verification; government statements remain the primary confirmers.
Update · Jan 13, 2026, 08:36 AMin_progress
Restatement of claim: The article asserts a new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: AP reporting on Oct. 30, 2025, stated China had agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually as part of an agreement among leaders, with an initial tranche of 12 million tons by the end of 2025 and a three-year commitment outlined. Subsequent coverage through January 2026 reiterates the existence of the commitment and its three-year horizon, but concrete year-by-year totals for 2026 and 2027 are not yet confirmed publicly.
Status assessment: As of Jan 12, 2026, a formal commitment to 25 million tons per year for three years exists, but three full years at or above 25 million tons have not been publicly verified. Available reporting indicates progress toward the target rather than full completion across all three years.
Reliability and follow-up: The core claim is based on AP reporting, which is a high-quality wire service; corroboration from Treasury or White House communications would strengthen verification. To determine completion, future data on 2026 and 2027 purchases should be reviewed once available.
Update · Jan 13, 2026, 04:26 AMin_progress
Claim restated: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years, beginning with an initial pledge of 12 million tons by the end of February 2026 and totaling 25 million annually thereafter.
Progress evidence: In late 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other officials announced the framework and the 25 million-ton target. Reports in early January 2026 indicate China’s state stockpiler
Sinograin has begun purchasing U.S. soybeans, with total purchases approaching 8.5–10 million tons by early January 2026 and shipments expected March–May 2026. Coverage from AP and Reuters cites the 12 million-ton milestone by end-February 2026 as part of the agreement, with ongoing monitoring of purchases.
Status of completion: The three-year annual 25 million-ton obligation has been publicly pledged, and early-year buying activity suggests momentum toward the targets. However, as of 2026-01-12 there is no independently verified confirmation that China has consistently met 25 million tons in a single year, given import pace and seasonal dynamics.
Key dates and milestones: October 30, 2025 (public framing of the 25 million-ton commitment); end of February 2026 (12 million-ton initial purchase milestone reported by officials); January 2026 (ongoing U.S. soy purchases tracked by Reuters/AP). Monitoring will continue to determine whether the 25 million-ton annual target is met each year for 2026–2028.
Source reliability note: The core claim originated from U.S. Treasury remarks and was corroborated by AP and Reuters reporting on actual purchases by Sinograin in early January 2026. Coverage from AP, Reuters, and wire services is consistent about the framework and early buying activity, though precise annual fulfillment for the first year remains to be independently verified over time.
Update · Jan 13, 2026, 02:41 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Current status: multiple reputable outlets report that China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually for three years, with initial purchases proceeding in late 2025. The Treasury press release and accompanying coverage indicate progress toward the annual target, but three full years of purchases have not been completed as of the current date.
Evidence of progress: public statements and press reporting confirm annual purchase commitments and initial shipments, suggesting implementation is underway rather than finished.
Reliability and dates: sources include official Treasury communications and major outlets (AP, CNBC). While the agreement is documented, exact contractual details and verification of every year’s fulfillment are not independently published here.
Follow-up approach: monitor annual U.S. soybean export volumes to China and official confirmations at year-ends to determine whether each of the three-year targets is met.
Update · Jan 13, 2026, 12:30 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article claimed that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting in late October 2025 states China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually for three years, starting with an initial 12 million metric tons to be purchased by January 2026 (AP News; other outlets echoed the figure). This establishes a three-year commitment and provides an initial purchase milestone.
Current status: As of January 12, 2026, the framework appears to be in the implementation phase, with the three-year commitment in place and a first-year purchase target of 25 million metric tons per year specified, including an initial 12 million metric tons to begin promptly. There is no evidence of cancellation or renegotiation of the core commitment in the sources reviewed.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones include the October 30, 2025 agreement announcement, the stated three-year duration, and the January 2026 start for the initial purchases. No later completion date has been reached; the completion condition would be three consecutive years with at least 25 million metric tons purchased each year, which would occur through 2028 if the terms hold. Source reliability: The claim is corroborated by reporting from AP News and reproduced in additional outlets; Treasury-facing communications also referenced related remarks, but the primary, verifiable milestones originate from AP coverage of the agreement rather than an official U.S. government treaty document.
Update · Jan 12, 2026, 10:41 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Public reporting confirms China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually as part of an agreement reported by Treasury and reiterated by AP, with an initial tranche of 12 million metric tons slated to begin by January. The three-year commitment and the 25 million metric tons annual target are described by Treasury in its January 8, 2026 remarks, and AP coverage notes the ongoing three-year timeline. Evidence so far shows initial purchases and a formal commitment, but the status of the full annual 25 million metric tons in each of the three years remains contingent on future deliveries and verification.
Update · Jan 12, 2026, 08:34 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The cited Treasury briefing framed this as a three-year commitment beginning with a 12 million-ton initial purchase. The claim relies on statements attributed to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent during a meeting with
Chinese and U.S. leaders.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates China began purchasing U.S. soybeans under this framework, with early purchases in late 2025 and ongoing activity into January 2026. Reuters (Jan 6, 2026) and related outlets note that China’s purchases totaled around 8.5–10 million tons in the early months of the window, with progress toward the pledged 12 million tons by year-end 2025 and additional annual quantities contemplated.
Progress toward the 25 million metric tons annually: Media coverage in late 2025 and early 2026 described an agreement for China to buy roughly 25 million tons per year for three years, but the initial shipments and incremental buys suggest the framework is moving forward rather than fully completed. The initial 12 million-ton tranche and subsequent shipments indicate ongoing, not final, fulfillment of the yearly target.
Milestones and dates: Key milestones reported include: (1) October 2025 – public statements claiming a 25 million ton/year framework with an initial 12 million ton start; (2) January 2026 – Reuters and other outlets report cumulative U.S. soybean purchases approaching 10 million tons by early January 2026, implying continued activity toward the annual target; (3) ongoing annual commitments would extend through the three-year period if the framework remains in force. No independent, government-end date has been announced to mark formal completion.
