THE FOLLOW UP
PROMISE

BEA to publish advance estimate of 4Q25 GDP on Feb. 20, 2026

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BEA publishes its advance estimate for fourth-quarter 2025 GDP (the advance GDP estimate for 4Q25).

Source summary
The U.S. Treasury told the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee that the economy entered 2026 on a "firm footing": GDP growth appears to have stayed solid in 4Q25 (driven by consumer spending and business investment, including AI-related spending), labor markets are roughly balanced with low layoffs but softer hiring, and core inflation eased in 4Q25. Official GDP and December PCE data were delayed by last year’s government shutdown, with the BEA advance GDP estimate scheduled for February 20, 2026. The statement flagged upside inflation risks from energy and geopolitical events and noted uncertainty about the timing and scale of productivity gains from artificial intelligence.
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6 days
Next scheduled update: Feb 20, 2026
6 days

Timeline

  1. Scheduled follow-up · Feb 20, 2026
  2. Completion due · Feb 20, 2026
  3. Update · Feb 11, 2026, 10:53 AMin_progress
    Restatement of the claim: The Treasury-archived notice claimed that the BEA would publish its advance estimate for 4Q25 GDP on February 20, 2026. Current status: BEA has publicly scheduled the 4Q25 GDP Advance Estimate for February 20, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET, but no release has occurred as of the current date. The scheduling information comes from BEA communications and Treasury summaries referencing the BEA schedule. Evidence of progress: BEA communications explicitly updated the release schedule to show GDP (Advance Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025, dated for release on Feb. 20, 2026. BEA blog post and BEA release-schedule notices confirm the targeted publication date and time. The Treasury’s SB0376 press release also reiterates that the BEA will publish the advance estimate on Feb 20, 2026, providing corroboration from the government domain. Evidence of status: As of today, the BEA has not released the 4Q25 Advance Estimate yet; the milestone is the Feb 20 release. The publication date is consistent across BEA and Treasury materials, and no public reports indicate cancellation or rescheduling. Completion will occur with the official release on Feb 20, 2026. Dates and milestones: Target publication is Feb 20, 2026, at 8:30 a.m. ET for the 4Q25 Advance GDP estimate. BEA communications also note related schedule changes leading up to that date. After Feb 20, BEA will issue the official advance estimate followed by later revisions in 2026. Source reliability note: The cited materials are official government sources (BEA and U.S. Treasury), providing authoritative confirmation of the scheduled release date and time.
  4. Scheduled follow-up · Feb 11, 2026
  5. Original article · Feb 02, 2026
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