Treasury reports U.S. economic growth remained solid in 4Q25, with private-sector forecasters’ median GDP forecast at 2.2% annualized for 4Q25.
BEA had not released the advance estimate for 4Q25 GDP as of January 30; the BEA advance estimate is scheduled for February 20, 2026.
Business investment—particularly in data centers, software, and AI-related equipment—helped drive strong growth in 2Q25 and 3Q25 and supported activity into 4Q25.
Labor markets are described as roughly in balance: unemployment averaged about 4.5% in Nov–Dec 2025, overall LFPR averaged 62.5%, and prime-age LFPR averaged about 83.8% in late 2025.
Productivity surged in 2025 (nonfarm business productivity rose 4.1% in 2Q25 and 4.9% in 3Q25), which Treasury says may partly reflect AI adoption.
Core inflation slowed in 4Q25: twelve-month core CPI was 2.6% through December 2025, and the PCE price index was up 2.8% through November 2025.
Treasury highlighted risks to the outlook from energy-price volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, and noted uncertainty about the scale and timing of AI-driven productivity gains.
The statement credits the Administration’s fiscal and regulatory policies as supporting economic growth and energy production in President Trump’s second term.
Follow Up Questions
What is the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee and what role does it play?Expand
The Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) is a federal advisory committee made up of senior buy‑and‑sell‑side market participants that meets quarterly with the Treasury. It provides the Treasury non‑binding, expert observations on the overall economy and technical recommendations on debt‑management issues (auction sizes, maturities, frequency, and related issuance strategy) that Treasury may use when setting its borrowing plan.