Source reliability note: The principal claim originated from a Treasury remarks page and was echoed by major outlets (AP, Reuters) reporting contemporaneous development. Reuters and other reputable outlets in early January 2026 corroborate ongoing purchases, though they describe progress rather than a formally closed completion. Given the evolving nature of trade deals and public statements, the reporting aligns with a progress-in-progress status rather than a final, finished outcome.
Update · Jan 12, 2026, 06:42 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserted that under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly described the framework and its targets, including an initial 12 million metric tons purchase in the current year and a commitment to 25 million tons annually for the following three years, as reported in Treasury remarks and coverage around Oct 30, 2025. Additional reputable coverage corroborates the 25 million-ton annual target for the three-year period. The Treasury release itself confirms the framework and its expectations, providing an official basis for ongoing purchases. Evidence of completion status: As of 2026-01-12, the three-year, 25 million-ton annual purchases have not yet been completed, with the initial year reportedly involving a smaller volume, indicating the program remains underway. Relevant dates and milestones: 2025-10-30 announcements of the framework; 2026-01-08 Treasury remarks detailing structure and targets; 2026-01-12 current date for status. Source reliability: The claim relies on official Treasury communications and established news reporting (Treasury SB0353 press release; AP News coverage).
Update · Jan 12, 2026, 04:22 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China must buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. Publicly available material directly confirming and operationalizing this exact obligation is not corroborated by independent, high-quality sources beyond a Treasury page that appears embedded in politically charged content. The primary reference date is January 8, 2026, with no widely reported, verifiable milestones from credible agencies or major outlets confirming execution or enforcement of the purchase mandate.
There is some evidence of discussion or rhetoric around a 25 million metric ton figure in the cited Treasury page, but that page also contains partisan framing and language tied to a specific political narrative. Other reputable outlets have not produced independent confirmations of a formal, binding three-year purchase obligation by China for U.S. soybeans, nor any official government document detailing such an agreement. Given the lack of cross-confirmation from neutral, authoritative sources, the claim remains unverified as completed or active policy.
In terms of progress indicators, no consistently verifiable milestones (e.g., contractual settlements, official trade statements, or shipment data) have been published by credible sources to demonstrate that China began purchasing 25 million metric tons annually or that the three-year timeline has commenced. The absence of corroborating data undermines claims of completed or progressing implementation. The burden of proof rests on independent verification from trusted outlets or official government communications beyond the speculative framing observed in the available material.
Reliability assessment: the Treasury page in question appears to be the sole primary source asserting the framework, while major, non-partisan outlets have not independently validated the claim. The surrounding content on the Treasury page includes strongly partisan political messaging, which warrants caution about reliability. Based on current publicly verifiable information, the claim should be treated as unconfirmed and not established as a completed obligation.
Update · Jan 12, 2026, 02:11 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Public documentation shows the framework and aspirational figure were articulated by U.S. Treasury officials in early January 2026, with earlier reporting of a broader deal that reportedly outlined sizable soybean purchases. As of January 12, 2026, there is no independently verified, year-by-year record confirming China has fulfilled 25 million metric tons in each of the three consecutive years promised in the claim.
Evidence of progress includes: (1) Treasury remarks dated January 8, 2026, announcing the framework and the 25 million metric tons figure as part of an agreement cited by Secretary Scott Bessent. (2) News coverage from late 2025 noting China had resumed soybean purchases under a trade deal that initially targeted smaller volumes. (3) January 2026 coverage tying the 25 million metric tons pledge to the framework mentioned by Treasury, without confirmation of three-year fulfillment.
At this time, the completion status remains unclear. The January 2026 Treasury remarks assert the commitment, but concrete purchases of 25 million metric tons per year for three consecutive years have not been independently corroborated by USDA data or other neutral trackers.
Update · Jan 12, 2026, 12:23 PMin_progress
Claim restated: Under the new framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years (2026–2028).
Evidence of progress: The White House fact sheet (Nov 1, 2025) and Treasury/administration statements described a ramp to 25 MMT annually in 2026–2028, with an initial 12 MMT by late 2025. Reuters and other reputable outlets reported ongoing implementation and ongoing purchases consistent with the framework as of early January 2026.
Status and milestones: By early January 2026,
Chinese buyers reportedly resumed U.S. soybean purchases, with activity indicating execution toward the annual 25 MMT target, and
Sinograin activity noted in week-long cargo purchases. The three-year completion condition remains in force through 2028 unless renegotiated.
Reliability of sources: Primary verification comes from the White House fact sheet, Treasury press materials, and Reuters reporting, all consistent about the framework and near-term milestones; no credible public documents indicate cancellation or reversal as of the current date.
Follow-up considerations: To confirm year-by-year fulfillment, monitor monthly/quarterly soybean shipments and Sinograin purchases through 2026–2028; the stated completion date is 2028 for the 25 MMT annual target.
Update · Jan 12, 2026, 10:26 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, with three consecutive years of no less than 25 million metric tons each year.
Public statements and reporting in late 2025 confirm that
Beijing and U.S. officials described an agreement or framework in which China would buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years, as referenced by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and covered by outlets such as AP and CNBC.
As of early January 2026, evidence shows China has begun or continued substantial purchases of U.S. soybeans, with Reuters reporting that
Sinograin purchased about 10 cargoes in a week and total purchases near 10 million metric tons by Jan 6, 2026. This indicates ongoing trade activity aligned with the framework, but does not independently verify the full annual minimum for each year.
There is no public evidence by January 2026 that the three-year target has been completed; ongoing trade activity suggests progress toward the target but the three-year fulfillment remains unconfirmed. Reliable sources include the Treasury remarks (Jan 8, 2026), Reuters (Jan 6, 2026), AP (Oct 2025), and CNBC coverage of the broader context.
Update · Jan 12, 2026, 08:08 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The Treasury press material and contemporaneous reporting describe a three-year commitment to buy 25 million metric tons per year.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting in late 2025 indicates China resumed purchases of U.S. soybeans and commitments were articulated to reach 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with initial purchases and framework details discussed by Treasury officials and media outlets (e.g., CNBC on 2025-12-09; Spectrum Local News 2025-10-30). These accounts suggest the framework existed and procurement began aligning with the target.
Current status and milestones: As of January 11, 2026, there is no independently verifiable, year-by-year transaction record confirming the full three-year, 25 million metric ton annual target has been consistently met for 2026, 2027, and 2028. Reported coverage indicates a commitment and ongoing purchases, but concrete milestone-by-milestone fulfillment for 2026 remains to be substantiated by official trade data.
Reliability and caveats: Primary documentation from the Treasury site (SB0353 and related remarks) is the strongest anchor for the claim, but secondary coverage from CNBC and regional outlets should be cross-checked against official trade data and
Chinese customs/national reports for verification. Given the incentives and political framing surrounding trade deals, remain cautious about certainty until comprehensive trade-flow data are published. Sources cited include CNBC (2025-12-09), The Gazette (2025-10-30), Spectrum Local News (2025-10-30), and Purdue-style analyses, which collectively support the premise but do not alone prove full, uninterrupted fulfillment.
Update · Jan 12, 2026, 03:57 AMin_progress
Claim restates that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Public reporting from late 2025 describes a 25 million-ton annual commitment as part of an agreement reached by U.S. and
Chinese leaders, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighting the figure. However, initial reporting indicates China will begin with 12 million metric tons between now and January 2026, suggesting the full three-year, 25 million-ton annual target is not yet in effect for the first year. The available sources treat the 25 million figure as a stated objective of the agreement rather than an immediately binding yearly purchase level.
Update · Jan 12, 2026, 02:01 AMin_progress
Claim restated: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting in late 2025 indicated China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three consecutive years as part of the deal; multiple outlets cited the 25 million-ton annual target for the three-year frame.
Status of completion: As of January 2026 there is no single completion event; the arrangement is a multi-year purchase target rather than a one-off fulfillment, so status is best described as in_progress rather than complete.
Dates and milestones: The initial agreement emerged around October 2025, with annual targets of 25 million metric tons for each year through 2027 (three-year window). Independent verification of annual quantities beyond stated commitments has not been uniformly published by primary government sources.
Reliability of sources: Coverage from AP, Axios, AgWeb, CNBC, Yahoo Finance, and Treasury listings corroborates the multi-year 25 million metric ton target. The sources are generally high-quality, but assessments should account for potential policy shifts and market factors that could affect actual purchases.
Reliability caveat: Given geopolitical and market dynamics, actual procurement may diverge from targets; continued reporting on bilateral purchases is needed for confirmation.
Update · Jan 12, 2026, 12:22 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: Reports indicate an October 30, 2025 agreement establishing 25 million metric tons per year for three years, with an initial phase of 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025. Current status: By January 2026, coverage describes the arrangement as in effect and purchases ongoing, but the three-year completion has not yet elapsed. Reliability and milestones: The sources derive from mainstream outlets reflecting Treasury statements and White House briefings, noting the 2025–2028 framework and the October 2025 implementation milestones.
Update · Jan 11, 2026, 10:04 PMin_progress
Restatement of claim: The article asserted that under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, beginning with an initial purchase promised by January 2026. Evidence of progress: Public statements in late October 2025 from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described an agreement in which China would buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years. Evidence of completion status: As of January 11, 2026, there is no public, independently verified confirmation that China is consistently purchasing 25 million metric tons in each of the three years, nor any announced formal milestones for 2026–2028 beyond initial claims. Dates and milestones: The most concrete milestone reported was the October 2025 statement; no subsequent enforcement dates or shipment records have been publicly reported to verify full year-by-year fulfillment. Reliability note: The primary public references are the Treasury remarks and coverage from AP News describing the agreement; there is no corroborating, verifiable data on actual 2026 purchases to date, and the claim rests on political statements rather than audited trade data.
Update · Jan 11, 2026, 07:57 PMcomplete
Claim restated: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years.
Evidence of progress and scope: Multiple outlets reported China agreeing to 25 million metric tons annually, with an initial 12 million metric tons to be purchased by early 2026, as part of the deal disclosed in late 2025. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly confirmed the three-year, 25 million ton per year commitment (AP, 2025-10-30; AP, 2026-01-08; CNBC, 2025-12-09).
Completion status: As of January 2026, officials described the commitment as part of the agreed framework, indicating progress toward the stated annual purchase level over three years.
Dates and milestones: Key markers include the late-2025 deal announcement, the start of deliveries announced for early 2026 (12 million tons upfront), and the three-year duration of the commitment (AP coverage; Treasury remarks).
Source reliability: Coverage from AP, CNBC, and AgWeb is corroborated by the Treasury’s remarks page, enhancing reliability. These sources are considered high-quality and are less prone to manipulation than lower-quality outlets.
Follow-up note: To verify ongoing adherence, monitor quarterly soybean purchase data and official Treasury/White House statements through 2028.
Update · Jan 11, 2026, 06:25 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts a new trade framework obligates
China to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. The assertion is prominent in remarks from U.S. Treasury officials describing an agreement with China, and has been echoed by multiple outlets reporting the statement as part of a broader trade deal.
Evidence of progress: Public remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (Oct 30, 2025) state that China agreed to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually for three years, with initial purchases beginning in the near term. Subsequent reporting in reputable outlets corroborates that China committed to these yearly purchase levels as part of a negotiated framework. The Treasury site itself features the language within its remarks, indicating the claim originated from an official source.
Current status: As of Jan 11, 2026, there is no widely available evidence showing actual fulfillment of three consecutive annual purchases at or above the 25 million metric ton threshold. Public trade data through early 2026 does not conclusively confirm full three-year purchases; reports describe the agreement but do not document complete fulfillment for all three years.
Completion assessment: The completion condition—China purchasing no less than 25 million metric tons each year for three years—remains unverified in official trade data and public reporting. The materials point to an agreement and a pathway for purchases, with early commitments reported, but no confirmed end-state fulfillment documented publicly.
Source reliability note: Core claim originates from an official Treasury remarks page and has been independently reported by AP News and other outlets. Given potential political framing, ongoing monitoring of actual import statistics and follow-up confirmations will be critical to confirm completion of the stated purchase mandate.
Update · Jan 11, 2026, 04:09 PMin_progress
Claim restated: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence from late-2025 reporting indicates China pledged to buy a minimum of 25 million metric tons annually for the three-year period, with an initial year of 12 million metric tons already underway. Multiple outlets corroborated the high-level arrangement, though initial-year volumes fell short of the long-term target.
Progress to date: Reports in October 2025 quoted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating China would buy at least 25 million metric tons per year for three years, with the first-year volume described as 12 million metric tons. By December 2025, Reuters/AP-style coverage reiterated the 25 million-per-year framework, while noting the first-year delivery was around 12 million tons. The official Treasury page referencing the remarks likewise confirms the framework and target, but does not detail a confirmed in-year fulfillment.
Completion status: There is no publicly confirmed completion of the three-year 25 million-ton annual target as of January 11, 2026. Early-year imports did not reach 25 million tons, indicating ongoing progress toward the promised level. The available reporting treats the arrangement as a multi-year commitment that is still being implemented rather than a finished contract.
Milestones and dates: The key milestone is the three-year annual purchase floor of 25 million metric tons starting with the year following the agreement (reported in Oct 2025). Initial-year volumes (~12 million tons) were cited in late-2025 coverage, suggesting implementation remains underway. The Treasury’s January 2026 materials reference the framework, but do not provide a year-by-year compliance update beyond the initial statements.
Source reliability note: Coverage from AP, CNBC, Axios, and Treasury remarks provides a consistent narrative of a three-year, 25 million-ton framework, though initial-year data vary by outlet and crop conditions. Given the high quality of Treasury communications and major wire/industry outlets, the claim is treated as plausible but not yet completed as of the date analyzed. Sources: AP (2025-10-30), CNBC (2025-12-09), Axios (2025-10-30), Treasury press materials (2026-01-08).
Update · Jan 11, 2026, 02:04 PMin_progress
Claim restated: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress evidence: In October 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China had agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with an initial surge in purchases through January 2026 (AP News, 2025-10-30; DTN, 2025-10-30). Media coverage through late 2025 framed the deal as restoring larger U.S. soybean exports to China and specifying the 25 million metric ton annual commitment through 2028 (CNBC, 2025-12-09; AgWeb, 2025-11-04).
Current status: By January 2026, Treasury and major outlets describe an agreement in place that commits China to 25 million metric tons per year for three years, but three full years have not elapsed, so the completion condition (three consecutive years of at least 25 million tons) has not yet been met.
Key milestones: Initial purchases expected by January 2026, followed by ongoing annual commitments of 25 million metric tons through 2028, per public reporting (AP News, DTN, AgWeb, US News, CNBC).
Source reliability note: The cited sources—AP News, CNBC, DTN, AgWeb, US News—are mainstream trade and policy outlets with corroborating reporting. While they collectively support the existence of the framework and its targets, the exact implementation details remain subject to ongoing verification as the three-year period progresses.
Update · Jan 11, 2026, 12:18 PMin_progress
Summary of the claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China will buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This exactly mirrors the pledge publicized by U.S. officials, including Treasury remarks, that China would purchase 25 million metric tons annually for a three-year period beginning with an initial tranche.
Evidence of progress: Public statements indicate the framework was announced in late 2025, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that China would start by purchasing about 12 million metric tons between now and January and that the 25 million-per-year commitment would apply for three years (through 2028). The Treasury remarks and AP coverage corroborate the three-year duration and the annual target (25 million metric tons) as part of the agreement.
Current status and milestones: As of January 2026, China has begun executing the agreed terms, including the initial 12 million metric tons tranche, and remains bound to the 25 million metric tons per year for three years, per the stated framework. There is no published completion of the full three-year cycle yet, given the ongoing year-by-year purchases through 2028.
Reliability and context: Primary sources include the U.S. Treasury press materials and AP reporting (reliable, mainstream outlets). Coverage from multiple outlets (CNBC,
Axios, US News, AP) aligns on the plan and three-year horizon, though real-world volumes in later quarters should be monitored for any deviations or adjustments. The framing of the commitment derives from official statements rather than independent verification of every shipment.
Update · Jan 11, 2026, 10:32 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The Treasury-backed framework purports that
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting describes an initial 12 million metric tons purchase for late 2025, with a longer-term commitment for 25 million metric tons annually through 2028, as part of the November 2025 agreement.
Status of completion: As of 2026-01-10, the full three-year annual target has not yet been fulfilled; purchases toward the 25 million metric tons annual goal are ongoing but not yet verified for each year.
Notes on milestones and reliability: The deal’s published terms and subsequent analyses (e.g., CNBC reports, farmdoc daily/Purdue analyses) outline a staged path rather than immediate full execution, and they rely on official statements and industry data.
Update · Jan 11, 2026, 08:00 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserted that under a new trade framework,
China would buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The verbatim wording indicated a binding three-year commitment of 25 million metric tons per year.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates that, in late October 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China agreed to purchase 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with an initial tranche of about 12 million metric tons to be shipped between now and January 2026. This establishes an initial step toward the three-year target but does not prove full annual fulfillment in 2026. AP News explicitly documented this arrangement as of 2025-10-30.
Current status and milestones: As of January 2026, the deal was described as ongoing, with a three-year duration and a scheduled ramp from the initial 12 million metric tons toward the full 25 million metric tons per year. Independent sources corroborate the framework, but there is no publicly available, conclusive confirmation that every subsequent year will meet or exceed 25 million metric tons, beyond the initial year’s plan.
Source reliability note: The most concrete reporting comes from AP News, a widely regarded source for fact-based reporting. A Treasury page carrying the claim appeared on the Treasury site around January 2026 but contained content that appeared inconsistent with other coverage and included language that suggested a political framing. Given the correlation with AP’s contemporaneous reporting, the claim remains plausible but not yet fully verified for all three years.
Update · Jan 11, 2026, 03:59 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. This would amount to 75 million metric tons total if the three-year commitment is fulfilled.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with an initial tranche of 12 million metric tons to be purchased by January 2026, and the 25 million per year target thereafter (AP News, Oct 30, 2025; Treasury remarks, Jan 8, 2026).
Completion status: As of 2026-01-10, the three-year commitment has not yet reached its end, and only the initial 12 million metric tons by January 2026 has been publicly described; full fulfillment depends on China’s ongoing implementation under the framework.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones include the 12 million metric tons buy by January 2026 and the stated 25 million metric tons per year for the following three years (AP coverage; Treasury communications).
Reliability note: The claim is supported by AP reporting and official Treasury statements, which are credible sources for this contractual framing, though enforceability and detailed terms are not publicly itemized.
Update · Jan 11, 2026, 02:02 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Public reporting confirms an agreement framing 25 million metric tons per year for three years and identifies initial purchases (start with a 12 million metric ton tranche) with ongoing monitoring of progress. Evidence suggests movement toward the milestone but does not show final year-by-year confirmation of fulfillment as of early 2026. The available reporting from AP and CNBC indicates progress and intent, but definitive, complete-year fulfillment for all three years remains unresolved and contingent on ongoing bilateral implementation. Sources include AP News, CNBC, and the U.S. Treasury press materials, which collectively lend credible, but evolving, coverage of the commitment. Follow-up date: 2026-02-28
Update · Jan 11, 2026, 12:07 AMin_progress
Claim restated: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years (2026–2028).
Evidence of progress: Public documents released in late 2025 outline a phased purchase plan, including an initial commitment to acquire at least 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans in the last two months of 2025 and a stated obligation to purchase at least 25 million metric tons in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028. This framing is reflected in White House materials and corroborated by AP and other outlets.
Status of completion: As of January 2026, the three-year commitment is in the negotiation/implementation phase; there is no evidence of a completed conclusion or termination of the agreement, and the three-year horizon remains active according to public documents.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones include the White House fact sheet dated November 1, 2025, confirming 12 MMT in late 2025 and 25 MMT annually for 2026–2028, with AP reporting confirming the 25 MMT pledge. The sources cited below provide corroboration and context for the timeline and figures.
Reliability note: The cited materials come from a White House fact sheet and reputable news outlets (AP, CNBC, NBC), making the figures credible; however, coverage may reflect administration framing of the agreement.
Update · Jan 10, 2026, 10:14 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. Progress evidence shows China publicly agreeing to 25 million metric tons annually as part of leaders’ negotiations, with initial purchases of about 12 million tons anticipated before year-end 2025. Major outlets (AP, CNBC) quote Treasury officials confirming the three-year commitment, though full-year fulfillment details remain pending.
Update · Jan 10, 2026, 08:00 PMin_progress
Restatement of the claim: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting indicates a pledge in late 2025 for China to buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years, supported by Treasury remarks and subsequent coverage (AP reporting; US News synthesis).
Status and milestones: As of 2026-01-10, there is no independently verified completion of all three years; initial purchases and quarterly progress have been described, but no audited fulfillment data confirms each year’s target.
Source reliability: Primary evidence comes from AP reporting and Treasury/White House briefings; coverage from US News and CNBC corroborates the pledge but emphasizes ongoing uncertainty and market factors. No definitive transactions spanning all three years have been publicly audited or publicly disclosed by government trade data at this date.
Notes on dates: The plan called for a January 2026 start for the first tranche and 25 MMT annually for the following three years, placing the completion window through 2028 unless otherwise extended or revised.
Overall assessment: The claim remains an active pledge with partial progress reported, but complete fulfillment over the three-year period has not yet been demonstrated publicly.
Update · Jan 10, 2026, 06:22 PMin_progress
Restated claim: The Treasury press materials describe a framework under which
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting from October 2025 indicates China committed to buy 25 million metric tons per year for a three-year span, with an initial smaller tranche (e.g., roughly 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025) to begin the arrangement. This information was echoed by multiple outlets and summarized by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as part of a broader deal addressing U.S.-China agricultural purchases.
Current status: As of 2026-01-10, there is ongoing reporting about the commitment, but no independently verifiable, official government-confirmed milestone ledger published confirming that all three annual 25 million metric ton targets have been achieved or are on track beyond the initial year. The primary source detailing the obligation remains the Treasury statement and contemporaneous paraphrased summaries from media.
Dates and milestones: Key reference points include the October 2025 announcements signaling 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with initial purchases initiating by late 2025, and the January 2026 Treasury press materials reiterating the framework. No published, government-verified quarterly or annual fulfillment report has been found to date confirming full completion.
Source reliability note: The principal claim originates from a Treasury press release and was corroborated by business and policy outlets that reported on Secretary Bessent’s statements. Given the topic’s sensitivity and incentives for political framing, cross-referencing with independent trade data or official import-tracking releases would strengthen verification. The coverage from DTN and AgWeb is policy-reporting rather than primary supply-chain data; Treasury materials remain the most direct source for the stated commitment.
Update · Jan 10, 2026, 04:03 PMin_progress
Claim restated: The article claims a new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. It asserts three consecutive annual minimum purchases of 25 million tons each year as the completion condition. The source material provided is a Treasury press-quote embedded in a January 2026 page, but independent corroboration from other reputable outlets is not readily available. The claim, as such, hinges on a single, unverified statement without widely verified enforcement documentation.
Evidence of progress: Public-facing sources publicly confirming concrete progress toward this specific 25 million-ton pledge appear lacking. The Treasury page retrieved (sb0353/January 8, 2026) contains a speech excerpt that echoes the 25 million-ton figure, but there is no corroborating press release, contract, or official agreement posted elsewhere to independently verify the commitment or its terms. No credible, third-party confirmations of actual purchases or milestone shipments have been identified in accessible high-quality sources.
Completion status: There is no verifiable completion to date. The claimed three-year minimum purchase framework cannot be deemed completed without documented annual purchase totals or an official notification from the U.S. government or China. Given the absence of corroborating sources and the potential for misinterpretation or misquotation in the available material, the status remains uncertain and likely not fulfilled.
Dates and milestones: The only date tied to the claim in the provided material is January 8, 2026 (the Treasury page listing a remarks or press activity). There are no published milestones, such as signed contracts, shipment dates, or government confirmations for any year of the three-year period. Reliability notes: The Treasury page is a primary source, but the surrounding context appears to echo rhetoric consistent with partisan messaging and lacks independent, corroborating coverage from high-quality outlets. Given the absence of multiple independent verifications, treat the claim as unconfirmed until corroborated by credible official documents or reporting.
Update · Jan 10, 2026, 02:27 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, effectively binding China to three consecutive annual minimum purchases of 25 million metric tons.
Evidence of progress: Publicly verifiable evidence confirming such a binding commitment is not found in independent outlets or official records beyond the source material presented. A Treasury press page (SB0353) references related messaging in a broader speech context, but does not yield corroborating, concrete milestones or a clearly verifiable, enforceable framework with signed commitments from China to 25 million metric tons annually.
Completion status: There is no independently verifiable completion, formal signing date, or milestone timestamps showing three consecutive annual purchases reached or contractually guaranteed. The available material either contextualizes political rhetoric or appears inconsistent with standard Treasury press-release formats, without verifiable execution data.
Dates and milestones: The only date in question is the publication date of the Treasury page (January 8, 2026) and the surrounding remarks. No subsequent actions, annual purchase tallies, or renewal notes have been publicly documented as of today. The absence of a concrete signing event or progress log suggests the claim remains unproven and unverified.
Source reliability note: The Treasury page retrieved for SB0353 includes speech-like content and a claim about China’s soybean purchases that cannot be independently corroborated in mainstream financial or agricultural trade outlets. Given the lack of corroboration and the unusual presentation on a Treasury site, the reliability of the claim is questionable and requires independent confirmation from multiple high-quality sources.
Overall assessment: Based on available public records, the claim lacks verifiable progress or confirmation. It remains unproven whether China has agreed to a formal three-year minimum purchase of 25 million metric tons annually, and no completion date is established.
Update · Jan 10, 2026, 12:16 PMin_progress
Restatement of the claim: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: Reports indicate China committed to annual purchases reaching 25 million metric tons as part of the agreement, with an initial tranche of about 12 million metric tons to be shipped by January 2026. The arrangement is described as lasting three years, implying ongoing purchases at or above the 25 million-ton level through the period. Reliability note: Coverage from AP News, CNBC, and US News attributes the claim to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and aligns on the three-year framework and start of shipments.
Update · Jan 10, 2026, 10:10 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Public reporting in late 2025 indicated China agreed to 25 million metric tons annually as part of a deal, with initial purchases and commitments noted by AP and US News (2025-10-30). By December 2025, reporting suggested China resumed sizable purchases, including 12 million metric tons in the final months of 2025 and a pledged 25 million annually through 2028, per CNBC and Purdue Ag analyses. A Treasury press release dated January 8, 2026 reiterates the framework and the annual 25 million metric ton target for the three-year window, but independent, year-by-year verification for 2026 remains pending.
Update · Jan 10, 2026, 08:05 AMin_progress
Claim restated: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: The commitment was articulated in Treasury Secretary Bessent's remarks on January 8, 2026, describing a framework in which China would buy 25 million metric tons annually for three years. There is no independently verifiable endorsement or binding agreement publicly published as of January 9, 2026.
Status of completion: There is no publicly available evidence confirming shipments or a formal, verifiable procurement schedule. The claim rests on a spoken statement rather than a documented treaty or contract with trackable delivery data.
Dates and milestones: The frame cites a three-year window starting from 2026, but no milestone shipments, quarterly targets, or official implementation dates beyond the initial remarks have been publicly published.
Reliability and caveats: The assertion relies on a senior official’s remarks rather than a formal signed agreement or independently verifiable trade data. As of the current date, corroborating sources and hard data are lacking, so the claim should be treated as an intended objective awaiting verification.
Update · Jan 10, 2026, 05:24 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The article asserts a new trade framework obligates
China to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence of progress: Public reporting through early January 2026 shows soybean sales to China exist but are far below 25 MMT per year; Reuters estimated total purchases for the period at roughly 8.5–10 million tons, not 25 million annually. No independent, official document confirms a binding, three-year 25 MMT/year commitment.
Status against completion: There is no verifiable record of a formal agreement enforcing a 25
MMT/year obligation for three consecutive years. The available data indicate ongoing trade activity, not the specified completion condition. Accordingly, the claim remains unfulfilled and unconfirmed as completed.
Milestones and dates: The key milestone would be sustained annual purchases of 25 MMT each year for three years. Available coverage does not show that trajectory; early 2026 sales figures fall short of the target.
Source reliability: Reuters provides corroborating, independent trade reporting; DTN offers trade-press context. Neither shows a public, authoritative government document validating the 25 MMT/year obligation at this time.
Update · Jan 10, 2026, 02:13 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The claimed three-year commitment would cover purchases of 25 million metric tons per year for the period following the agreement.
Progress evidence: Reporting in October 2025 attributed an agreement in which Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China would buy at least 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years (AP News, 2025-10-30). By December 2025, U.S. soybean purchases resumed under the deal, with initial deliveries of 12 million metric tons planned through early 2026 and a path toward meeting 25 million metric tons annually, though actual monthly totals in the period remained below that target (CNBC, 2025-12-09).
Status of completion: As of January 9, 2026, the framework appears to be in a phase of implementation rather than completed performance. The three-year commitment would extend roughly from late 2025 through late 2028, but public evidence indicates partial progress toward interim targets (e.g., 12 million metric tons expected end of 2025/early 2026) rather than full adherence to the 25 million metric tons annually yet achieved.
Milestones and dates: Reported milestones include the October 2025 agreement establishing the 25 million metric ton annual figure, and the December 2025 report that China would begin by purchasing 12 million metric tons in the last two months of 2025 and continue into 2026 with the objective of 25 million metric tons annually (AP News 2025-10-30; CNBC 2025-12-09). These sources frame the deal as a multi-year commitment, with implementation steps spanning late 2025 into 2026 and beyond.
Update · Jan 10, 2026, 12:25 AMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China must buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Evidence of progress: Reuters reported that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons this season and at least 25 million metric tons annually for the following three years as part of a broader agreement (Oct 30, 2025).
Completion status: As of 2026-01-09, there is public acknowledgment of the commitments, but no confirmed year-by-year fulfillment is documented; the framework envisions ongoing annual purchases rather than a completed pile of purchases.
Key milestones: The initial 12 million tons for the current season and the three-year annual minimum of 25 million tons were announced in late October 2025, with Treasury remarks referenced again in early January 2026.
Source reliability: The claim relies on Reuters reporting and a U.S. Treasury press-are remarks; Reuters is a reputable wire service, and the Treasury release provides the primary framing of the framework. Cross-source corroboration beyond these outlets is limited at this time.
Context and neutrality: Coverage focuses on stated commitments; it does not reveal independent verification of actual yearly purchases to date and remains contingent on ongoing trade developments.
Update · Jan 09, 2026, 10:34 PMin_progress
Claim restatement: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. Evidence of progress includes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent describing an agreement that envisions 25 million metric tons annually after an initial 12 million metric tons tranche, with the three-year framework lasting through 2028. Current status: As of January 2026, the three-year commitment is not yet fulfilled; ongoing purchases depend on year-by-year execution under the framework. Reliability: The principal sources are reputable outlets (AP News) and the U.S. Treasury press materials, which provide contemporaneous reporting on the initial tranche and framework details.
Update · Jan 09, 2026, 08:06 PMin_progress
Restatement of claim: The article asserts that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. The Treasury source frames the pledge as part of a framework, with a concrete annual purchase target for three consecutive years. The claim hinges on a formal, three-year commitment rather than a one-time purchase.
Evidence of progress: Public reporting in late 2025 indicated China agreed to purchase 25 million metric tons annually for three years, with initial volumes cited as starting from 12 million metric tons by January (i.e., some portion of the annual target was expected upfront). Subsequent coverage notes that shipments and allocations proceeded in the fall of 2025, signaling movement toward the target, but the published figures varied by source and date. Official Treasury material referenced the framework in remarks, but did not provide a definitive, independently verifiable milestone confirming a full three-year compliance.
Evidence of completion status: There is no contemporaneous, authoritative record confirming full annual purchases of 25 million metric tons for three consecutive years as of 2026-01-09. Some outlets reported the target; others noted smaller initial commitments or phased purchases. The lack of a singular, verifiable procurement metric for each of the three years suggests the completion condition has not been demonstrated publicly.
Dates and milestones: Reported developments began in late 2025 with media coverage stating China’s agreement to the 25 million metric ton annual target, and mentions of an initial 12 million metric tons by January 2026. Treasury remarks from January 2026 referenced the framework and the target but did not publish a year-by-year compliance timetable or consolidated purchase totals. Reliability: Coverage from AP, CNBC, US News, and other outlets is mainstream, but the variations in reported volumes and the absence of a definitive, official procurement ledger reduce certainty about the exact status.
Reliability note: Given the time frame and conflicting initial figures, claims about a binding, three-year 25 million metric ton/year commitment require cautious interpretation until independent procurement data or official government confirmations are publicly disclosed. The sources cited are reputable, but the evidence does not conclusively prove full completion to date.
Update · Jan 09, 2026, 06:35 PMin_progress
Restatement of the claim: Under a new trade framework,
China would buy at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three consecutive years. Evidence suggests a framework was announced and publicized, but actual, verifiable adherence to the 25 million metric tons per year over three years remains unconfirmed as of January 9, 2026.
Progress indicators: A Treasury remarks transcript (Jan 8, 2026) asserts that under the framework, China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons annually for the next three years. Independent reporting around late October 2025 indicated China had reached an agreement to buy 25 million metric tons annually, with initial purchases reportedly beginning at a smaller baseline as part of implementation steps. These pieces show the policy was announced and began to be implemented, but do not establish a fully verified, ongoing nationwide purchase of 25 million tons each year.
Evidence of completion status: There is no publicly available, independently verifiable data showing three consecutive years of 25 million metric tons each year has occurred or will occur in 2026–2028. Public reporting instead points to a phased or scaled initial engagement (e.g., 12 million tons) with the explicit target of reaching 25 million annually, but without confirmation of meeting that target for all three years.
Dates and milestones: The source framing dates are October 2025 (initial agreement reporting 25 million tons annually) and January 8–9, 2026 (Treasury remarks reiterating the 25 million-ton framework). The absence of corroborated year-by-year purchase data beyond early milestones keeps the claim in the progress category.
Source reliability note: Coverage from major outlets (AP, CNBC) and official Treasury materials are used. While the Treasury remarks provide authoritative framing of the commitment, independent, consistent verification of year-by-year purchases over the three-year horizon remains lacking as of the current date. The evidence is cautious and suggests ongoing implementation rather than completed fulfillment.
Update · Jan 09, 2026, 04:09 PMin_progress
Claim restated: Under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence to date shows China has resumed and expanded purchases, with total U.S. soybeans bought by China estimated at about 8.5–10 million metric tons by early January 2026 (Reuters, 2026-01-06). There is no public confirmation that China has met the full 25 million-ton annual target for any year; the Treasury remarks reference the framework but do not indicate fulfillment. Status remains in_progress as of early January 2026, with ongoing purchases but no definitive completion date announced.
Update · Jan 09, 2026, 02:08 PMin_progress
Restated claim: Under a new trade framework,
China would purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Evidence of progress: AP reports confirm the commitment and an immediate tranche (about 12 million metric tons through January 2026), with subsequent reporting showing partial fulfillment rather than full annual totals. Progress since the claim: China resumed purchases late 2025, but early volumes were well short of the 25 million-ton annual target, indicating partial progress toward the three-year goal. Completion status: As of early 2026 there is no verified three-year period meeting the full 25 million-ton annual requirement. Reliability: AP is credible, and CNBC/NBC analyses corroborate that purchases are occurring but not yet at the stated target, highlighting ongoing monitoring needs.
Update · Jan 09, 2026, 12:23 PMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for three years. This framing appears in a Treasury press remark dated January 8, 2026, attributed to Secretary Scott Bessent, and in contemporary news reports about a late-2025 agreement. The Treasury source presents the figure as part of a stated framework rather than a legally binding treaty text.
Evidence of progress consists primarily of public statements from Treasury officials and media coverage of an alleged agreement reached by leaders in late October 2025. AP News and other outlets reported that China agreed to buy 25 million metric tons per year for three years, with an initial tranche of 12 million tons cited as beginning in January, according to Treasury Secretary remarks. However, these reports do not show a formal, verifiable contract or accompanying government documents.
There is no publicly available, binding completion document or official confirmation from China confirming a three-year, 25 million ton annual purchase obligation. The only concrete items traced in public records are the Treasury remarks and subsequent media reiterations of the same claim, which themselves rely on statements from U.S. officials rather than independent, verifiable
Chinese sources.
Key dates and milestones identified in the public record include the Treasury remarks on January 8, 2026, and the prior reporting around October 30, 2025, describing an agreement in principle. There is no corroborated evidence of shipments meeting the 25 million ton annual target for 2025, 2026, or 2027, nor a formal mechanism recording compliance or penalties for shortfalls.
Source reliability varies: the Treasury press remarks are an official U.S. government source, but they describe a framework rather than a freely verifiable contract. Independent coverage (AP News, US News) cites Treasury briefings but does not provide independent confirmation from Chinese authorities. Given the absence of a formal, verifiable compliance record, the claim remains unconfirmed and uncertain at this time.
Note on stance and context: coverage of trade and agricultural purchases often intersects with political incentives. The available public material emphasizes intention and framework rather than an established, enforceable commitment, so readers should treat the claim as currently unverified in terms of actual, ongoing fulfillment.
Update · Jan 09, 2026, 10:22 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China must purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Based on publicly available reporting through 2025 and early 2026, there is no clear, verifiable record of China meeting or initiating a binding purchase commitment of 25 million metric tons annually for the three-year period.
Evidence of progress appears limited to statements from officials, with no widely corroborated shipment tallies or official enforceable agreements published by credible, independent bodies. Public trade data and reputable outlets do not show a consistent, verifiable three-year commitment of 25 MMT per year being implemented or officially ratified as of 2026-01-08.
As for completion status, there is no confirmed completion of the three-year obligation by the stated start point. A formal, legally binding framework with verifiable milestones would typically be corroborated by trade data, official bilateral communications, or major outlets reporting milestones; none of these have been consistently demonstrated in the public record.
Dates and milestones cited in various reports are inconsistent across outlets and lack uniform, independent verification. Given the current uncertainty, the status should be described as unconfirmed rather than definitively in effect, pending transparent, corroborated evidence.
Source reliability varies across material available on this claim. The Treasury page included in the prompt presents a stylized narrative without clear, independent corroboration, necessitating caution. Credible monitoring would require corroboration from independent trade data, official bilateral communications, or reputable outlets reporting verifiable milestones. In the absence of such evidence, the claim remains unverified as of 2026-01-08.
Update · Jan 09, 2026, 08:04 AMin_progress
Restated claim: The article states that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years.
Progress to date: Public reporting confirms a pledge including an initial 12 million metric tons by the end of 2025 and at least 25 million metric tons annually thereafter for 2026–2028, as described by Treasury officials and echoed by major outlets (AP, Reuters). The Treasury press release outlines the framework and the purchasing target, while subsequent coverage notes shipments and market activity during the period.
Status of completion: As of January 2026, there is no published, year-by-year tally confirming full completion of 25 million tons in 2026, 2027, and 2028. Early phase-in logistics show progress toward the annual target, but independent verification of each year’s total remains incomplete and contingent on market conditions and implementation.
Dates and milestones: Key milestones cited include an initial 12 million metric tons by January 2026 and a binding commitment to 25 million metric tons annually for three years through 2028. The exact shipment totals for 2026–2028 are not yet finalized in public records.
Source reliability note: Information comes from the U.S. Treasury press release and reputable outlets (AP, Reuters), which are considered high-quality corroboration. Given the evolving data on annual totals, ongoing verification from primary and established secondary sources is warranted.
Update · Jan 09, 2026, 04:52 AMin_progress
The claim states that under a new trade framework,
China will purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years. Reports dated Oct 30, 2025 indicate China would commit to 25 million metric tons per year for three years, with an initial shipment of 12 million tons expected by January 2026. As of Jan 8, 2026, the three-year purchasing period has not yet completed, and no final completion has occurred.
Update · Jan 09, 2026, 03:36 AMin_progress
Restatement of the claim: The article alleges that under a new trade framework,
China is obligated to purchase at least 25 million metric tons of
U.S. soybeans annually for the next three years, starting with an initial tranche and continuing for three consecutive years.
Progress evidence: Reporting from credible outlets, including AP News, indicates that China agreed to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually as part of a broader agreement. AP notes the arrangement began with an initial purchase of 12 million metric tons by the end of January 2026 and is structured to last for three years.
Current status and milestones: As of January 8, 2026, the framework is described as ongoing, with the first-year purchase target of 12 million metric tons already underway and the full 25 million metric tons per year to continue through the three-year term. There is no indication of final completion by that date; milestones hinge on each year’s purchases under the three-year window.
Reliability and interpretation: The AP report is consistent with other mainstream business press coverage, presenting the 12 million-ton initial tranche and the 25 million-ton annual target as part of a multi-year agreement. While coverage highlights the framework’s intended targets, actual monthly or quarterly fulfillment details beyond the stated milestones were not fully enumerated in the available public records.
Conclusion on completion status: Given the public statements and reported milestones, the claim remains technically in_progress as the three-year commitment unfolds. Completion would require three consecutive years of 25 million metric tons per year and disclosure of end-state fulfillment details, which were not provided as of the date in question.
Notes on sources: The credible AP News article (AP News) provides the most reliable account of the asserted purchase commitments and timelines. Other reputable outlets echoed the same framework and milestones. The Treasury press release linked in the user prompt does not appear to corroborate these milestones and should be treated with caution.
Original article · Jan 08, 2026